The First quarterbacks off the board. Are they the best?

[The New Guy]

Add up the number of times the #1 QB was either the best or second best QB in the class and compare that to the second QB taken. I get 8-5 in favor of the 1st QB. And thats not even considering that Luck is hyped as the best prospect since Manning.

I listed the drafts from 98 to 09. That is 12 drafts, so I'm not sure how you came up with 8-5. If you consider Ryan and Stafford as franchise guys, history shows that you have a 25% chance of getting a franchise QB with the first pick.

If I am drafting #1, I don't want the 2nd best QB in the draft. Especially when 2nd best is the likes of Carson Palmer, Micheal Vick, and Vince Young. You can't compare the 1st guy to the second guy taken. You have to compare the first guy to the 2nd best QB taken. Even if you do that, I get 6-6. That is a 50% chance that you get a franchise guy, guys like Vick, Palmer, and Young, or a complete bust.

Before you SFL people go nuts, please understand that I am not saying that Luck is not going to pan out. I'm just showing the history of what has happened over the last 12 years. I'm all for drafting Luck, but I am not for being 0-16, or 1-15. That hole takes a while to crawl out of even if Luck turns out to be what everyone thinks he is. I don't believe there has ever been a team that went 1-15 in a season and gone to the Super Bowl the next year. There have been several teams that went 6-10, 8-8 ect.. and have won the Super Bowl the next year.

 

[Clipse]

I listed the drafts from 98 to 09. That is 12 drafts, so I'm not sure how you came up with 8-5. If you consider Ryan and Stafford as franchise guys, history shows that you have a 25% chance of getting a franchise QB with the first pick.

If I am drafting #1, I don't want the 2nd best QB in the draft. Especially when 2nd best is the likes of Carson Palmer, Micheal Vick, and Vince Young. You can't compare the 1st guy to the second guy taken. You have to compare the first guy to the 2nd best QB taken. Even if you do that, I get 6-6. That is a 50% chance that you get a franchise guy, guys like Vick, Palmer, and Young, or a complete bust.

Before you SFL people go nuts, please understand that I am not saying that Luck is not going to pan out. I'm just showing the history of what has happened over the last 12 years. I'm all for drafting Luck, but I am not for being 0-16, or 1-15. That hole takes a while to crawl out of even if Luck turns out to be what everyone thinks he is. I don't believe there has ever been a team that went 1-15 in a season and gone to the Super Bowl the next year. There have been several teams that went 6-10, 8-8 ect.. and have won the Super Bowl the next year.

Compared to the maybe 5% chance you find a franchise QB in rounds 2-7, free agency, or through trade. I'll take my chances.

 

[Gonzo]

That's not the point at all. It is putting the #1 pick up against the #2 pick. The #1 should have the best odds since he was the first guy picked. The first guy picked is the guy that the team thinks is the best in the draft at that position. More times than not, that does not turn out to be the case.

A stat that totally disregards actual talent and ability. Considering Luck is far superior to any #1 pick since Elway (who seemed to work out quite well), the comparisons are nonsense.

 

[Gonzo]

Compared to the maybe 5% chance you find a franchise QB in rounds 2-7, free agency, or through trade. I'll take my chances.

5% is extremely generous. Actually, has there ever been a franchise QB taken in the 2nd round? I can't think of any off the top of my head, but I can think of plenty that have failed...a large number on the Phins.

 

[hoops]

i think drew brees was a 2nd round pick...unless i'm mistaken

 

[Gonzo]

i think drew brees was a 2nd round pick...unless i'm mistaken

Oh yeah. Wasn't there something funny about it, like it was a spot that is now a 1st rounder?

Just looked it up, you are right, he was the 32nd pick in 2001, so a second rounder (1st rounder by todays standards at that spot). Sweet, lets keep picking 2nd round!

 

[hoops]

i'm not advocating picking qbs in the second round...or waiting on them...i've learned my lesson the last decade plus about that crap

 

[tylerdolphin]

5% is extremely generous. Actually, has there ever been a franchise QB taken in the 2nd round? I can't think of any off the top of my head, but I can think of plenty that have failed...a large number on the Phins.

Favre...

1/100 aint bad.

 

[fishfanmiami]

I listed the drafts from 98 to 09. That is 12 drafts, so I'm not sure how you came up with 8-5. If you consider Ryan and Stafford as franchise guys, history shows that you have a 25% chance of getting a franchise QB with the first pick.

If I am drafting #1, I don't want the 2nd best QB in the draft. Especially when 2nd best is the likes of Carson Palmer, Micheal Vick, and Vince Young. You can't compare the 1st guy to the second guy taken. You have to compare the first guy to the 2nd best QB taken. Even if you do that, I get 6-6. That is a 50% chance that you get a franchise guy, guys like Vick, Palmer, and Young, or a complete bust.

Before you SFL people go nuts, please understand that I am not saying that Luck is not going to pan out. I'm just showing the history of what has happened over the last 12 years. I'm all for drafting Luck, but I am not for being 0-16, or 1-15. That hole takes a while to crawl out of even if Luck turns out to be what everyone thinks he is. I don't believe there has ever been a team that went 1-15 in a season and gone to the Super Bowl the next year. There have been several teams that went 6-10, 8-8 ect.. and have won the Super Bowl the next year.

I agree with most of your post but it left out a team that went from 1-15 to 11-5 and won thier division a few year ago.

 

[Gonzo]

i'm not advocating picking qbs in the second round...or waiting on them...i've learned my lesson the last decade plus about that crap

I know, just being a smartass

 

[Gonzo]

Favre...

1/100 aint bad.

In that case, you should only rely on a second round QB acquired through trade. Given that, perhaps we should put Henne on the block for a 1st rounder+?

2nd Rd. QB's should just immediately request a trade. It's their best chances if you follow completely arbitrary statistics.

 

[Gonzo]

I agree with most of your post but it left out a team that went from 1-15 to 11-5 and won thier division a few year ago.

A team that doesn't remotely resemble the team that is on the field today. It would be amazing to have that O-line again...which is sad...

 

[The New Guy]

5% is extremely generous. Actually, has there ever been a franchise QB taken in the 2nd round? I can't think of any off the top of my head, but I can think of plenty that have failed...a large number on the Phins.

Who said anything about the 2nd round? I'm talking about finding guys when you don't pick #1. The odds are far greater than 5%. Hasselbeck, McNabb, Bulger, Brady, Brees, Roethlisberger, Rivers, Schaub, and Rodgers to name a few.

I agree with most of your post but it left out a team that went from 1-15 to 11-5 and won thier division a few year ago.

Yes, but we got beat in the first round. We also were not as bad as the 1-15 record we posted in 07. A lot of things went wrong that season. This team is not an 0-16, or 1-15 team either.

 

[Swantoon]

Who said anything about the 2nd round? I'm talking about finding guys when you don't pick #1. The odds are far greater than 5%. Hasselbeck, McNabb, Bulger, Brady, Brees, Roethlisberger, Rivers, Schaub, and Rodgers to name a few.




Yes, but we got beat in the first round. We also were not as bad as the 1-15 record we posted in 07. A lot of things went wrong that season. This team is not an 0-16, or 1-15 team either.

We went 1-15 so they were exactly as bad as a 1-15 record. This team has the potential to do the same thing.

 

[Gonzo]

Who said anything about the 2nd round? I'm talking about finding guys when you don't pick #1. The odds are far greater than 5%. Hasselbeck, McNabb, Bulger, Brady, Brees, Roethlisberger, Rivers, Schaub, and Rodgers to name a few.




Yes, but we got beat in the first round. We also were not as bad as the 1-15 record we posted in 07. A lot of things went wrong that season. This team is not an 0-16, or 1-15 team either.

I was just using the second round as a point of reference to show that these stats are arbitrary nonsense.

No, 5% is a bit high IMO, but have fun testing it if you like. You need to compare the success rates of 1st pick QB winner/1st pick QB busts vs all other successful QBs/every QB drafted 2nd pick-UDFA (and literally, every single one).

And again, all those numbers would be completely arbitrary because they completely disregard the individual talent of a player. A more reasonable comparison would be that of Luck's potential vs every other QB with similar potential (e.g. Elway, spare me the Ryan Leaf nonsense please). Your stats include years with extremely weak QB classes where a team was more likely to reach with a number 1 pick (i.e. 2002 or 2007) or years when a team fell for 1 year wonders (Alex Smith or Ryan Leaf, though the Colts didn't fall for that).

Point is, these stats don't mean anything. If we're in position to draft Luck, there isn't a single excuse on earth for not picking him. And it may be worth going that extra mile to grab him over the lesser talent available (though still Barkley and Jones are still good prospects, they carry far more risk than Luck).

Also, this is an 0-4 team. Nothing more. Nothing less (if that were possible).