This is my humble opinion on how our front office might be prioritizing roster moves as the trade deadline approaches. Of course, us fans all have our opinions on what should be done or what areas are weak, but ultimately the only thing that matters is what the front office thinks, so I like to try to guess at their point of view to predict what moves might be made.
1. Obtain picks for players that otherwise will be cut. With Roth coming back, this creates an excess of one player that must be "subtracted." The first priority as the trade deadline approaches MUST BE to not have that go to waste, especially in a deeper than normal draft. Whether it's trying to trade the guy most likely to be cut or whether it's trying to get picks for the guy coming back, there absolutely has to be a move here. Since OLB is a position of excess, these are all the guys that could be traded as part of this thinking:
Roth
Moses
Anderson
Note that this may factor in to being part of #2, 3, 4, 5, or 6, but figuring out what to do with the extra player is the first priority.
2. Find a better replacement for Cobbs (if one is out there). Cobbs had a lot of roles and the coaching staff is moving quickly to try to fill those roles. Obviously, it's unlikely they will find a single player to do all of what Cobbs did. The signing of Sheets might fill the role of fourth running back and pass-catcher, but he is very raw and you need more than a developmental guy to do the important things Cobbs does. Hilliard will probably assume the blocking and ST coverage duties Cobbs held. KR is one final responsibility the are looking to fill. The interest in Cribbs was probably real but the price is probably too high. They will probably go with Ginn here, but begrudgingly. Roscoe Parrish is another option that I think the front office looked into, but the Bills will not trade him within the division.
3. Pick up unexpected value by trading players to teams with needs. Teams gearing up for playoff runs will overpay to fill holes. Where are playoff-bound teams (or teams that think they are) like the Bengals, Broncos, or 49ers weak? What positions of relative depth can we take them for a ride on? OLB? DE? Ireland will be looking to pick up a bonus mid-to-late rounder here, regardless of whether he feels we are playoff bound. I don't care what anyone else says, this front office will always look to be "sellers" at the trade deadline FIRST, and "buyers" only if there is unexpected value.
4. Add another throwing threat to the Wildcat or spread package. I think this is a "nice-to" they are looking for with every WR/KR they are looking at. Matt Jones and Cribbs can both throw. Does this indicate Pat White is not ready to contribute as a passer this season? Maybe. Does this mean they don't trust Ginn with making decisions in situations where he had a pass/run option? Maybe. Does this mean they aren't high on inserting Thigpen into the Wildcat this year? Maybe. The key here is to have as many people handle snaps or the ball as possible to completely confuse the D. Why is Ricky taking snaps out of the Wildcat? Why did Pat White get snaps late in the 4th quarter? You saw what happens...the plays are relatively safe but the more looks you can give, the more opposing defenses freak out. It's not about having the flashy big play - it's about getting the crucial 5 yards by incurring a moment's hesitation by the defense.
5. Upgrade a defensive position not called safety. I think if an opportunity is there to upgrade a defensive position, they will look at it closely. However, I doubt they do anything at safety because of the money that is tied up there. As a relatively low priority though, I doubt anything happens here unless value (key word!) pops up with an unexpected surprise on some team's trading block. Asomugha for instance - unexpected player on the block - doesn't mean we'll get him (who knows the price), but those are the types of opportunities I'm talking about. A cover ILB is probably on the list here, but don't know who might be available.
6. Add a #1 receiver. As much as we pine for a receiver because we fans believe it will aid Henne and make this offense unstoppable, I don't think this is AT ALL a high priority for the front office. It can at least wait until the offseason. The offense is already pretty darn good (putting 31 up on the Jets with no defensive turnovers or field position help is pretty convincing), and if anything the front office will be looking to shore up the issues that prevent them from using more passes out of the Wildcat. It's still on their priority list because it *is* a need for the team, but being this low, they will only jump on it if they see significant value. Yes, a 2nd and a 5th (rumored price for Bowe) is a steal and they would be foolish not to consider, but they will easily be outbid. With Chad Henne's arm and the current crop of reliable receivers and possibly a newfound big play threat to Ginn, the offense is fine for this season. We're a smashmouth running team that doesn't need to unload picks to be a very effective offense this season.
That's my guess at the front office's priority list this weekend as Ireland works the phones. No huge moves, getting a pick here or there if they can, and possibly picking up a PR/KR without overpaying (i.e., no Cribbs). As much as I may want otherwise, I think the trade deadline passes with no Bowe, no Cribbs. But knowing this front office, surely something unexpected will happen.
1. Obtain picks for players that otherwise will be cut. With Roth coming back, this creates an excess of one player that must be "subtracted." The first priority as the trade deadline approaches MUST BE to not have that go to waste, especially in a deeper than normal draft. Whether it's trying to trade the guy most likely to be cut or whether it's trying to get picks for the guy coming back, there absolutely has to be a move here. Since OLB is a position of excess, these are all the guys that could be traded as part of this thinking:
Roth
Moses
Anderson
Note that this may factor in to being part of #2, 3, 4, 5, or 6, but figuring out what to do with the extra player is the first priority.
2. Find a better replacement for Cobbs (if one is out there). Cobbs had a lot of roles and the coaching staff is moving quickly to try to fill those roles. Obviously, it's unlikely they will find a single player to do all of what Cobbs did. The signing of Sheets might fill the role of fourth running back and pass-catcher, but he is very raw and you need more than a developmental guy to do the important things Cobbs does. Hilliard will probably assume the blocking and ST coverage duties Cobbs held. KR is one final responsibility the are looking to fill. The interest in Cribbs was probably real but the price is probably too high. They will probably go with Ginn here, but begrudgingly. Roscoe Parrish is another option that I think the front office looked into, but the Bills will not trade him within the division.
3. Pick up unexpected value by trading players to teams with needs. Teams gearing up for playoff runs will overpay to fill holes. Where are playoff-bound teams (or teams that think they are) like the Bengals, Broncos, or 49ers weak? What positions of relative depth can we take them for a ride on? OLB? DE? Ireland will be looking to pick up a bonus mid-to-late rounder here, regardless of whether he feels we are playoff bound. I don't care what anyone else says, this front office will always look to be "sellers" at the trade deadline FIRST, and "buyers" only if there is unexpected value.
4. Add another throwing threat to the Wildcat or spread package. I think this is a "nice-to" they are looking for with every WR/KR they are looking at. Matt Jones and Cribbs can both throw. Does this indicate Pat White is not ready to contribute as a passer this season? Maybe. Does this mean they don't trust Ginn with making decisions in situations where he had a pass/run option? Maybe. Does this mean they aren't high on inserting Thigpen into the Wildcat this year? Maybe. The key here is to have as many people handle snaps or the ball as possible to completely confuse the D. Why is Ricky taking snaps out of the Wildcat? Why did Pat White get snaps late in the 4th quarter? You saw what happens...the plays are relatively safe but the more looks you can give, the more opposing defenses freak out. It's not about having the flashy big play - it's about getting the crucial 5 yards by incurring a moment's hesitation by the defense.
5. Upgrade a defensive position not called safety. I think if an opportunity is there to upgrade a defensive position, they will look at it closely. However, I doubt they do anything at safety because of the money that is tied up there. As a relatively low priority though, I doubt anything happens here unless value (key word!) pops up with an unexpected surprise on some team's trading block. Asomugha for instance - unexpected player on the block - doesn't mean we'll get him (who knows the price), but those are the types of opportunities I'm talking about. A cover ILB is probably on the list here, but don't know who might be available.
6. Add a #1 receiver. As much as we pine for a receiver because we fans believe it will aid Henne and make this offense unstoppable, I don't think this is AT ALL a high priority for the front office. It can at least wait until the offseason. The offense is already pretty darn good (putting 31 up on the Jets with no defensive turnovers or field position help is pretty convincing), and if anything the front office will be looking to shore up the issues that prevent them from using more passes out of the Wildcat. It's still on their priority list because it *is* a need for the team, but being this low, they will only jump on it if they see significant value. Yes, a 2nd and a 5th (rumored price for Bowe) is a steal and they would be foolish not to consider, but they will easily be outbid. With Chad Henne's arm and the current crop of reliable receivers and possibly a newfound big play threat to Ginn, the offense is fine for this season. We're a smashmouth running team that doesn't need to unload picks to be a very effective offense this season.
That's my guess at the front office's priority list this weekend as Ireland works the phones. No huge moves, getting a pick here or there if they can, and possibly picking up a PR/KR without overpaying (i.e., no Cribbs). As much as I may want otherwise, I think the trade deadline passes with no Bowe, no Cribbs. But knowing this front office, surely something unexpected will happen.
