Kamikaze
Cunning Linguist
First off, everything I'm going to predict assumes the Dolphins winning out. I still believe that is the only realistic chance the Dolphins have of even sniffing the playoffs this season. Moving on, the division leaders in each AFC division seemingly have a stranglehold on their respective championships. Indianapolis (10-1), San Diego (9-2), Baltimore (9-2), and New England (8-3) all have leads of at least 2 games with 5 left to play. Of the 4, only San Diego has any real threats, and San Diego is just too good to blow it. That was pretty easy, so let's get complicated with the AFC Wild Card race.
Suddenly, that first wild card spot doesn't seem so safe! Denver blew a major chance to get a 2 game lead on it, and as a result many teams (including the Dolphins) playoff chances improved greatly this weekend. Let's look at the standings. I will not be including 4 win teams because I don't see a 9-7 finish as playoff worthy this year.
Kansas City (7-4)
Denver (7-4)
New York Jets (6-5)
Cincinnati (6-5)
Jacksonville (6-5)
Buffalo (5-6)
Miami (5-6)
Well, a 10-6 Miami team stacks up well against the remaining opposition. Let's go one opponnent at a time and for simplicity sake only deal with head to head tiebreakers, because in a 3 or more way tie, the Jets can and may royally screw things up. I'll explain that when I get to them. First, starting with Kansas City. Their stay at the top of the Wild Card standings should be brief, as they have an absolutely brutal schedule remaining. They have to claw their way through Baltimore, San Diego, and Jacksonville yet. I can definitely see a loss in 2 of those 3, and a 10-6 Kansas City loses to Miami in the tiebreaker.
Denver shouldn't be in this discussion, but there they sit in the number 2 wild card spot. Denver doesn't have a gimmie schedule remaining either, with games against Seattle, San Diego, and Cincinnati. San Francisco could also surprise them. However, Denver does have the best conference record out of the above teams. Miami will finish at best with a 7-5 AFC record. Denver just needs one more AFC win to assure themselves of having a tiebreaker against Miami. However, if they should lose to San Diego and Cincy and win the rest, their 10-6 record coupled with a 7-5 AFC record would make things mighty interesting in the tiebreaker department, as it would move to common opponents. However, even there there would be a tie with both teams being 3-2 against common opponents. Then it would move to strength of victory, and that is totally up in their air right now. Denver would make for a very interesting tiebreaker if they finish 7-5 in the AFC!
Yes, the New York Jets, whom I said hold the key to the Fins playoff future. Should there be multiple teams at 10-6 with the Jets included among them at the end of the season, it is absolutely critical that the Fins finish at number 2 in the division. The three or more tiebreaker procedure would eliminate the Dolphins right away if they were to lose the division tiebreaker to the Jets. This simply can't happen and the Jets absolutely need to lose one other game (besides to the Fins of course) in their remaining schedule. The next three weeks are critical, as Green Bay, Minny, and Buffalo are all capable of taking down the Jets. If they get through them unscathed, then the entire season might come down to cheering on Oakland in Week 17. Let's hope it doesn't come to that. You better believe that even if the Jets can't win any tiebreakers against teams in other divisions, and is assured of missing the playoffs at 10-6, they will be more than happy to ruin Miami's chances by simply finishing number 2 in the division. Seriously, **** the Jets. They need to lose.
From here on things get much easier. The Bengals are at 6-5 and though still in the playoff race, are teetering on the brink. They have games remaining against Baltimore, Indy, Denver, and Pittsburgh in the last game. I can surely see two losses in there somewhere, though I prefer they beat Denver and really throw the playoff picture into a lurch. I'm definitely cheering on Baltimore and Indy these next couple weeks. However, it is critical that they lose two more games. A 10-6 finish by Cincy would give them a 8-4 AFC record which would trump Miami at 7-5. Cincy is a thorn in Miami's side much like the Jets, but unlike the Jets, Cincy has a brutal schedule remaining. They shouldn't be a problem come Week 17.
Oh Jacksonville, how far you've fallen. By my assumptions Miami already has them taken care of. Even if Jacksonville finishes 10-6, that one loss would be against Miami, and they'd automatically lose in the head-to-head tiebreaker. Looking ahead to their game against Miami, I see a Miami team riding high on a winning streak which should provide all the momentum they need to beat a demoralized and injured Jacksonville squad. Jacksonville won't go down without a fight though, because they should know just as well as I do how important this game will be in the grand scheme of things.
Miami. Duh. However, I'm sure other fans are looking at them like I'm looking at other teams, and dismissing them because of how tough their remaining schedule is. I don't blame them. Jacksonville, New England, Buffalo, NY Jets, Indianapolis. Take your pick, because any team up there is capable of beating the Dolphins. It's important to keep in mind that though the Dolphins are capable of winning out, it's unlikely. A loss against New England, Buffalo, or Indy would be a major setback and all but do them in, but if a bunch of teams fall to 9-7 then there's still a glimmer of hope. But that would require a monumental Jets collapse at the same time, and I don't see that happening...as much as I'd like it to, it won't happen. Miami needs to finish 10-6 to have any realistic playoff chance. They just need to take care of business one game at a time.
Buffalo is a surprise, as they're still in there hanging tough. However, they too have a brutal schedule remaining, and against Baltimore AND San Diego to boot. Needless to say, Buffalo isn't in this playoff chase. But who knows, maybe a Bills fan out there is doing the same thing as me. If Buffalo were to win out, they'd definitely be a headache on the tiebreakers. But they won't. They're Buffalo.
So, this will be the week that determines whether Miami's playoff chances can be seriously discussed in the media or not. If Cincy, the Jets, Kansas City, and Denver all lose this week, I'd definitely expect the dicussions to heat up. However, I'm not expecting the Jets or the Chiefs to lose this week, and that would thus stall any serious playoff talk about Miami. However, beating New England the following week would make the Dolphins impossible to ignore.
Flame away for even suggesting a team that's currently 5-6 can hope to get in, but I still have hope in our Fins.
Suddenly, that first wild card spot doesn't seem so safe! Denver blew a major chance to get a 2 game lead on it, and as a result many teams (including the Dolphins) playoff chances improved greatly this weekend. Let's look at the standings. I will not be including 4 win teams because I don't see a 9-7 finish as playoff worthy this year.
Kansas City (7-4)
Denver (7-4)
New York Jets (6-5)
Cincinnati (6-5)
Jacksonville (6-5)
Buffalo (5-6)
Miami (5-6)
Well, a 10-6 Miami team stacks up well against the remaining opposition. Let's go one opponnent at a time and for simplicity sake only deal with head to head tiebreakers, because in a 3 or more way tie, the Jets can and may royally screw things up. I'll explain that when I get to them. First, starting with Kansas City. Their stay at the top of the Wild Card standings should be brief, as they have an absolutely brutal schedule remaining. They have to claw their way through Baltimore, San Diego, and Jacksonville yet. I can definitely see a loss in 2 of those 3, and a 10-6 Kansas City loses to Miami in the tiebreaker.
Denver shouldn't be in this discussion, but there they sit in the number 2 wild card spot. Denver doesn't have a gimmie schedule remaining either, with games against Seattle, San Diego, and Cincinnati. San Francisco could also surprise them. However, Denver does have the best conference record out of the above teams. Miami will finish at best with a 7-5 AFC record. Denver just needs one more AFC win to assure themselves of having a tiebreaker against Miami. However, if they should lose to San Diego and Cincy and win the rest, their 10-6 record coupled with a 7-5 AFC record would make things mighty interesting in the tiebreaker department, as it would move to common opponents. However, even there there would be a tie with both teams being 3-2 against common opponents. Then it would move to strength of victory, and that is totally up in their air right now. Denver would make for a very interesting tiebreaker if they finish 7-5 in the AFC!
Yes, the New York Jets, whom I said hold the key to the Fins playoff future. Should there be multiple teams at 10-6 with the Jets included among them at the end of the season, it is absolutely critical that the Fins finish at number 2 in the division. The three or more tiebreaker procedure would eliminate the Dolphins right away if they were to lose the division tiebreaker to the Jets. This simply can't happen and the Jets absolutely need to lose one other game (besides to the Fins of course) in their remaining schedule. The next three weeks are critical, as Green Bay, Minny, and Buffalo are all capable of taking down the Jets. If they get through them unscathed, then the entire season might come down to cheering on Oakland in Week 17. Let's hope it doesn't come to that. You better believe that even if the Jets can't win any tiebreakers against teams in other divisions, and is assured of missing the playoffs at 10-6, they will be more than happy to ruin Miami's chances by simply finishing number 2 in the division. Seriously, **** the Jets. They need to lose.
From here on things get much easier. The Bengals are at 6-5 and though still in the playoff race, are teetering on the brink. They have games remaining against Baltimore, Indy, Denver, and Pittsburgh in the last game. I can surely see two losses in there somewhere, though I prefer they beat Denver and really throw the playoff picture into a lurch. I'm definitely cheering on Baltimore and Indy these next couple weeks. However, it is critical that they lose two more games. A 10-6 finish by Cincy would give them a 8-4 AFC record which would trump Miami at 7-5. Cincy is a thorn in Miami's side much like the Jets, but unlike the Jets, Cincy has a brutal schedule remaining. They shouldn't be a problem come Week 17.
Oh Jacksonville, how far you've fallen. By my assumptions Miami already has them taken care of. Even if Jacksonville finishes 10-6, that one loss would be against Miami, and they'd automatically lose in the head-to-head tiebreaker. Looking ahead to their game against Miami, I see a Miami team riding high on a winning streak which should provide all the momentum they need to beat a demoralized and injured Jacksonville squad. Jacksonville won't go down without a fight though, because they should know just as well as I do how important this game will be in the grand scheme of things.
Miami. Duh. However, I'm sure other fans are looking at them like I'm looking at other teams, and dismissing them because of how tough their remaining schedule is. I don't blame them. Jacksonville, New England, Buffalo, NY Jets, Indianapolis. Take your pick, because any team up there is capable of beating the Dolphins. It's important to keep in mind that though the Dolphins are capable of winning out, it's unlikely. A loss against New England, Buffalo, or Indy would be a major setback and all but do them in, but if a bunch of teams fall to 9-7 then there's still a glimmer of hope. But that would require a monumental Jets collapse at the same time, and I don't see that happening...as much as I'd like it to, it won't happen. Miami needs to finish 10-6 to have any realistic playoff chance. They just need to take care of business one game at a time.
Buffalo is a surprise, as they're still in there hanging tough. However, they too have a brutal schedule remaining, and against Baltimore AND San Diego to boot. Needless to say, Buffalo isn't in this playoff chase. But who knows, maybe a Bills fan out there is doing the same thing as me. If Buffalo were to win out, they'd definitely be a headache on the tiebreakers. But they won't. They're Buffalo.
So, this will be the week that determines whether Miami's playoff chances can be seriously discussed in the media or not. If Cincy, the Jets, Kansas City, and Denver all lose this week, I'd definitely expect the dicussions to heat up. However, I'm not expecting the Jets or the Chiefs to lose this week, and that would thus stall any serious playoff talk about Miami. However, beating New England the following week would make the Dolphins impossible to ignore.
Flame away for even suggesting a team that's currently 5-6 can hope to get in, but I still have hope in our Fins.
