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https://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2018/week-2-dvoa-ratings
"The Dolphins are No. 1 on defense by a fairly big margin."
"I did go into the archives to see what happens with defenses that play as well as Miami has played early this season. The Dolphins currently have defensive DVOA of -40.8%. Thirty-seven different defenses since 2002 have put up defensive DVOA of -30% or better after Weeks 1-2, without considering opponent adjustments. These teams ended the season with an average defensive DVOA of -9.5%, and an average defensive rank of 8.5. However, that's dragged down a bit by a few defenses where the first couple weeks were particularly a big mirage, including the 2012 Eagles and 2014 Redskins. The median defensive rank of these 37 teams was fifth at the end of the year. Only seven of the 37 teams ended the year with a defensive DVOA above 0% (i.e. worse than average).
If we want to look at the Dolphins and Jets together, I'll tell you that 32 teams since 2002 ranked first or second in defensive DVOA after Week 2, without considering opponent adjustments. The average rank of these teams at the end of the year was 7.5, and the median rank was fourth. So there's a good chance that the Miami Dolphins defense has, in fact, improved significantly from last year's finish of 28th in defensive DVOA."
"When you combine that with a 2-0 record and a schedule that we rated among the league's easiest before the season, you end up with Miami now ranking FIFTH in our playoff odds and a shocking SIXTH in Super Bowl odds. Yes, this is probably too high. Miami's true playoff odds are likely lower than we are showing them right now. But they are also likely higher than conventional wisdom thinks they are right now. And the Dolphins have a nice winnable game this week with Oakland coming to down. It's not ridiculous to think the Dolphins could start the season 3-0."
"The Dolphins are No. 1 on defense by a fairly big margin."
"I did go into the archives to see what happens with defenses that play as well as Miami has played early this season. The Dolphins currently have defensive DVOA of -40.8%. Thirty-seven different defenses since 2002 have put up defensive DVOA of -30% or better after Weeks 1-2, without considering opponent adjustments. These teams ended the season with an average defensive DVOA of -9.5%, and an average defensive rank of 8.5. However, that's dragged down a bit by a few defenses where the first couple weeks were particularly a big mirage, including the 2012 Eagles and 2014 Redskins. The median defensive rank of these 37 teams was fifth at the end of the year. Only seven of the 37 teams ended the year with a defensive DVOA above 0% (i.e. worse than average).
If we want to look at the Dolphins and Jets together, I'll tell you that 32 teams since 2002 ranked first or second in defensive DVOA after Week 2, without considering opponent adjustments. The average rank of these teams at the end of the year was 7.5, and the median rank was fourth. So there's a good chance that the Miami Dolphins defense has, in fact, improved significantly from last year's finish of 28th in defensive DVOA."
"When you combine that with a 2-0 record and a schedule that we rated among the league's easiest before the season, you end up with Miami now ranking FIFTH in our playoff odds and a shocking SIXTH in Super Bowl odds. Yes, this is probably too high. Miami's true playoff odds are likely lower than we are showing them right now. But they are also likely higher than conventional wisdom thinks they are right now. And the Dolphins have a nice winnable game this week with Oakland coming to down. It's not ridiculous to think the Dolphins could start the season 3-0."
