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The Miami Dolphins had one of the best drafts per Warren Sharp 2nd Best

MDFINFAN

MDFINFAN

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If you don’t know, Warren Sharp is a trailblazer in the NFL world of advanced metrics and analytics, and he charted the “value” of a team’s draft based on players either going higher than expected or lower than expected.

The “value” is based on the expectation of when a player should be drafted, compared to the pick used to draft the player is called “DCOE”.


“The resulting metric is called DCOE, standing for Draft Capital Over Expectation, and measures expected capital used on a prospect vs. the actual capital used.” - Warren Sharp “Most & Least Valuable 2024 NFL Draft Classes”
Click to expand...

In layman’s terms, if a team drafts a player later than expected, that’s a positive value added. If a team reaches on a player, that’s a negative value added.

Article: https://www.thephinsider.com/2024/4...the-the-best-drafts-per-warren-sharp-2024-nfl
Directly to Warren's page on this subject: https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/analysis/nfl-draft-grades-analysis-draft-capital-2024/

GMNVDi5WUAAVxGD
 
MDFINFAN said:
When you think about it, no one's draft means anything right now..but this was talking of value, nothing else.
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But it's based on the "perceived" value of the player, not the actual value. That's why it's meaningless. So what if the Dolphins picked someone in the 6th round that the consensus of draftniks forecasted to be picked in the 3rd or 4th round. How many draftniks figured Tom Brady was the best QB of that draft? It's great we can get some optimism in picking higher perceived value guys, but it's only as good as how accurate those draftniks are in their assessments.
 
It's a great way to look at things, but it still comes down to where you think players should have been drafted, and that is the list that's difficult to make. Everyone varies on that (but sure, you could use pure stats).

Pure stats when dealing with future athletic talent is not guaranteed to be correct. I certainly hope we did well. Wait a few years. Patience. 😀
 
BrowardDolfan said:
But it's based on the "perceived" value of the player, not the actual value. That's why it's meaningless. So what if the Dolphins picked someone in the 6th round that the consensus of draftniks forecasted to be picked in the 3rd or 4th round. How many draftniks figured Tom Brady was the best QB of that draft? It's great we can get some optimism in picking higher perceived value guys, but it's only as good as how accurate those draftniks are in their assessments.
Click to expand...
Lol. We typed the same thing at the same time. Breakfast for me here in Spain on my travels.
 
BrowardDolfan said:
But it's based on the "perceived" value of the player, not the actual value. That's why it's meaningless. So what if the Dolphins picked someone in the 6th round that the consensus of draftniks forecasted to be picked in the 3rd or 4th round. How many draftniks figured Tom Brady was the best QB of that draft? It's great we can get some optimism in picking higher perceived value guys, but it's only as good as how accurate those draftniks are in their assessments.
Click to expand...
Well, the guy did do his research, and it's not the first times he's done this. Yes he gave us a A for our draft. But he noted that this does not predict how well a player will do in the NFL. Our own Mostert is point one of that, 10 years as a UDFA shows everything about the drafting business. But based on all the boards out there, this was the best predictor of value. Again, it's doesn't predict how well a player will play. Keep that in mind. Only we drafted players after most thought they'd be drafted, thus giving them value for when they were picked. I will say it one more time. THIS DOES NOT PREDICT HOW WELL THEY WILL PERFORM IN THE NFL.
 
Look at Trevor Lawrence In Jacksonville, he did ok but I don't think he resembles a first pick of the draft, maybe 3 or 4 at the highest, college teams are stacked with talent due to the transfer portal and kids are coming in as a group and making plays, good players makes the team great, Prince didn't do diddly squat his first year because the talent wasn't good enough, the same with Tua, I would have chosen Tua over Lawrence if they were in the same draft class.
 
MDFINFAN said:
If you don’t know, Warren Sharp is a trailblazer in the NFL world of advanced metrics and analytics, and he charted the “value” of a team’s draft based on players either going higher than expected or lower than expected.

The “value” is based on the expectation of when a player should be drafted, compared to the pick used to draft the player is called “DCOE”.




In layman’s terms, if a team drafts a player later than expected, that’s a positive value added. If a team reaches on a player, that’s a negative value added.

Article: https://www.thephinsider.com/2024/4...the-the-best-drafts-per-warren-sharp-2024-nfl
Directly to Warren's page on this subject: https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/analysis/nfl-draft-grades-analysis-draft-capital-2024/

GMNVDi5WUAAVxGD
Click to expand...

It may mean nothing, but we all know the response here if MIA and the Jags were reversed
 
BrowardDolfan said:
But it's based on the "perceived" value of the player, not the actual value. That's why it's meaningless. So what if the Dolphins picked someone in the 6th round that the consensus of draftniks forecasted to be picked in the 3rd or 4th round. How many draftniks figured Tom Brady was the best QB of that draft? It's great we can get some optimism in picking higher perceived value guys, but it's only as good as how accurate those draftniks are in their assessments.
Click to expand...
Of course it's all meaningless as far as who's going to work out or not, but it's not meaningless as far as how each team used it's resources. For example, if you pick a guy 30 picks too high, that means you probably could have picked another player and then that same player a round later. I saw elsewhere a list of the top teams over the last several years ranked by a similar exercise and they're all successful teams. So I think it definitely means something, even if it's not what people would want (guaranteed all-pros! -yeah, that's not a thing).

Actually, forget about the average of the last few years, just looking at the top and bottom five of this year it's easy to see which are the well run teams and which aren't. Which is the top 5? and which the bottom five?
  1. Detroit Lions
  2. Miami Dolphins
  3. Kansas City Chiefs
  4. Pittsburgh Steelers
  5. Philadelphia Eagles
Or
  1. Atlanta Falcons
  2. Jacksonville Jaguars
  3. Arizona Cardinals
  4. New England Patriots
  5. San Francisco 49ers
 
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MDFINFAN said:
Well, the guy did do his research, and it's not the first times he's done this. Yes he gave us a A for our draft. But he noted that this does not predict how well a player will do in the NFL. Our own Mostert is point one of that, 10 years as a UDFA shows everything about the drafting business. But based on all the boards out there, this was the best predictor of value. Again, it's doesn't predict how well a player will play. Keep that in mind. Only we drafted players after most thought they'd be drafted, thus giving them value for when they were picked. I will say it one more time. THIS DOES NOT PREDICT HOW WELL THEY WILL PERFORM IN THE NFL.
Click to expand...
Agree that all morning-after analyses are predictive not conclusive, and only time will really tell. However, predraft evaluations are not totally meaningless, and all things being equal we should prefer more of this "grain of salt value" not less. Not all fast-looking cars are fast and not all slow-looking cars are slow, but if you have to pick based on looks alone go with fast, right?
 
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