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The Misleading Statistic of Strength of Schedule

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Of course I've heard it before, and now we hear it again this morning--Miami is "only 1-2" against the current crop of playoff teams. Miami "only beat two teams with winning records". But this is all based on where the teams finished and takes nothing circumstantial into account.

I'm not going to lie--we didn't have a gargantuan schedule. Then again, who in the AFC East did? Strength of schedule only determines two of your opponents now. But it wasn't as 'easy' as some made it seem anyway. Let's take a closer look at our victories...

1. New England Patriots, 11-5: We beat them before they really hit their stride, sure, but they had played well, if not dominant in prior weeks, and it was at Gillette stadium, a place where we typically get torn up.

2. San Diego Chargers, 8-8: They had a .500 record at the time, but that was partially due to Ed Hoculi's blunder. They were on a two game winning streak, and had just hung 48 points on the Jets two weeks earlier. No, they still hadn't regained their form, but they looked like they might be close to regaining some swagger.

3. Buffalo Bills, 7-9: Buffalo was 5-1 at the time of the first meeting! While they had played a softer schedule and suffered an embarassing loss to Arizona, the Cards did go 3-1 against the AFC East. Besides, you beat the opponents you play, and Buffalo was coming off of a key win versus San Diego. Miami's victory actually helped begin their downward spiral.

4. Denver Broncos, 8-8: They were coming off of a two game losing streak, but they were still 4-3 at the time, and they aren't exactly easy to beat at Invesco. And Denver's knock was their defense, but Miami won by flustering the Broncos' offense.

5. Seattle Seahawks, 4-12: Not going to argue here, they were definitely bad.

6. Oakland Raiders, 5-11: See above.

7. St. Louis Rams, 2-14: Not a good team, but it was with Steven Jackson, who when he was in the lineup, made them look much better.

8. Buffalo Bills, 7-9: This Bills team was backsliding and didn't have their starting quarterback, but they still had a .500 record at the time. Buffalo wouldn't have had a losing record if Miami hadn't beaten them twice.

9. San Francisco 49ers, 7-9: This is not the same 49ers team that went on a six game losing streak. This was a physical, confident team who had just beaten two other AFC East foes, and would go on to win 5 of their last 7. May have had a losing record, but Miami played them while they were hot.

10. Kansas City Chiefs, 2-14: No comment, but Miami had lost in its last 3 meetings in Arrowhead dating back to 1981.

11. New York Jets, 9-7: Say what you will about Favre, this was a team with a winning record that was once playoff bound, and Pennington was able to fool the defense several times. A few more plays executed on offense (Wildcat flicker, botched punt snap),and this one might have been uglier.

So all in all....we didn't play Goliaths, but doesn't this paint a better picture?
 
Anyone that says we had an "easy" schedule is either mad their team didn't make it, or is jealous. As you clearly illustrated there simply is no such thing in the NFL, the schedules are determined long before anyone is aware who will be good and who won't. You think last year after going 1-15 anyone looked at us on their schedule and was shivering?

The bottom line is we had teams to beat that we're assigned to us, and we did it. We didn't choose them. The Dolphins did what was nessecary to make it this far, and they will continue to do so as they finish out this remarkable comeback season.
 
I like when Jets & Pats fans say we had an easy schedule. Especially since it was pretty much the same as Miami's. :lol:
 
Maybe it's good that people take us lightly and give us no respect. That way when we play them we can sucker punch them and come out with a victory.

Hell nobody thought the 1980 usa Hockey Team would beat the russians, the russians took them lightly and BAM the US won.
 
How can you be considered as having an easy schedule when you were the worst team in the league last year? Now, New England and the Giants had the easy schedules.:)
 
We had the same schedule as the rest of our division except for two games. We played Houston and Baltimore, Buffalo played Jacksonville and Cleveland, New England played Indianapolis and Pittsburgh and the Jets played Tennessee and Cincinnati. If anything, Buffalo had it easier that us; New England definitely more difficult, but they did come off of a undefeated regular season and although the Jets had Tennessee, they played Cinci where as we played Baltimore out of that division.
 
I like when Jets & Pats fans say we had an easy schedule. Especially since it was pretty much the same as Miami's. :lol:
Yeah, my question for those dbags is, "if its so easy why are your teams not undefeated?"
surely if its so easy that if miami can make it through with an 11-5 record, then the great Lord Favre should have coasted on undefeated season even with poor play from himself and the team.
I'm sure the Pats fans feel Cassel is better than Penne, if it was such an easy schedule why arent the pats 15-1(cuz they would have to split with lord Favre) and coasting into the playoffs?
Friggin people cant stand to see anybody get ahead
 
Yeah, my question for those dbags is, "if its so easy why are your teams not undefeated?"
surely if its so easy that if miami can make it through with an 11-5 record, then the great Lord Favre should have coasted on undefeated season even with poor play from himself and the team.
I'm sure the Pats fans feel Cassel is better than Penne, if it was such an easy schedule why arent the pats 15-1(cuz they would have to split with lord Favre) and coasting into the playoffs?
Friggin people cant stand to see anybody get ahead

best comeback I've heard yet for this ridiculous argument. :up:
 
Teams in the AFC East that say we had an easy schedule are idiots. The ONLY difference between our schedules were two games. Houston and Baltimore. We lost BOTH games. So it was really a disadvantage for us.
 
If you really take a look at Baltimore's schedule, its not all that impressive either!
take a look and you'll notice they fattened up on: 4-11-1 Cinncinati (twice), 4-12 Cleveland (twice), 5-11 Oakland, 5-11 Jacksonville, 8-8 Houston & 8-8 Washington....thats already 8 of their 11 wins!

of their 3 wins against teams with winning records, they beat 9-7 Dallas, 9-6-1 Philadelphia, and 11-5 Miami....

It seems to me that their most impressive win was against Miami, remember that the Dolphins we're missing both their nose tackles in that game and came out totally flat in that game...Also, I think the media has a tendency to hype Baltimore up because of all the "names" on their team and they definitely misled people when they reported that Baltimore dominated that game...I saw that game and it was close all the way thru, check the stats...

Also look at their losses, they lost twice to Pittsburgh, lost to Tennessee, lost to NY Giants, lost to Indianapolis.... they are 0-5 against teams with a seed in these playoffs...so I dont see why their coach is blowing smoke about them going to the Super Bowl!

My point is, this game is winnable for the Dolphins and no one should believe the hype about Baltimore, especially the Dolphins, they definitely shouldn't be scared of this team! Should be a hard fought game!
 
Here's the funny part about strength of schedule: It's based solely on records! So it's like saying that records are the sole indicator of a team's "strength" and then turning around and saying that they are not! The fact of the matter is that we are a very good team and can beat anyone in the league. Then again, every team in the playoffs is good. We'll just have to see what happens. But I'm very confident in the team we have.

Go Dolphins!
 
Of course I've heard it before, and now we hear it again this morning--Miami is "only 1-2" against the current crop of playoff teams. Miami "only beat two teams with winning records". But this is all based on where the teams finished and takes nothing circumstantial into account.

I'm not going to lie--we didn't have a gargantuan schedule. Then again, who in the AFC East did? Strength of schedule only determines two of your opponents now. But it wasn't as 'easy' as some made it seem anyway. Let's take a closer look at our victories...

1. New England Patriots, 11-5: We beat them before they really hit their stride, sure, but they had played well, if not dominant in prior weeks, and it was at Gillette stadium, a place where we typically get torn up.

2. San Diego Chargers, 8-8: They had a .500 record at the time, but that was partially due to Ed Hoculi's blunder. They were on a two game winning streak, and had just hung 48 points on the Jets two weeks earlier. No, they still hadn't regained their form, but they looked like they might be close to regaining some swagger.

3. Buffalo Bills, 7-9: Buffalo was 5-1 at the time of the first meeting! While they had played a softer schedule and suffered an embarassing loss to Arizona, the Cards did go 3-1 against the AFC East. Besides, you beat the opponents you play, and Buffalo was coming off of a key win versus San Diego. Miami's victory actually helped begin their downward spiral.

4. Denver Broncos, 8-8: They were coming off of a two game losing streak, but they were still 4-3 at the time, and they aren't exactly easy to beat at Invesco. And Denver's knock was their defense, but Miami won by flustering the Broncos' offense.

5. Seattle Seahawks, 4-12: Not going to argue here, they were definitely bad.

6. Oakland Raiders, 5-11: See above.

7. St. Louis Rams, 2-14: Not a good team, but it was with Steven Jackson, who when he was in the lineup, made them look much better.

8. Buffalo Bills, 7-9: This Bills team was backsliding and didn't have their starting quarterback, but they still had a .500 record at the time. Buffalo wouldn't have had a losing record if Miami hadn't beaten them twice.

9. San Francisco 49ers, 7-9: This is not the same 49ers team that went on a six game losing streak. This was a physical, confident team who had just beaten two other AFC East foes, and would go on to win 5 of their last 7. May have had a losing record, but Miami played them while they were hot.

10. Kansas City Chiefs, 2-14: No comment, but Miami had lost in its last 3 meetings in Arrowhead dating back to 1981.

11. New York Jets, 9-7: Say what you will about Favre, this was a team with a winning record that was once playoff bound, and Pennington was able to fool the defense several times. A few more plays executed on offense (Wildcat flicker, botched punt snap),and this one might have been uglier.

So all in all....we didn't play Goliaths, but doesn't this paint a better picture?

Nothing wrong with positive thinking, but that was a sad schedule. Not the Dolphins fault, but sad nonetheless. On the brigh side, we have to win close games, tough games, games we shouldn't, we have to go on long streaks, we have to make the playoffs and win the division and we've done all that in just one season under sparano, not 3 seasons under someone else. I think this team has learned a lot in a short amount of time. Now lets keep it rolling!!!
 
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Take the rose-colored glasses off homers...it was an easy schedule. It doesn't take away from what we accomplished, as most likely we would still win if our division had played...lets say the NFC South; instead of the West. Then we would have probably ended up with a 9-7 record, but may have still won the division because everyone else in our division would have lost about the same number as us. But make no mistake...11 wins is definitely due to a soft schedule IMO.

Look at Buffalo's start. They started the season with all softies...we ended the season with ours. So, they looked good early...but you all know at the end of the season you were all looking at Seattle, Oakland, KC, St. Louis and SF and licking your lips...

Everyone thinks its a joke that SD is backing in with an 8-8 schedule...but they had to play the NFC South...if we had to do the same thing, we might be 8-8 also...
 
Easy schedule or not, keep in mind that all those teams we played against have 11 more losses because we beat them.

Buffalo is 9-7, New England 12-4, San Diego 9-7, San Francisco 8-8 if we don't beat them. Get my point?
 
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