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The myth of a "difficult schedule"

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raving

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The league publishes a strength of schedule, but it is difficult to put stock into this rating system.

What really makes a schedule more or less difficult? I would argue that it is more desirable to play a team after they have won then after they have lost.

Injuries are a huge factor. Sometimes weather factors into the equation.

Home field vs away. How far a team has to travel.

Match-ups are probably one of the most telling factors. We have never beaten Houston. We have struggled mightily against the Ravens - accept the 1 in 1 and 15.

Every game against any NFL opponent is VERY tough and any victory is to be appreciated and savored. That's what makes the NFL unlike any other professional sports league.
 
Strength of schedule can all go to hell with one hit. I put no stock in it. The AFC East plays largely the same schedule, as do most conferences. "Tough Schedule" is complete bull hockey.
 
What will most likely happen is we get to the 2nd round of the playoffs (hopefully all the way and win sb) and then people are going to say we had the easiest schedule. People just don't like saying dolphins are doing better. PATS act like Tom can not get hurt again and to bills, TO cant get an injury, but that goes the same goes for us either Chad P, Porter, JT, or Williams can get injured. Knock on wood. pls do not let that happen to any of our players... well Chad P. is probably the less worst of them all cause of Chad H.
 
I would HATE to play a team that had a 10 game turnaround, in its first year together, and just got better......That would raise my eyebrows......
 
Well, yes and no.

The SOS is a myth, somewhat, if you are trying to project it forward. To a certain extent this is not possible: no one can fully predict injuries and other variables.

However, SOS is not a myth if looking at it in terms of yearly actuality. For instance, no one could deny last year as the regular season wound down that the Steelers had perhaps the most difficult schedule in the NFL -- and yet excelled despite it all. To say that they were battle tested come SB time was an understatement. SOS was no myth there. Neither were the hardened results: a very, very tough team.

They played all the big boys, sometimes twice, and owned them. Ask Baltimore who beat them up. Phins? Nah. They treated the Phins like school kids. Then they played the Steelers. War. Battle. With Baltimore getting punked.

Or how about the Steelers playing the Pats AFTER the Pats got rolling big time behind Cassell. By the second half, the Pats wanted off the field. Welker was knocked out of the game. And all WRs had gator arms. No one wanted a piece of the Steelers.

Which is a credit to how well Arizona did against them in the SB. Arizona manned up and almost won that thing.

So I don't think SOS is a myth -- in yearly analysis. But in pre-season projection: yeah. Yes it is. It's a bit like reading tea leaves. and not only preseason but also what part of the season you played that team. For instance, the Pats after Brady went down were floundering around for a few games before Cassell and Co. started being comfortable. Likewise the Giants: after Plax shot their season in the foot they weren't the same team. No one can deny!

So, bottom line: SoS myth is yes and no. Right now, it's a myth. So no one can take it for granted as a necessary strike against this season's success. If they do, they're just rolling the dice hoping to be correct, imo.

LD
 
Regardless of this schedule being the hardest or not as hard as people thought. It will certainly be a test to prove what we got and to prove people wrong.
 
The key is to win your home games. Beat the teams you are supposed to on the road. But if you start losing home games, then you are destined to be mediocre.
 
I think the Patriots have a tougher schedule than Miami. The schedules are similar except that Miami hosts Pitt last game of season (probably meaningless to 1 or both teams) and the Patsies host the Ravens on Oct 4th. Miami also plays the Chargers and NE plays Denver (probably the easier of the two) BUT New England has to play the Dolphins twice.
 
LDaniel7 said:
Well, yes and no.

The SOS is a myth, somewhat, if you are trying to project it forward. To a certain extent this is not possible: no one can fully predict injuries and other variables.

However, SOS is not a myth if looking at it in terms of yearly actuality. For instance, no one could deny last year as the regular season wound down that the Steelers had perhaps the most difficult schedule in the NFL -- and yet excelled despite it all. To say that they were battle tested come SB time was an understatement. SOS was no myth there. Neither were the hardened results: a very, very tough team.

They played all the big boys, sometimes twice, and owned them. Ask Baltimore who beat them up. Phins? Nah. They treated the Phins like school kids. Then they played the Steelers. War. Battle. With Baltimore getting punked.

Or how about the Steelers playing the Pats AFTER the Pats got rolling big time behind Cassell. By the second half, the Pats wanted off the field. Welker was knocked out of the game. And all WRs had gator arms. No one wanted a piece of the Steelers.

Which is a credit to how well Arizona did against them in the SB. Arizona manned up and almost won that thing.

So I don't think SOS is a myth -- in yearly analysis. But in pre-season projection: yeah. Yes it is. It's a bit like reading tea leaves. and not only preseason but also what part of the season you played that team. For instance, the Pats after Brady went down were floundering around for a few games before Cassell and Co. started being comfortable. Likewise the Giants: after Plax shot their season in the foot they weren't the same team. No one can deny!

So, bottom line: SoS myth is yes and no. Right now, it's a myth. So no one can take it for granted as a necessary strike against this season's success. If they do, they're just rolling the dice hoping to be correct, imo.

LD
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Very good post sir.
 
The big problem looking at a schedule this far in advance is we have no clue how good anybody will be overall when the season starts. An easy schedule in april can be tough in sept.
 
zackattack54 said:
I think the Patriots have a tougher schedule than Miami. The schedules are similar except that Miami hosts Pitt last game of season (probably meaningless to 1 or both teams) and the Patsies host the Ravens on Oct 4th. Miami also plays the Chargers and NE plays Denver (probably the easier of the two) BUT New England has to play the Dolphins twice.
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Like you said I like the pitt match up better that the pats and ravens, but the SD game is the toughest game on our schedule IMO. We play the colts in the first monday night game in years in Miami, then turn around on an already short week and have to give up a 2nd day traveling to the west coast! WOW, just wow, that couldn't be more brutal. If we lose the ATL game the Colts game then becomes a must win.
If both us and SD are 1-1 after the first two weeks we will be a 6-7 pts dog in that game. The only bright side of the SD game is they play the ravens in week two, although it is at home at least we know they will be sore when they play us.
 
raving said:
The league publishes a strength of schedule, but it is difficult to put stock into this rating system.

What really makes a schedule more or less difficult? I would argue that it is more desirable to play a team after they have won then after they have lost.

Injuries are a huge factor. Sometimes weather factors into the equation.

Home field vs away. How far a team has to travel.

Match-ups are probably one of the most telling factors. We have never beaten Houston. We have struggled mightily against the Ravens - accept the 1 in 1 and 15.

Every game against any NFL opponent is VERY tough and any victory is to be appreciated and savored. That's what makes the NFL unlike any other professional sports league.
Click to expand...

I'm not sure I get what you are saying. Are you saying that if last year we had the schedule we have this year we would have still went 11-5?? If that is what your saying I think your.....well to put it nicely, WRONG!!
Schedules are sometimes hard and sometimes they are easier, now having said that it is possible that some of the stars I.E. Brady from last year gets hurt and aren't as good, but for the most part good teams will be good and bad teams won't. There will always be exception to the rule, like we were last year.

Very few things in this world are 100% but you can't say we are exactly 50% to win every game this year. If we were then why do owners spend millions upon hundreds of millions to bring in better players and coaches if average players could win 50% of the time??

Fact: some teams are better than others.

Fact: better teams usually win more than bad teams.

Fact: injuries can change what team is better.

Therefore to say the SOS is a myth is not true. Although SOS doesn't mean you can't win the SB if you are good enough (IE. last year Pitt)nor does it mean if you are bad and have an easy SOS that you are gonna win a lot. It's not something that can't be overcame but it definitely has an bearing on the number of wins you can expect.
 
Easy schedule ?

The Jets lost to Oakland, Seattle, San Francisco and Denver last year.

The Browns destroyed the Giants.. I'm pretty sure every Giants fan in existence pegged that game against the Browns as an automatic win.. I'm positive that Giants fans all over had a big "W" next to Cleveland on their little magnet schedules on their refrigerators....

What happened there ??

Almost every year Dolphins fans peg a "W" against Houston.. And the Texans just own us.

The Cowboys came into last season with 13 pro bowlers.. And they got smacked all around the field in St Louis losing to the Rams by 20 points.... ( if the Cowboys beat that crappy team on the road, the cowboys are in the playoffs last year)

What the Dolphins did in winning 4 of their last 5 games on the road (the only home game was against San Fran at the end of the season), was nothing short of fantastic football.

I don't care who you are or who you play, to go on the road and play the way the dolphins did week after week, and win every time, is extremely hard to do in the NFL.. That is a sign of a very well-coached, hungry, and disciplined football team.
 
We have the most difficult schedule based on our foes won/lost records from last year. There are incalculable contingencies for the projection, which i thought everyone understood.... I guess i'm lost, what are we talking about again?
 
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