Kamikaze
Cunning Linguist
Yeah, I said it. What I'm writing will make a few assumptions, such as the Dolphins going 10-6 this season. However, that's what we honestly need to do to get into the playoffs at all. So I'll make my bold prediction right here. The New York Jets will be the team that decides the playoff fate of a 10-6 Miami Dolphins team.
Now, at 3-6 it seems totally ridiculous to even be discussing it, but the Fins still have an outside shot at the playoffs. They are better positioned this season to sneak in, but it's still gonna take the Fins needing to run the table, along with some help from some other teams.
First, let's discuss the AFC East. The Patriots are indeed the team to beat, as they carry a 6-3 record and a 4-1 division. record. What does this mean? The Dolphins lose the tiebreaker against the Pats already. The Fins are 0-3 in the division. The Pats would have to finish with a 9-7 record, and I just don't see that kind of collapse happening to them, even as depleted of offensive talent as they are now. Even supposing a Pats collapse, the Jets still stand in the way. However, we CAN get away with matching their record, because at best both teams will have a 3-3 division record. That moves things to conference record, which the Jets have a small advantage in, but assuming even that's tied it goes onto common opponents, and it just gets to complicated to talk about this far from the end of the season. The Bills are not in the equation, because even though they have the same 3-6 record as Miami, the Fins still have yet to play them, and by virtue of needing to run the table to even have a hope of the playoffs, will automatically finish with a better record.
What does all that mean in short? Winning the AFC East is just short of impossible.
Let's move to the wildcard situation, a more realistic possibility. There are two spots available, so let's look at records.
San Diego (7-2)
Kansas City (5-4)
Jacksonville (5-4)
NY Jets (5-4)
Cincinnati (4-5)
Buffalo (3-6)
Houston (3-6)
Cleveland (3-6)
Pittsburgh (3-6)
Miami (3-6)
San Diego is a virtual lock for that 1st wild card spot at this point. Let's assume they get it (and probably will anyway). With only one spot left open, things look grim indeed for the Dolphins. First, let's assume that teams like Cleveland, Buffalo, and Houston will fall off the radar, as they are all mediocre teams and will likely do so anyway. First, let's go to those critical tiebreakers. Assuming the Dolphins run the table to finish at 10-6, they will have some key tiebreakers going for them. By beating Kansas City and Jacksonville, they automatically win any tiebreakers against them. The Jets situation will be the same as above, so if the Jets lose two more games, they had better be to AFC teams, and better yet AFC East teams. Cincinnati would almost certainly have a tiebreaker on Miami, since they have a much superior conference record. Pittsburgh beat Miami in Week 1, so if Pittsburgh goes off and runs the table the same as Miami, the Steelers get in over Miami.
Let's try to break it all down. Assuming Miami finishes 10-6 the following needs to happen. Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Houston, and Buffalo all need to lose just once. Easy enough. Cincy needs to lose just two more games. Again, easy enough. This leaves us with the Jets, Jags, and Chiefs on the surface all needing to lose 3 games each, but Miami is in favorable position tie-breaker wise with these teams anyway. If the Jags and Chiefs only manage 5 more wins this season, guess what? Miami has the tiebreaker against both. This leaves only the pesky Jets. And the Jets may end up proving to be the team that prevents the Dolphins from getting in. Because if the Jets can beat the Bills again (very likely), they will automatically have a tiebreaker against Miami due to better division record. The Jets pretty much have to go 4-3 the rest of the way. And thus, the Jets are the big X-factor in the playoff hunt.
Oh, the Jets also have one other role to play. They could still very well win the AFC East (but must have a better record than the Pats). If they did so at say, 11-5, that means the Pats would have to finish at 10-6. Oh look, the Fins are assumed to be 10-6 as well. Oh, also look, the Patriots already have a better division record.
Conclusion: Assuming the Dolphins can run the table, the New York Jets will almost assuredly determine their playoff fate. Of course, any number of other teams can still ruin it all for us, including ourselves by losing another game, but the Jets by all accounts seem to be in prime position to be the one team to deny us the playoffs.
Oh yeah, flame away!
Now, at 3-6 it seems totally ridiculous to even be discussing it, but the Fins still have an outside shot at the playoffs. They are better positioned this season to sneak in, but it's still gonna take the Fins needing to run the table, along with some help from some other teams.
First, let's discuss the AFC East. The Patriots are indeed the team to beat, as they carry a 6-3 record and a 4-1 division. record. What does this mean? The Dolphins lose the tiebreaker against the Pats already. The Fins are 0-3 in the division. The Pats would have to finish with a 9-7 record, and I just don't see that kind of collapse happening to them, even as depleted of offensive talent as they are now. Even supposing a Pats collapse, the Jets still stand in the way. However, we CAN get away with matching their record, because at best both teams will have a 3-3 division record. That moves things to conference record, which the Jets have a small advantage in, but assuming even that's tied it goes onto common opponents, and it just gets to complicated to talk about this far from the end of the season. The Bills are not in the equation, because even though they have the same 3-6 record as Miami, the Fins still have yet to play them, and by virtue of needing to run the table to even have a hope of the playoffs, will automatically finish with a better record.
What does all that mean in short? Winning the AFC East is just short of impossible.
Let's move to the wildcard situation, a more realistic possibility. There are two spots available, so let's look at records.
San Diego (7-2)
Kansas City (5-4)
Jacksonville (5-4)
NY Jets (5-4)
Cincinnati (4-5)
Buffalo (3-6)
Houston (3-6)
Cleveland (3-6)
Pittsburgh (3-6)
Miami (3-6)
San Diego is a virtual lock for that 1st wild card spot at this point. Let's assume they get it (and probably will anyway). With only one spot left open, things look grim indeed for the Dolphins. First, let's assume that teams like Cleveland, Buffalo, and Houston will fall off the radar, as they are all mediocre teams and will likely do so anyway. First, let's go to those critical tiebreakers. Assuming the Dolphins run the table to finish at 10-6, they will have some key tiebreakers going for them. By beating Kansas City and Jacksonville, they automatically win any tiebreakers against them. The Jets situation will be the same as above, so if the Jets lose two more games, they had better be to AFC teams, and better yet AFC East teams. Cincinnati would almost certainly have a tiebreaker on Miami, since they have a much superior conference record. Pittsburgh beat Miami in Week 1, so if Pittsburgh goes off and runs the table the same as Miami, the Steelers get in over Miami.
Let's try to break it all down. Assuming Miami finishes 10-6 the following needs to happen. Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Houston, and Buffalo all need to lose just once. Easy enough. Cincy needs to lose just two more games. Again, easy enough. This leaves us with the Jets, Jags, and Chiefs on the surface all needing to lose 3 games each, but Miami is in favorable position tie-breaker wise with these teams anyway. If the Jags and Chiefs only manage 5 more wins this season, guess what? Miami has the tiebreaker against both. This leaves only the pesky Jets. And the Jets may end up proving to be the team that prevents the Dolphins from getting in. Because if the Jets can beat the Bills again (very likely), they will automatically have a tiebreaker against Miami due to better division record. The Jets pretty much have to go 4-3 the rest of the way. And thus, the Jets are the big X-factor in the playoff hunt.
Oh, the Jets also have one other role to play. They could still very well win the AFC East (but must have a better record than the Pats). If they did so at say, 11-5, that means the Pats would have to finish at 10-6. Oh look, the Fins are assumed to be 10-6 as well. Oh, also look, the Patriots already have a better division record.
Conclusion: Assuming the Dolphins can run the table, the New York Jets will almost assuredly determine their playoff fate. Of course, any number of other teams can still ruin it all for us, including ourselves by losing another game, but the Jets by all accounts seem to be in prime position to be the one team to deny us the playoffs.
Oh yeah, flame away!
