The one stat to keep your eyes on tonight. | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

The one stat to keep your eyes on tonight.

deadlydolphinz

deadlydolphinz

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Accuscore, which is a game engine simulator (very accurate one to boot) had a very interesting stat to keep track of for tonight's game.

That stat seems pretty achievable too: 120 yards rushing.

When Miami rushed for more than 120 yards in the simulation, they won 72% of the time. But when Miami rushed for under 120 yards rushing, they lost 70 (something) % of the time.

The Jets on the other hand, may have the best pass defense in the NFL. But their run defense has been no better than average at best. They have allowed just over 100 yards rushing per game and over 4 yards per rush.

If Miami wins this game, which I think they can, they have to win it within the trenches.

Tonight is going to be an old style type football game. A game full of physical play and defensive battle. I like the Dolphins chances of making Sanchez beat us, than the chances of the Jets making Henne beat them. The Phins are the 2nd best run stopping team in the NFL and the #1 rushing team in the NFL. Gonna be hard to blitz the QB when we run the ball 45 times tonight!!!

Are you ready for some football?
 
deadlydolphinz said:
When Miami rushed for more than 120 yards in the simulation, they won 72% of the time. But when Miami rushed for under 120 yards rushing, they lost 70 (something) % of the time.
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That's because when a team is leading, they run the ball more to burn the clock. And when a team is trailing, they pass the ball more to try and catch up.
 
normaldude said:
That's because when a team is leading, they run the ball more to burn the clock. And when a team is trailing, they pass the ball more to try and catch up.
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No doubt.

But it has more to do with a Dolphins unsuccessful rushing attack will play right into our weakness and our opposers strength.

To be frank, if Henne has to do too much tonight, we could be looking at a very long night.
 
deadlydolphinz said:
No doubt.

But it has more to do with a Dolphins unsuccessful rushing attack will play right into our weakness and our opposers strength.

To be frank, if Henne has to do too much tonight, we could be looking at a very long night.
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Your right. But in my opinion if Mark Sanchez is asked to win the game. The Jets could be looking at a very long night.

And Congrats on your first thanx.
 
Tonight is a terrible spot for the Jets.. The Dolphins match up very well against that team (check my previous posts for the breakdowns)..

The Dolphins are flying high with confidence after a blowout win. The jets, especially their QB, are doubting themselves after losing by two TD's last week.

Miami has experience in Primetime at home with the Colts game a few weeks ago.. The Colts would be ranked top 5 in run defense as they have been excellent against the run, except for the Miami game when they gave up 240 rushing yards.

The Colts are a FAR FAR more complete and refined team than the Jets are.. It's not even close. The Colts are the class of the AFC. They are easily the best team in the conference. And Miami went toe to toe with them and took them down to the wire.

There is no way Miami will lose two Monday night home games at the beginning of the season.. Especially when the 2nd team is very inferior to the first team.

The Dolphins will not lose to that team at this spot at this time...The Dolphins will show the millions upon millions of people watching tonight what a pretender the Jets are.
 
WISfinfan13 said:
Your right. But in my opinion if Mark Sanchez is asked to win the game. The Jets could be looking at a very long night.
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It depends. Mark Sanchez and TE Dustin Keller are clicking pretty well this year. And we all know that Miami has trouble covering tight ends.
 
WISfinfan13 said:
Your right. But in my opinion if Mark Sanchez is asked to win the game. The Jets could be looking at a very long night.

And Congrats on your first thanx.
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:thanks:


I totally agree with that.

Sanchez is no better than Edwards, except Edwards has better weapons. There is no reason to think that Sanchez could not have that kind of night if he is forced to win this game for the Jets.

Wake, Porter, Taylor, Merling and Langford will create alot of pressure if the Jets are forced into alot of passing downs.
 
normaldude said:
It depends. Mark Sanchez and TE Dustin Keller are clicking pretty well this year. And we all know that Miami has trouble covering tight ends.
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I'll be honest.

My biggest worry tonight is Leon Washington. I'm getting sick of playing that dude, I was praying the Jets where gonna trade him when he held out in the off-season.

With that said, we have already shut down a very similar RB in Darren Sproles. But still, Leon Washington seems to always have our number.
 
normaldude said:
Agreed. And I think we should try to lean on the wildcat more. The 2009 Wildcat is averaging 7 yds/carry.
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I would love to see me some Tyler Thigpen ran WC.

We all know how good he can operate the spread offense in the NFL (Fins @ Chiefs last season), and I really feel like something bad is gonna happen when White comes out on the field.

Thigpen is a guy who can make all the NFL throws and has done it and he can run extremely well to boot.
 
Jets are going to absolutely sell out to stop the run. they would be dumb not too. henne will have to make a few plays in order for them to back off. if he cant make any medium to long pass plays then we're in trouble.
 
nerfball said:
Jets are going to absolutely sell out to stop the run. they would be dumb not too. henne will have to make a few plays in order for them to back off. if he cant make any medium to long pass plays then we're in trouble.
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I expect a play-action bomb to Ginn to open the game.

I also expect us to unveil a lot of new WC wrinkles tonight like we did last season against New England.
 
This one is gonna be a battle of the ages!
 
Play action can certainly tame the sell out to the run philosophy the Jets will utilize. Its about Henne selling it well. Both qbs need to be asked by their own coordinatory to do the minimum allowed to win. But even still eventually Ginn is going to have to get free on a deep route to stretch the field.
 
This is the stat that I most care about...

2-3

GO DOLPHINS!!
 
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