Must-win #1: Colts over Chargers
Of the eight remaining games for Pittsburgh, Kansas City and San Diego, at this point only two are already absolutely, positively critical: Indianapolis must beat San Diego this week, and Cleveland must beat Pittsburgh next week.
The Colts-Chargers game surprised me. I originally calculated that SD and KC would both need to win (plus Jacksonville) for us to be eliminated from the wildcard, but follow this carefully:
First, assume San Diego wins Sunday. We know that they MUST lose their following two for Miami to have any chance. So OK, then they lose to the Chiefs – but that means KC will finish #2 in their division unless the Chargers beat Denver in the final week. From Miami’s perspective, that can’t happen: that makes the Chargers 10-6. But we can’t afford KC at #2 in the division either – they’ll win the tiebreak whether it’s with us alone, or with Pittsburgh.
So: If San Diego wins Sunday, they can neither win nor lose the following week without eliminating Miami in the process, either way. (Maybe if they tie ...? Naah.) Fortunately, San Diego faces a Colts team that’s on a bit of a roll lately.
It would also be helpful if San Diego, after losing, went on to beat Kansas City – but as we’ve seen, that isn’t absolutely necessary. If both lose this week, and KC beats SD next week, we could still be OK if SD beats Denver and KC loses to Cincinnati in the final week. (Remember, quite some time ago, I said we might NEED the Chargers to win one, rather than finishing 8-8? Well, here we are. That was easy, wasn’t it?)