The stats don’t lie, do they? | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

The stats don’t lie, do they?

royalshank

royalshank

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So call me old school but I still look at the summary team stats vs opponents each week to watch the trends. All year we were on the losing side of most of these including :

- 3rd down conversion rate
- Rushing yards
- Turnovers
- First downs by penalty
- Total penalties
- Total plays run
- Sacks
- FG %
- TOP

Miami Dolphins

Miami Dolphins: Stats
www.miamidolphins.com www.miamidolphins.com

The two places we consistently outperformed our opponents were:

- Passing yards and more importantly,
- YPA

Now, forget for a moment HOW we got to .500 and accept for a second that what you’re seeing here has pretty much been consistent all year. It screams .500 ball club doesn’t it?

I believe our YPA in the passing game kinda offset the losing the turnover battle (the two biggest correlations to winning) and we landed where the math said we should. Perhaps 8-3 wasn’t a “real” 8-3 ? We were never + in the turnover department, nor TOP etc.

Is it possible that - as painful as it is week in and out - we are simply seeing the probability play out? Again, these stats are now off of 16 games, didn’t change much during the season and don’t shout “playoff team” to me - you guys? Thoughts?
 
Miami151 said:
The ”canary in the cave” stat for me was having a negative or barely positive point differential and still ranked top 5 in the NFL. Wasn’t sustainable.
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That was an oddity all year for sure. Brother Awsi has studied this stat IIR and has posted extensively about it. Hope I don’t butcher it, but the long and short is something like, “teams that make the postseason with a negative point differential get bounced immediately all the time every time” - something to that effect. I know it doesn’t make any sense but in games like Cleveland and Houston I was rooting for us to hold the big leads we had just so we could get into + territory on this statistic
 
brumdog44 said:
Yeah, but you would think a point differential if 0 would indicate a .500 team going forward, not an 0-5 one.
Click to expand...
Having trouble following - you mean the last 5 games being around 0 we should be .500 ish?
 
Defense and special teams were both bottom 5 and the reason for the outcome. If you determine anything other than that, either you don’t understand the game or you didn’t watch.
 
royalshank said:
So call me old school but I still look at the summary team stats vs opponents each week to watch the trends. All year we were on the losing side of most of these including :

- 3rd down conversion rate
- Rushing yards
- Turnovers
- First downs by penalty
- Total penalties
- Total plays run
- Sacks
- FG %
- TOP

Miami Dolphins

Miami Dolphins: Stats
www.miamidolphins.com www.miamidolphins.com

The two places we consistently outperformed our opponents were:

- Passing yards and more importantly,
- YPA

Now, forget for a moment HOW we got to .500 and accept for a second that what you’re seeing here has pretty much been consistent all year. It screams .500 ball club doesn’t it?

I believe our YPA in the passing game kinda offset the losing the turnover battle (the two biggest correlations to winning) and we landed where the math said we should. Perhaps 8-3 wasn’t a “real” 8-3 ? We were never + in the turnover department, nor TOP etc.

Is it possible that - as painful as it is week in and out - we are simply seeing the probability play out? Again, these stats are now off of 16 games, didn’t change much during the season and don’t shout “playoff team” to me - you guys? Thoughts?
Click to expand...
All of it screams that the team is poorly coached, poorly prepared, and poorly managed.

The YPA is nothing more than the fact that Hill and Waddle are as talented, explosive, and fast as any WRs in the league. QB will have nice YPA numbers when it is nothing for one of his receivers to house a simple drag route or a slant for 75+ yards.

Hill and Waddle are the dolphins offense. Holland, Phillips, and Wilkins are special players on defense. That is basically our team.

Coaching is a joke. QB play is very blah. The numbers can look good, but they are heavily skewed by the fact that Hill and Waddle are incredible players. If you don't believe that then take a look at his numbers from the previous two seasons. We still struggle to score points on offense with Tua aside from mostly Hill and Waddle making big plays. It is really the only difference between the offense the past two seasons and this season.

We were told the coach was a "run game guru" because of his fancy title in San Fran. But, he doesn't even like to run the ball.

There are tons of rushing yards and check down yards available because Hill and Waddle force the defense to play so deep, but we never take advantage of this fact because Tua sucks and can't go through progressions and the nerd refuses to call running plays consistently.

Get any kind of decent QB in here, a HC who is a proven winner with experience, and a guy who can run the defense(this could be the HC) and this team is an 11+ game winner and contender next season.
 
MARINO1384 said:
Defense and special teams were both bottom 5 and the reason for the outcome. If you determine anything other than that, either you don’t understand the game or you didn’t watch.
Click to expand...
Defense has been mostly solid all year and has given us the opportunity to win plenty of games.

Check the number of plays we run offensively. When we don't run plays and don't possess the football, the defense is going to give up stats that place them in the "bottom 5."

Start running the ****ing ball and sustaining drives and you'll find the numbers to be much different with the same exact players. Because I watch every game and I see a defense that gets stops, forces FG tries when the other team is given the ball already in scoring range, and more often than not gives the offense plenty of chances to win games.

When our offense is Hill or Waddle makes a huge play and we score points off that or we go 5 plays or less and punt, it lends itself to giving up stats to opposing offenses.
 
If I had to pick one thing holding this team back it's the 3rd down conversion rate. Specifically, the lack of a run game in crucial situations.

That affects TOP and ultimately points scored. Also, puts the defense under a lot of pressure.

Penalties are troublesome as well. I pointed out in another post that the biggest play for Buffalo a few weeks back was the late PI on Kohou. I'm not trying to pick on Kohou who has played pretty well overall. But that's just lack of football awareness.

It's easier to stomach when players make great plays. Force Josh Allen to make the perfect throw, rather than giving it away. Too many of these plays are happening for Miami and costing the team games.
 
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Could not get to the QB, could not pick off passes, could not strip the ball from runners. It was a bad year defensively.
We were inconsistent driving down the field, failed passing on third and short killed us in many games. Inability to trust the kicker too was an issue. It all led to some risky decisions on late downs. Not to mention playcalls and clock issues.
Then we trailed in games at the half. Had to make risky moves to catch up. In some games defense adjusted at the half and clamped down the opponent in second half.
It just was not complementary football all year, all three phases. There were flashes but in the end it never came together.
 
Orange Fin Bad said:
All of it screams that the team is poorly coached, poorly prepared, and poorly managed.

The YPA is nothing more than the fact that Hill and Waddle are as talented, explosive, and fast as any WRs in the league. QB will have nice YPA numbers when it is nothing for one of his receivers to house a simple drag route or a slant for 75+ yards.

Hill and Waddle are the dolphins offense. Holland, Phillips, and Wilkins are special players on defense. That is basically our team.

Coaching is a joke. QB play is very blah. The numbers can look good, but they are heavily skewed by the fact that Hill and Waddle are incredible players. If you don't believe that then take a look at his numbers from the previous two seasons. We still struggle to score points on offense with Tua aside from mostly Hill and Waddle making big plays. It is really the only difference between the offense the past two seasons and this season.

We were told the coach was a "run game guru" because of his fancy title in San Fran. But, he doesn't even like to run the ball.

There are tons of rushing yards and check down yards available because Hill and Waddle force the defense to play so deep, but we never take advantage of this fact because Tua sucks and can't go through progressions and the nerd refuses to call running plays consistently.

Get any kind of decent QB in here, a HC who is a proven winner with experience, and a guy who can run the defense(this could be the HC) and this team is an 11+ game winner and contender next season.
Click to expand...
Excellent post. We'll said.
 
Orange Fin Bad said:
Defense has been mostly solid all year and has given us the opportunity to win plenty of games.

Check the number of plays we run offensively. When we don't run plays and don't possess the football, the defense is going to give up stats that place them in the "bottom 5."

Start running the ****ing ball and sustaining drives and you'll find the numbers to be much different with the same exact players. Because I watch every game and I see a defense that gets stops, forces FG tries when the other team is given the ball already in scoring range, and more often than not gives the offense plenty of chances to win games.

When our offense is Hill or Waddle makes a huge play and we score points off that or we go 5 plays or less and punt, it lends itself to giving up stats to opposing offenses.
Click to expand...
Solid is not giving up the 2nd most points in the AFC. More like solid crap defense.
 
Orange Fin Bad said:
All of it screams that the team is poorly coached, poorly prepared, and poorly managed.

The YPA is nothing more than the fact that Hill and Waddle are as talented, explosive, and fast as any WRs in the league. QB will have nice YPA numbers when it is nothing for one of his receivers to house a simple drag route or a slant for 75+ yards.

Hill and Waddle are the dolphins offense. Holland, Phillips, and Wilkins are special players on defense. That is basically our team.

Coaching is a joke. QB play is very blah. The numbers can look good, but they are heavily skewed by the fact that Hill and Waddle are incredible players. If you don't believe that then take a look at his numbers from the previous two seasons. We still struggle to score points on offense with Tua aside from mostly Hill and Waddle making big plays. It is really the only difference between the offense the past two seasons and this season.

We were told the coach was a "run game guru" because of his fancy title in San Fran. But, he doesn't even like to run the ball.

There are tons of rushing yards and check down yards available because Hill and Waddle force the defense to play so deep, but we never take advantage of this fact because Tua sucks and can't go through progressions and the nerd refuses to call running plays consistently.

Get any kind of decent QB in here, a HC who is a proven winner with experience, and a guy who can run the defense(this could be the HC) and this team is an 11+ game winner and contender next season.
Click to expand...
Imagine thinking Tua isn't a solid qb .. lol
 
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