The story of the first-round running back

[SCLSU Mud Dogs]

I thought this was compelling enough to put in the main forum.

I took a look at the top-10 rushers from 2014. One of the rushers (Marshawn Lynch) was drafted in the first round.

2014 rushers

RK	PLAYER	TEAM	ATT	YDS	YDS/A	LONG	20+	TD	YDS/G	FUM	1DN
1	DeMarco Murray, RB	DAL	392	1,845	4.7	51	15	13	115.3	3	85
2	Le'Veon Bell, RB	PIT	290	1,361	4.7	81	8	8	85.1	0	73
3	LeSean McCoy, RB	PHI	312	1,319	4.2	53	9	5	82.4	3	67
4	Marshawn Lynch, RB	SEA	280	1,306	4.7	79	7	13	81.6	1	65
5	Justin Forsett, RB	BAL	235	1,266	5.4	52	17	8	79.1	1	56
6	Arian Foster, RB	HOU	260	1,246	4.8	51	9	8	95.8	2	52
7	Eddie Lacy, RB	GB	246	1,139	4.6	44	8	9	71.2	3	58
8	Jeremy Hill, RB	CIN	222	1,124	5.1	85	8	9	70.3	4	61
9	Frank Gore, RB	SF	255	1,106	4.3	52	5	4	69.1	2	53
10	Lamar Miller, RB	MIA	216	1,099	5.1	97	9	8	68.7	2	57

There were four running backs drafted in the second round
-Bell, McCoy, Lacy and Hill.

Two in the third
-Murray and Gore

And the rest were drafted in the later rounds, or undrafted (Arian Foster)

Let's compare that to 2003

RK	PLAYER	TEAM	ATT	YDS	YDS/A	LONG	20+	TD	YDS/G	FUM	1DN
1	Jamal Lewis, RB	BAL	387	2,066	5.3	82	16	14	129.1	8	83
2	Ahman Green, RB	GB	355	1,883	5.3	98	15	15	117.7	7	96
3	LaDainian Tomlinson, RB	SD	313	1,645	5.3	73	12	13	102.8	2	81
4	Deuce McAllister, RB	NO	351	1,641	4.7	76	16	8	102.6	6	69
5	Clinton Portis, RB	DEN	290	1,591	5.5	65	13	14	122.4	3	76
6	Fred Taylor, RB	JAX	345	1,572	4.6	62	10	6	98.3	5	77
7	Stephen Davis, RB	CAR	318	1,444	4.5	40	11	8	103.1	3	69
8	Shaun Alexander, RB	SEA	326	1,435	4.4	55	9	14	89.7	4	79
9	Priest Holmes, RB	KC	320	1,420	4.4	31	6	27	88.8	1	88
10	Ricky Williams, RB	MIA	392	1,372	3.5	45	6	9	85.8	4	68

Of the 2003 running backs, six were drafted in the first round (Lewis, Tomlinson, McAllister, Taylor, Alexander and our own Ricky Williams)

Point being, it's a different landscape. Running backs once dominated the NFL, but that has changed to quarterbacks and receivers.

Those clamoring for Gordon or any of the stud running backs - it doesn't make sense. There are plenty of running backs that can be had on day 2 or 3 that will go on to have better careers than the top of the crop.

Don't just take my word for it.

2009 NFL draft first round selections

• #12 - Knowshon Moreno - pretty unspectacular, injury riddled career so far
• #27 - Donald Brown - decent back, but definitely not a top-10 running back in the league
• #31 - Chris "Beanie" Wells - not sure he's even in the league any more

2010 NFL draft

• #9 - CJ Spiller - injury riddled career so far. All the talent in the world but can't stay on the field
• #12 - Ryan Matthews - Same problem, injuries have kept him off the field
• #30 - Jahvid Best - not in the NFL any more

2011 NFL draft

• #28 - Mark Ingram - has yet to live up to expectations. Hasn't eclipsed 1,000 yards in a season yet

2012 NFL draft

• #3 - Trent Richardson - One of the few running backs to fail in the first round twice - once for Cleveland and once for the Colts when they traded a first-round pick for him. Currently a free agent after his experiment in Indy was a profound failure
• #31 - Doug Martin - had a great rookie year, but has played in only 17 of 32 games in the last two seasons
• #32 - David Wilson - neck injuries forced him out of football after not even two seasons

2013 NFL draft

• The earliest running back was taken with pick #37.

The long and the short of it is this: Miami is much better suited taking a player that will not only offer more, but most likely play a longer career than a running back.

 

[Travis34]

Great post.

What about 2008? Is that when Adrian Peterson and Marshawn come out??

 

[SCLSU Mud Dogs]

Great post.

What about 2008? Is that when Adrian Peterson and Marshawn come out??

That was in 2007. Almost a decade ago. Definitely becoming less of a trend, though in 08 there were five first round running backs selected. Jonathan Stewart, Darren Mcfadden, Rashard Mendenhall, Felix Jones and Chris Johnson

 

[gregorygrant83]

Good post but the numbers could be misleading. For example 5 of your top 10 backs were taken in the 1st or 2nd round. If only 10 backs total were taken in the top two rounds during that time that would give you a 50/50 chance. However if the 4 backs you have selected in rounds 3 thru 7 came from a pool of 50 running backs selected in those rounds during that time frame than success 3 out of 50 or a 12% chance of success. Sure you could get lucky and find a back later, but the odds are far less likely.

Or another way to look at it. Of the backs in the top 10

1st round = 1
2nd round = 4
3rd round = 2
4th round = 1
5th round = 0
6th round = 0
7th round = 1
udfa = 1

When you consider how many backs were taken in rounds 4, 5,6 and 7 during those years and the fact that only two are on your list it would suggest the odds of finding a back later are worse than finding one early.

Although, I do like trying to hit the lottery in the later rounds at all of the positions. Right now if I could only have one back in the 7th round or udfa to give a shot at making the Dolphins roster I would love to bring in Jahwan Edwards from Ball State. At 5-8 220 he's a little bowling ball and is going to a preseason darling for somebody. I also like Synjyn Days from Georgia Tech.

 

[retarmyfinfan]

Nice post. I didn't want a RB in the 1st, this puts an excellent perspective on why they don't get drafted in the 1st round anymore.

 

[fakespike]

Gordon or Gurley dropping to us in round 2? history says its less ridiculous than it seems.

 

[LordTua]

Damn, this is making me think twice about Gurley. He is a physical specimen, but maybe we should explore Coleman, Abdullah, The Duke or Ajayi ...

Which one of them is most likely to be there in the 4th for our pick?

 

[gregorygrant83]

Each of those backs should go before Miami picks in round 4. I think they go in order Coleman, Ajayi, Johnson and Abdullah

 

[Coach_Rob]

I don't want a rb in the first and the only one I would take in the 2nd is gurley and he will be long gone

 

[insomnia411]

Ordinarily I'm completely against taking a back in the first round under most circumstances, but I'm of the opinion that Gurley is the best college back I've seen play against the best competition since Peterson. I think Gurley is a once in a decade back, and if he didn't get hurt he wouldn't be making it out of the top 10.
With that being said, for us at 14 I'd take Devante Parker and a few other guys before Gurley, but if the draft fell the right way I'd be mighty tempted. I'm not nearly as impressed by Gordon.

 

[Kdawg954]

Gurley is definitely a very unique back and worthy of a first round pick . . . . but when you factor in the injury, I wouldn't pull the trigger.

Just too much success outside of round 1 to warrant the pick for us.

 

[WVDolphan]

Also note the discrepancy on those two charts of runs of 20+ yards. Last year only Forsett and Bell had double digit carries of over 20 yards. The chart from 2003 shows the top 7 yardage guys with double digit 20+ yard carries.

The running game is no longer the weapon it once was. Not only was it relied on more in the past, it featured more chunk plays. I would like to see for sure if that was just due to more attempts or if there was actually a higher percentage of long rushing plays.

Also note the difference in the total yardage that RBs put up in 2003 as opposed to last year. Fewer and fewer guys are given a role as a true workhorse these days. RB has become a specialized position. Teams often carry 3 or more players that bring different abilities to the position. Heck, the Eagles have 5 capable RBs on their roster right now.

I would offer the specialization of the relief pitcher in baseball as a comparison. Teams have specialty relievers in their pens now. Teams will carry a left hander who's purpose is nothing more than to face the oppositions big left handed bat in the latter innings. They will come in to face one or two batters only and they only way they will ever pitch to a right handed batter is if one is sandwiched in between two good left handed bats that a team wants to leave that lefty reliever in to face.

Starting pitchers do not even go 8 innings nearly as often as they used to, much less throw complete games. Even if a starter is throwing a great game, a team will almost certainly go to their closer in the 9th.

 

[Geordie]

Gurley is a difference maker, a lot of RB's are reliant on the OLine they play behind some (Murray) figures are inflated by the quality of that blocking. Gurley however when you saw him in games was just an unstoppable force for Georgia., it didn't matter who was blocking for him or who the opponents put up to stop him. If the injury checks out, whom ever picks him up in round 1 will get a hell of a running back, it'll not be us though I don't think, although I wouldn't be upset if it was.

 

[finfan54]

This is nothing but the big picture scenario.

of course RB can be had in later rounds. But if you cannot see the difference between a Gordon and some of the others in this draft, I dont know what to tell ya.

Gordon will be Ladanian Thomlinson and possibly greater. His movement through the LOS is second to none.

If you think Gordon is not worth the 14th pick, I would say you need to have your eyes examined. This crap is only to push for a WR, which is what all of you do around here. Its as if WR has no issues drafting high. Seriously, nice post, but its a take that I could put to any position. Lets start with QB.

 

[finfan54]

Also note the discrepancy on those two charts of runs of 20+ yards. Last year only Forsett and Bell had double digit carries of over 20 yards. The chart from 2003 shows the top 7 yardage guys with double digit 20+ yard carries.

The running game is no longer the weapon it once was. Not only was it relied on more in the past, it featured more chunk plays. I would like to see for sure if that was just due to more attempts or if there was actually a higher percentage of long rushing plays.

Also note the difference in the total yardage that RBs put up in 2003 as opposed to last year. Fewer and fewer guys are given a role as a true workhorse these days. RB has become a specialized position. Teams often carry 3 or more players that bring different abilities to the position. Heck, the Eagles have 5 capable RBs on their roster right now.

I would offer the specialization of the relief pitcher in baseball as a comparison. Teams have specialty relievers in their pens now. Teams will carry a left hander who's purpose is nothing more than to face the oppositions big left handed bat in the latter innings. They will come in to face one or two batters only and they only way they will ever pitch to a right handed batter is if one is sandwiched in between two good left handed bats that a team wants to leave that lefty reliever in to face.

Starting pitchers do not even go 8 innings nearly as often as they used to, much less throw complete games. Even if a starter is throwing a great game, a team will almost certainly go to their closer in the 9th.

You telling me the running game is dead? How come teams in the playoffs and teams who made it to the superbowl can run the rock! Do the Jets and Bills give up on run game? No, of course not, because its a misnomer. The pass game has evolved to be more 4-5 WR sets and with great QB's it lends itself to be done more, but with crappy to avg. QB's, the run game is a huge part of a game plan. Do the KC Chiefs not use the run game? SF? Seattle? New England?

Cmon man. this is crap.