The Truth about Draft Boards

[killswitch]

Sorry to start a new thread, but I need to make a point about this thread, http://www.finheaven.com/boardvb2/showthread.php?t=74618

In the link above are Russ Lande's top 10 prospects at each position based on his projected eventual NFL ability of each prospect. For those that don't know, Russ Lande is a former NFL scout, who now produces his own yearly draft book. He's known for his in-depth explinations and grading systems. His "claim to fame" is his self-developed QB rating system, in which he rated Marc Bulger (in 2000) as a first round pick, even though the general public had him as a late-rounder/FA type (he wasn't drafted till the 6th rd). He also rated Tom Brady as a 3rd-round pick greatly against the general public's opinion. And he had the guts to assess Tim Couch (the unanimous #1 player in the '99 draft) as the 36th player on his draft board. (Here's a link to Russ's site: http://www.gmjr.com/ )


Anyway, in the link at the top, you can see Russ's top ten at each position are very unconventional. Some would think they're laughable. In reality, they're not laughable at all. Russ bases his ratings on in-depth studies of each player. He's a credible source and watches and studies hours of film on all the prospects he rates. Plus he has invalueable experience as an NFL scout for the Browns. If he pulled the rankings out of his as$ as, then it'd be laughable. But he didn't.


My point is: the common "draft board" that the general public creates for the draft every year is wrong every year. That's why you see 5th-rounders making the all-rookie team, 6th-rounders like Rex Hadnot outplaying first-rounders like Vernon Carey (look back before the '04 draft. The way it stands now, Hadnot may very well should've been put ahead of Carey on the draft board. But the public and NFL teams had Hadnot as more like the 15th-ranked OG as opposed to Carey's 1st-rd grade and 3rd or better ranking among the OG's. Would you have thought the person who made a draft board with Hadnot ahead of Carey is crazy? I proabably would have. But as it stands now, that person very well may prove to be right); 1st-rounders, like John Avery, out of the league after 3 years, while 5th-rounders who are too small to play like Zach Thomas, become future Hall of Famers; supposed franchise skill players and 1st overall picks like Tim Couch and Ki-Jana Carter proving to be backup material, while sixth-rd picks like Marc Bulger, prove to be efficient, solid, productive starters (and MVP of the Pro Bowl).


So... IMO it's extremely rash to laugh at something like Russ Lande's rankings just because they're "unconventional" and not in correspondance to the uninformed general public's ratings. It's ridiculous to glance at his ratings and think you know more than he does, when he puts countless hours of work to back up his judgments, and especially when history is on his side every year, proving that the common general public's draft board before each draft is always way off, and that the actual draft board is in reality extremely unconventional in itself.


If you don't like Russ, it should't be because his ratings are so different than the general public's. Maybe his ratings will prove to be terrible and maybe that's why people don't like him, rightly so. But just because his ratings are unconventional doesn't mean they're automatically bad. We'll have to wait a few years to tell from these '05 ratings....


And don't get me wrong, everyone's entitled to their opinion - u can still think Russ is an idiot. I'm not even arguing that Russ Lande is a really good talent eveluator. I'm not biasd towards him. I'm merely trying to give both sides... and I'm trying to show how stupid it is to automatically think someone is dumb when they are unconventional, especially when that person actually has a reasonable and credible basis for their projections. (sorry if i'm being redundant)


As Awsi Dooger, a fellow finheaven poster, said in the other thread:

[Russ Lande] is annually unafraid to buck conventional wisdom instead of the "why be alone when I can be a clone?" robotic idiocy. It's symbolic of that mindset that so many here are already ranting at his lists when they see differences from typical order. Meanwhile, by next August 4th rounders all around the league will be outplaying guys drafted significantly higher.

BTW, If any of us were actually able to see the draft board of all 32 NFL teams, I'm sure some of us would feel like laughing at some of those ratings too, as they would be way different (or at least much more different than people would expect IMO) than the general public's ratings. In fact, here's some interesting tidbits from www.nfldraftscout.com , a site I subscribe to: (I know this was posted previously)

INTERESTING WAR ROOM TIDBITS:

There is at least one team had has AKRON quarterback CHARLIE FRYE rated ahead of one or both Aaron Rodgers and Alex Smith... there is at least one team that has FRYE as the top-rated quarterback in the draft... there is at least one team that has either LOUISVILLE junior running back ERIC SHELTON or TENNESSEE senior running back CEDRIC HOUSTON among the Top-5 RB's in the draft... there is at least one team that has GEORGIA senior wide receiver REGGIE BROWN rated above his teammate, FRED GIBSON, and also have him with a first round grade... there is at least one team that does not have one TIGHT END graded out with a third round grade... having the "Second Tier" tight end run starting between the fourth and fifth round... there is at least one team that has former NEBRASKA offensive lineman RICHIE INCOGNITO rated among the Top-3 centers in the draft... there is at least one team that has MICHIGAN senior DAVID BAAS not rated among the Top-5 offensive guards in the draft... but instead has him as the top-rated center... there is at least one team that has VIRGINIA senior offensive guard ELTON BROWN as the top-rated guard in the draft... but several teams have said he has "Day One" game film... but question his strength, commitment and post-season choices... there is at least one team that has WASHINGTON senior offensive tackle KHALIF BARNES rated as the #1 tackle in the draft.

There is at least one team that has either/both TENNESSEE TECH senior offensive tackle FRANK OMIYALE and SAGINAW VALLEY STATE senior offensive tackle TODD HERREMANS rated among the Top-10 tackles in the draft... there is at least one team that does not have WISCONSIN senior defensive end ERASMUS JAMES rated among the Top-3 DE's in the draft... there is at least one team that has NORTHWESTERN senior defensive tackle LUIS CASTILLO rated among the Top-2 DT's in the draft... there is at least one team that does not have FLORIDA STATE senior defensive tackle TRAVIS JOHNSON rated among the Top-5 defensive tackles in the draft... there is at least one team that has given TEXAS senior linebacker DERRICK JOHNSON less than a first round grade.

There is at least one team that does not have FLORIDA junior linebacker CHANNING CROWDER rated among the Top-5 inside linebackers in the draft... there is at least one team that has CONNECTICUT senior linebacker ALFRED FINCHER rated among the Top-3 inside linebackers in the draft... there is at least one team that has VIRGINIA junior linebacker DARRYL BLACKSTOCK rated as high as a late first round choice in the draft... however, there is also at least one team that has BLACKSTOCK rated as between a third-to-fourth round choice in the draft.

There is at least one team that has MISSOURI senior cornerback SHIRDONYA MITCHELL with a mid-round grade inspite of the ACL injury he suffered at his Pro Day... which may force him to miss his entire rookie campaign... there is at least one team that has MARYLAND senior cornerback DOMONIQUE FOXWORTH rated as high as a second round choice in the draft... there is at least one team that has DUKE senior safety ALEX GREEN rated among the Top-10 safety prospects in the draft... there is at least one team that has OHIO STATE senior kicker MIKE NUGENT rated as a second round choice in the draft.


Courtesy of Next Level Scouting, NLScouting.com

 

[Agent51]

Very good post man (not sarcasm). There are things I really liked and things I really disliked about his board. Some things (like LeFors being up so high) I have been preaching all along (not that he should be the #2 QB taken, but that he IS a great QB and would be a late round STEAL). Very well written post in his defense.

 

[Boik14]

Hadnot did not outplay carey at all. He was good but so was Carey. Carey just got stuck behind our best OL last year, St Clair and he's simply not a guard like people think he is. That was Carey's worst year at Miami. So where was Carey to play? You werent going to put him at LT when he hadnt practiced there since his 2nd year at UM.

 

[Boik14]

Other than that the site looks intersting and im checking it out now so TY for that.

 

[killswitch]

Hadnot did not outplay carey at all. He was good but so was Carey. Carey just got stuck behind our best OL last year, St Clair and he's simply not a guard like people think he is. That was Carey's worst year at Miami. So where was Carey to play? You werent going to put him at LT when he hadnt practiced there since his 2nd year at UM.

That's debatable. Tony Wise's philiosophy, at least what he said when he was our OL coach, has been to play the top 5 O-lineman on the team. And, bottom line is Hadnot started 7 games while Carey strated only twice. And, actually, Carey was tried at OG. If he was better than Hadnot at OG, he would've started ahead of him I believe. But, anyway, that's debatable. Maybe Carey will prove to be better than Carey. But that doesn't change the original point I was trying to make about how often lower-rated players turn out to be better than higher-rated ones.

 

[phins17]

Great post man.

 

[Boik14]

That's debatable. Tony Wise's philiosophy, at least what he said when he was our OL coach, has been to play the top 5 O-lineman on the team. And, bottom line is Hadnot started 7 games while Carey strated only twice. And, actually, Carey was tried at OG. If he was better than Hadnot at OG, he would've started ahead of him I believe. But, anyway, that's debatable. Maybe Carey will prove to be better than Carey. But that doesn't change the original point I was trying to make about how often lower-rated players turn out to be better than higher-rated ones.

I know your point but thanks for proving my point. My whole point was that Carey is not a guard! The only spots he can play are RT and LT and he had not played LT in 2 years. Otherwise i agree with everyone else; good job on the original post.

 

[Dol-Fan Dupree]

I have to disagree that it was a good post. It came off as very smug. Basically the way I read it was, "If you disagree with Russ Lande you are thickheaded". It is not like the other scouts do not do research and watch film and all the work that Russ do. They actually get paid by real teams unlike this Russ guy. If he was that amazing he would have an NFL job.

 

[jbond]

and there was at least one team that thought Eddie Moor was a second round pick....despite 'everyone' saying he was a 4th rounder....

All I know is about "scouts" and the "public" or "personnel directors" is that for every 1 they make a name on guessing correctly....they guessed wrong on 5 times as many.

 

[killswitch]

I have to disagree that it was a good post. It came off as very smug. Basically the way I read it was, "If you disagree with Russ Lande you are thickheaded". It is not like the other scouts do not do research and watch film and all the work that Russ do. They actually get paid by real teams unlike this Russ guy. If he was that amazing he would have an NFL job.

I didn't mean to come off that way. I'm not saying Russ is amazing. If his ratings are way off then there's a valid reason to think Russ is an idiot. But, meanwhile, until his ratings are proven "right" or "wrong," it's rash to disagree with him based only on the fact that his ratings are unconventional.

 

[poornate]

Can we have access to what his picks were 2-3 years ago? Now that would really interest me...

 

[Spicy Henne]

Can we have access to what his picks were 2-3 years ago? Now that would really interest me...

Exactly
That I'd like to see.
Players like Zach Thomas and Tom Brady are the exception and not the rule. For every Rex Hadnot that exceeds the expectations of a sixth rounder, there's a hundred other players who barely live up to them

 

[coach72]

My three round mock draft.

With the trade of the 2nd pick to the vikings for their 2 1sts and 3rd . Then the vikings take Braylon Edwards.
1. 7th overall Ronnie Brown or Caddilac Williams.

1. 18th overall Kalif Barnes, Thomas Davis, Mark Clayton, or Marcus Spears.

At 2nd 46th overall because of us trading down with the vikings we cause a domino effect because of all the offensive players being selected in the first 7 picks the only good players left are cornerbacks until Kansas City picks and with that pick we draft either Charlie Frye, Justin Tuck, Mark Bradley, Reggie Brown, Vincent Jackson or Cris Spencer a no brainer.

With the 70th pick overall we pick either , Adrian McPherson, Corey Webster, or Richie Incognito. Then with the 80th overall Courtney Roby, Vincent Fuller, Jason Brown,Vernand Morency or Alvin Pearman. :cooldude:

 

[djfresh47]

That's debatable. Tony Wise's philiosophy, at least what he said when he was our OL coach, has been to play the top 5 O-lineman on the team. And, bottom line is Hadnot started 7 games while Carey strated only twice. And, actually, Carey was tried at OG. If he was better than Hadnot at OG, he would've started ahead of him I believe. But, anyway, that's debatable. Maybe Carey will prove to be better than Carey. But that doesn't change the original point I was trying to make about how often lower-rated players turn out to be better than higher-rated ones.

I like the original post, but bringing in Tony Wise's philosophy towards coaching really does not help any arguement.

 

[larfo2224]

Very good post. My next thing to do is check out the website and see his rankings.