The way I see it going in 2014 (long post) | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

The way I see it going in 2014 (long post)

bootang25

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I don't get to post as often as I would like, as I usually just catch up on all things Finheaven on my smartphone, and that is a pain in the butt to try and type on, but with the season just days away, I feel as if I have a pretty good view into how this team is built, and what I think is about to happen. There are 4 basic components as to why I think this Miami Dolphin team is about to be a force to be reckoned with, and I will go into them in detail.

1. Chip Kelly's Theory

Have read on here countless times since the hiring of Bill Lazor as offensive coordinator that he won't run any of the stuff Chip ran, because we don't have a Shady McCoy, or their offensive line. Any kind of comment like that tells me that the person saying that has zero clue about the beauty of the Chip Kelly offense. I have been a huge fan of Chip for a long time now, I highly, highly recommend the site Fishduck.com to anyone trying to learn about the offense. You can also check out Fishduck Minute videos on youtube where he really breaks down everything about the offense. Giving you a cliff's notes version of the offense would be to tell you that he doesn't want a 500 page playbook, he wants to be able to master a few key concepts, allowing his players to play fast and with little hesitation. A KISS philosophy, Keep It Simple Stupid if you will. Look for matchups. Create matchups. Ask and you shall receive.

He wants versatile player's who he can then align all over the formation. Through formations, personnel groupings, shifts and motions, he is trying to find, and then more importantly, EXPLOIT your weaknesses. This offense has chunk yards a plenty, and it is by design. You can almost be a puppet master pulling the strings, moving the defense however you please. One of the things I can't wait to see progress are "packaged plays' The bubble screen off of play action to Brandon Gibson vs Atlanta was a beautiful thing to watch. It starts as most Chip play's do, simply counting the numbers, is it a light or heavy box. With the three receivers to the top, Atlanta did not match numbers, so instead of Tannehill going zone read keying on the defensive end, he gives the call for the bubble screen. Matthews goes to the outside CB to block, D Williams runs up the sideline, and Gibson does the bubble action. Stealing really. And the best part is, in regular season, that will be Mike Wallace wide, and all you have to do is throw the bubble a few times, regardless of gain, and sooon enough the D hesitates even a second, and Wallace is by the defense in an instant. This is the kind of stuff that the Chip offense creates. Force the defense to be fundamentally sound, to play assignment football, and take few risks (greater consequences) All of this goes against what a defense wants to do, after the TD drive vs Atlanta, the Falcons announcers begrudgingly said that the defense was on their heels the entire time.

Contrast this with the Mike Sherman offense, where through blue 88 Go, Go Go, my wife could by week 5 of 2012, while at the sink washing dishes, tell if run or pass was coming. Combine that farce with the abysmal talent to protect the QB, or open lanes in the running game, and you have a situation where a defense can pretty much be as attacking as you can possibly be. And Ryan Tannehill still had great success despite these difficult, almost impossible circumstances. So from one end of the spectrum, getting attacked with almost reckless abandon, to having the defense now on their heels and unsure what is coming next, with plays that can make the defense wrong no matter what they do, someone please tell me how this offense isn't about to simply be MUCH BETTER.

2. Focus & Resiliency

Anyone who saw the NFL Films 2013 Season should understand this title. Simply put, this team, the same key group of guys for the most part, went through one of the longest, toughest, mentally and physically challenging season a team could endure, and they NEVER separated. No finger pointing. No blame game. Everyone stuck together, everyone fought through the adversity, and they simply came up short. Sometimes failing when it is right their at your fingertips is the last push a team needs to get over the hump. Looking at the progress of the program from 2012 to 2013, no one can say that the arrow is still not pointing up. Their was marked improvement at many positions from year one to year two, very few if any players regressed, and team chemistry has been built. They showed an ability to maintain focus, and to be resilient against seemingly impossible odds. That is something that I don't often hear this team given credit for, and frankly it pisses me off.

3. Talent
I am really tired of hearing this team doesn't have talent. Position by position, I look at this team and am unsure where we are devoid of talent. On offense, you have a QB who can run 4.62, who has elite ball placement (transitioning the WR up the field) in the short to intermediate game, has the arm strength and willingness to pull the trigger on tight window throws, who rarely makes the same mistakes twice. A guy who has shown incredible toughness. Poise. Listen to his 10 minutes with the media the first day after the Jonathan Martin bullying scandal broke, and tell me he doesn't have incredible leadership. Only people who want screamers and rah rah guys would question Tannehill's leadership. The deep ball with Wallace has a lot to do with the amount of space he has to throw that deep ball to, which will greatly increase this year as we move and manipulate Safeties on the defense. Matt Moore is a proven NFL QB, enough said about a backup.

RB was a grave concern of mine until I saw Knowshon Moreno in action game 3. He brings everything we need to this offense, the ability to make you miss in tight quarters inside, the toughness to fall forward and keep the down and distances reasonable, and the burst to really exploit creases and defeat angles. He will eat, and I find it only according that a man named Moreno (regardless of spelling) helps this team reach greatness again. Lamar Miller will resume his much more productive role as the 2nd, a la his rookie year behind Bush. And though I was very late to the Orleans Darkwa party, he brings everything Daniel Thomas didn't.

WR/TE is the strength of our team. Guys that have proven they can be successful and be featured are Wallace, Hartline, Gibson, Matthews, Clay. Anyone who saw Jarvis Landry at LSU understands what he brings. A big thing we need at WR moving forward is the ability to block on the perimeter, something Landry and Matthews have shown an ability to do, a big reason they will see the field a lot more than the number on the depth chart might indicate. Dion Sims allows for formation versatility, which is big. Strong hands, a big target. Can't have 3 Jimmy Graham's at a spot, Madden thoughts be damned. By the way, I think Charles Clay puts himself in the top TE conversation by the end of the year. He is a true weapon, and this offense loves to let weapon's eat. I wouldn't be shocked at all if he went over 1000 yards.

The offensive line is miles better both from a talent and athletic standpoint. They proved to be a major upgrade, and with having defenses on heels and tempo wearing defense's out, won't face the same pressure last year's group saw. JaWuan James was a fav of mine pre-draft, glad he has proven me right on that. Albert is a GREAT LEADER, something I don't think he gets credit for, a great personality, certainly way more of an upgrade over Jake Long there.

DLine is our other strength. Cam Wake has NEVER gotten to simply hunt with a 2 TD lead, I can't wait to see that. OV is NASTY, watch him and him only for about 5 plays and you will understand. Incredible effort. Then great depth with Jordan, Fede, Shelby, Odrick, Starks, Mitchell, Johnson. Keep the rotation fresh, wreak havoc.

LB's get killed and at times rightfully so, the thing this regime covets is aggressiveness and pursuit to the ball. They understand their really is little shutdown defense anymore, it is about minimizing damage, and being able to play in the Red Zone. All the LB's can blitz and that allows us to attack everywhere.

The secondary is about keeping everything in front, playing smart, not giving up huge plays, and they want guys who can break on the football. Delmas will bring an attitude that this team needed, in fact, Landry, Turner, Mitchell, Tripp, Finnegan, Delmas all added to bring a nastiness to this team too. Grimes is absolutely ridiculous, and Jimmy Wilson is much better than given credit for.

4. Swagger

It is almost impossible to play at your best and have confidence enduring everything that this team went through last year. Their was hardly anything resembling fun. This is a confident team. Listen and read every quote, that quiet confidence, almost bordering on ****y seeps through. They know what last year was, and they've practiced everyday together. They know what is about to happen. We beat the good teams last year, lost to the bad teams. No more losing to bad teams. Bad teams we beat up and build confidence. It is coming together. I have a feeling that this New England game is a game where this team isn't playing to survive and win. I think they want the first round knockout. They are glad this game is on the calendar where it is at. I expect Sunday to be a game a lot like the Wildcat game, a game where New England isn't sure what hit them. I have it 38-23 with Tannehill having 4 passing TD's. The schedule is tough, but this same team wasn't scared vs Pittsburgh in the snow, only one team whipped us last year (the Saints whip a lot of people at home in primetime) I predict an 11-5 season, with Tannehill having around 4400 yards, and 37 TD's. Great times are coming for the Miami Dolphins.
 
Thanks for your contribution and please don't take this the wrong way, because I appreciated and enjoyed your post, but:

Have read on here countless times since the hiring of Bill Lazor as offensive coordinator that he won't run any of the stuff Chip ran, because we don't have a Shady McCoy, or their offensive line.

I feel like we've been reading a completely different forum for the past five months. :lol:

Is there some kind of Shadow Finheaven out there I don't know about? Well if there is, please say hi to TXDolphan for me, and ask him to let go of the fact that we drafted 'Wrongie' Brown instead of Aaron Rodgers.
 
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I agree with a lot of this. The people putting gobs of cash on the under predicting a 2011 type season are going to be doing lots of fingernail chewing come the latter half of the season. At least I don't see any evidence this team is on the verge of throwing in the towel.

I agree that we'll attempt the first round knockout this Sunday and realistically that probably gives us the best chance at winning the game. It opens us up to a greater likelihood of being knocked out ourselves but, **** it, go big or go home.

Tannehill is capable of outplaying Tom Brady this game. And if he does we should win. The team that has won the passer rating differential has won all 4 games so far, and I predict this one will be no different.
 
I agree with a lot of this. The people putting gobs of cash on the under predicting a 2011 type season are going to be doing lots of fingernail chewing come the latter half of the season. At least I don't see any evidence this team is on the verge of throwing in the towel.

I agree that I think we'll attempt the first round knockout this Sunday and realistically that probably gives us the best chance at winning the game. It opens us up to a greater likelihood of being knocked out ourselves but, **** it, go big or go home.

Joe Philbin was pretty aggressive and showed a willingness to go for it on 4th down early on as the Dolphins coach. He started playing it closer to the vest and I think that was a huge mistake for him.

We have a football team that is talented but prone to mistakes. Dropped footballs, missed blocking assignments, fumbles, interceptions, etc. We need to sustain drives. I don't want to see Brandon Fields punting the ball from midfield unless it's 4th and at least 5 or 6.
 
Joe Philbin was pretty aggressive and showed a willingness to go for it on 4th down early on as the Dolphins coach. He started playing it closer to the vest and I think that was a huge mistake for him.

The only instance I recall him being too passive in my opinion was the Cincinnati game, the play before the walk off safety.
 
LB's get killed and at times rightfully so, the thing this regime covets is aggressiveness and pursuit to the ball. They understand their really is little shutdown defense anymore, it is about minimizing damage, and being able to play in the Red Zone. All the LB's can blitz and that allows us to attack everywhere.

They still scare the crap out of me. Agree with a lot of what you point out as strengths, but like JDW points out the offense has to finish, we still haven't seen a lot of that. If we can get the offense scoring rankings up to mid-teens it would go along way to possible playoff berth.
 
I like your post, and I hope you are correct about the offense. That will be a great relief and getting us out of this constant mediocrity. The only concern I have is Philbin's coaching the last two games of the last season. I am unable to get over that; would that be solely a Sherman issue. I hope that is the case and we get out under. Secondary is a concern.
 
bootang25 - Thx for your uplifting perspective. There is a very wide range of differing opinions predicting the Dolphin season ahead. I too am more optimistic than at any stage of the past 15 years that we are set for a really good year. However, I listened to Bruce Murray on Sirius NFL radio go through his season projections for all teams and he sees Miami as a 4 - 12 season or worse. He and Rich Gannon interviewed Joe Philbin and he said that he was being generous forseeing 4 wins, because he sees the team as being so deficient in everything. He sees Miami, Buffalo and Oakland as clearly the worst teams in the NFL. (Gannon predicted an 8 - 8 season like last year).
I really expect a 10+ win season, making the playoffs while this professional NFL expert is prognosticating a total disaster with total certainty. I see Tannehill as a really promising QB with high potential but he seems him as a failure just waiting to be replaced.
 
Thanks for that post. Really enjoyed reading and this post is a million times better than everything Omar and Mando have ever published.
 
I think 6-10/7-9 is the floor and 9-7 is the ceiling. Should be somewhere in between there and be in contention for the last wildcard spot.
 
Great post.

This is the best offense we've had talent wise since Marino and the Marks brothers. We also have, what I think will wind up being the best Offensive Coordinator we've had in 20 years. We have an offense that now should be able to score 24 points+ per game.

If we can minimize turnovers, Tannehill should have a banner year.

I also think that Clay (if fully healthy) and Landry are going to have monster years. I also love the stability that Moreno brings to the run game, he's just a solid, one cut, tough runner that can punish you if you don't wrap up properly.

This is the best looking Fins team we've had hear since the late 80's.

Unfortunately, the Pats appear to be loaded as well. They've put together a great squad.
 
Great post.

This is the best offense we've had talent wise since Marino and the Marks brothers. We also have, what I think will wind up being the best Offensive Coordinator we've had in 20 years. We have an offense that now should be able to score 24 points+ per game.

If we can minimize turnovers, Tannehill should have a banner year.

I also think that Clay (if fully healthy) and Landry are going to have monster years. I also love the stability that Moreno brings to the run game, he's just a solid, one cut, tough runner that can punish you if you don't wrap up properly.

This is the best looking Fins team we've had hear since the late 80's.

Unfortunately, the Pats appear to be loaded as well. They've put together a great squad.
This. And therein lies the problem. The Pats have the division locked up already unless Brady gets hurt. We appear to be better in many facets but I don't think we - not anyone else in our division will really challenge NE when all is said and done. Getting tired of this! Please Lord make it stop.
 
Great post, Would read again X2.

Some notes after watching a bunch of tape (including the OP's suggestions)

I'm officially all hyped up on the potential of this Offense! I watched all the Ducks Zone Read Youtube videos as the OP suggested and for me it was worth it as I now know much more than I did about Zone Read and common spread offense concepts.

Here is the first one, Watch this if you want to know about the basics of the zone read that Chip Kelly used in Oregon (we will also use some of these concepts this year)
[video=youtube;ekf3RGWwqMQ]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ekf3RGWwqMQ[/video]

After watching all these video's I watched eagles tape from last year. Finally I Re-Watched Tanne's first drive of the preseason. You can definitely see some of Chip Kelly wrinkles in Tannehill's first Lazor led TD drive of the Preseason (especially in the running plays). I think after that drive the coaches have done a good job of keeping everything extremely vanilla to prevent giving away too many wrinkles to the pats and the rest of the league. The real beauty of a properly run Chip Kelly (Eagles) style offense is that you can (and sometimes want to) broadcast your intentions to the other team, this can cause the other team to overpursue to the play that they think is coming and open up huge holes that the Offense can hopefully exploit for big gains.

Below is an example of a very basic breakdown of the options involved in just one play that we will probably see many times this year:An Outside zone read run play.

Step One: Purposefully show the Defense a formation that is usually a common Outside Zone Read run the right. (basically a wide sweep to the right where the OL pulls to the right)
Step Two: After snap all of the O linemen shift to the right and start run blocking for a wide sweep to the right.
Step Three: QB gets the snap and very quickly looks to see if the DE/OLB to his left makes a step or a move to pursue the perceived sweep to the right.

Step Four:At this point the QB must make a split second decision:
A) If the QB sees the DE/OLB make a move or a step to go after the (perceived) run to the right the QB can keep and run the ball to his left though the gap created. (sometimes for a huge gain)
B) If the QB sees the DE/OLB to his left freeze or stay back, the QB then hands the ball to the runner who now has one extra blocker and one less defender to worry about (this creates a mismatch that favors the runner)

Step Five: The runner (who now has the ball and hopefully an extra blocker or mismatch) also has to make a split second decision on his run:
A1) First look for a gap created by possible overpursuit and run through that gap if it exists. (a potentially large gain probably in the middle or left side)
B1) If no huge gap is available simply Follow your zone blocking lineman and run the intended far right side sweep, if the qb did his job, there is a good chance that the runner should have an extra blocker and this should prove to be good for a solid gain on the ground. (Option B1 should be the most common outcome of this run play)

To make this Chip Kelly style stuff work really well as you can see you need 3 basic things. Which I believe we have for the most part but must develop throughout the year.
1) Athletic and smart QB (check)
2) Athletic lineman who can pull, shed blocks and get down the field (well see)
3) A RB who can make good split second decisions (Moreno I think so, Miller still not so sure, also WR's who can run block are also a bonus)

So if anyone else also had the following question: If the Chip Kelly style offense is so good, why don't all NFL teams use it? well the answer to this is simple: You need all of the above to run this well. And as someone mentioned earlier in this thread Tannehill is faster than Foles and should be able to more effectively gash defenses that do not account for him. Teams with slow QB's or heavy slow OL's don't even bother trying to run much of these Chip Kelly style plays as they lose effectiveness if they don't have all 3 components. Time to perfect that QB slide Ryan.

This offense will be miles different from what we saw from Sherman last year. For me watching those videos show's me how important the RB's decision making is this new scheme. I think Moreno has the smarts to pull off a Chip Kelly style zone read spread offense. I am not so sure about Lamar... but if he can figure it out as well he would be very dangerous with his speed running through all the gaps that this offense can create. The other thing to note is that we will might see Tanehill and the RB's struggle with hand offs early on. I would also bet we will see more read option run plays on 3rd and short. No more of this throwing every time its 3rd and 3.

Hope we can pull this off. should be fun to watch. I did not even get into all the passing possibility options and things that can be run out of this style of of offense. I expect a good year for Tannehill and at least 9-7 this year.
 
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