Thoughts on moves and non-moves... | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Thoughts on moves and non-moves...

oasis

Lost in the fog
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I'm just going to lay out some thoughts here for the interest of discussion. If you've resolved to read through my post, please try to follow the logic instead of arguing with the premises - there are certain assumptions I am making.

Assumption #1: Steve Ross is aware that the problem is [mostly] coaching and that players have given up on this staff.
Assumption #2: Tannenbaum, for the time-being, remains Ross' right-hand man who is tasked with cleaning this up.
Assumption #3: A coaching change, as minor as DC Coyle or as major as HC Philbin, has been at least on the table leading up the London game.
Assumption #4: Ross isn't hell-bent on the destruction of the Dolphins, and actually WANTS this team to succeed.

Now, Tannenbaum was unavailable for New York media this week, saying he had a busy week. Why exactly do you think the week was particularly busy for him? Was it just because of the London game? Maybe, but it's more likely he had some serious work to do, something along the lines of presenting Ross with a detailed analysis of options.

What exactly are the options that are presented to Ross? First there's a split in the road in salvaging the season (trying to make the playoffs) vs. giving up. You have to decide if any of your options can legitimately salvage your season, as defined by making the playoffs.

Option #1: Leave Philbin in place.
Fork in the road: Giving up.
Likely result: Team continues to play without motivation, limps to anywhere between 1 and 4 wins.
Pros: Top draft pick next draft.
Cons: You fail to send a message of accountability, and the fanbase further questions you as owner.

Option #2: Force Philbin to fire DC Coyle.
Fork in the road: Salvage the season by trying to fix the defense
Likely result: Philbin probably refuses to fire Coyle. Even if he does fire Coyle, next man up to be DC would be Mark Duffner. Unit probably improves marginally - enough to win an extra game or two, but still finishes below .500 with no shot at the playoffs. Bringing in a DC and new playbook from outside is not a feasible option.
Pros: You win a few extra games, maybe placate a few unhappy defensive players, show action and accountability
Cons: Still don't make playoffs because your offense will still be quite bad.

Option #3: Fire Philbin and Coyle and possibly Lazor, promote someone from within to be interim HC
Fork in the road: Salvage the season
Likely result: Maybe win a few extra games, but still don't make the playoffs. Unlikely that someone from within Joe's staff is significantly more capable in fixing deep-rooted problems in a few weeks.
Pros: Get a look at someone you might consider for HC next season, win a few extra games, placate fans by sending a message of accountability
Cons: Still don't make playoffs.
Within this scenario you must consider whether you even have options for interim HC available to you. Who are those people? Bill Lazor, Darren Rizzi, and Dan Campbell. Firstly, are any of these people legitimate candidates for long-term head coaches of the Miami Dolphins? Secondly, are any of these people actually worthy of a promotion given their performance in their current position THIS SEASON? I think despite Lazor having some positive attributes, he has performed extremely poorly as OC this season, with little to no efforts at adjustments. He's proving to be just as stubborn as Joe Philbin, and he has essentially pissed away any support he had within and outside the organization as a possible HC solution for the Dolphins. Meanwhile, Rizzi and Campbell have been fine at their positions. Not great, just adequate. Even if you believe that warrants a PROMOTION to head freakin' coach, you have to laugh at yourself a little bit if you think they are actually contenders for the head-coaching job next season. So going through this thought exercise, we see that we actually don't have anyone who would be useful for a head-coaching try-out, and any positives to come out of a change still probably wouldn't result in a playoff season. So really the only pro from this option becomes "sending a message of accountability."

Anyone who thinks it's possible to save this season with a playoff appearance is fooling themselves. You're talking about winning meaningless games vs. sending a message of accountability.

Look at the pros and cons of all the scenarios, and weigh that top draft pick in there - it's the only tangible/quantifiable outcome you can really guarantee. After the whole suck for Luck thing the Colts executed, I can bet you owners and GMs see tanking a season a whole lot differently than they used to.

It's easy to see how the logic points to not firing Joe Philbin, because he will actually end up getting you the best possible tangible result out of this mess. Anything else you do is largely to placate players/fans, which might get you a few more tickets sold this season but really does nothing for the future of the team. It also makes you, as owner, appear to be bullied by your fanbase and players.
 
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