Throw away your mock draft- it's gonna be a CRAZY first round | Page 4 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Throw away your mock draft- it's gonna be a CRAZY first round

Canadi-Phin said:
Didn't SKov just run a really crappy time like 5.11? That is a huge red flag to me. I don't think every LB needs to run a 4.5 but in the NFL a 5 sec 40 is going to get completely exposed.
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You worry about how fast he ran 40 yards in his underwear, I watch football players play football. Every time I watched a Stanford game the last couple of years, Skov made critical plays in huge moments all over the field. He had no trouble stopping the Oregon offense that was supposed to be so fast.
 
Los Dolfins said:
This is all pure speculation. Much is well written already and nobody "knows" what's going to happen. Saying "...things I'm hearing..." without sources raises the credibility issue right off the bat. Sorry.
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I'm not going to name drop lol and NONE of the teams that people work for that I talked to need a QB..
 
WVDolphan said:
You worry about how fast he ran 40 yards in his underwear, I watch football players play football. Every time I watched a Stanford game the last couple of years, Skov made critical plays in huge moments all over the field. He had no trouble stopping the Oregon offense that was supposed to be so fast.
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Forget the 40 time, he has tight hips.. not fluid in his pass drops and lacks the change of direction skills necessary to be a 3 down LB
 
Roman529 said:
I was agreeing with you until you said C.J. Mosely might fall out of round one. That ain't happening. The injury concerns are overblown.
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I know of one team that took him off their board.. he's a top 15 talent but the injuries are a really big deal.. Plus Alabama prospects are vastly overrated and teams are starting to understand that.. Andre Smith, Julio Jones, and Marcel Dareus are really the only ones that haven't been busts.

2 reasons why Alabama players aren't what they are thought to be in the NFL

1. Just about every single one comes in injured
2. Saban is such a good coach they have all just about hit their ceiling as prospects, what you see is what you get.. no real uspide
 
WVDolphan said:
You can toss out the Mock drafts pretty much every year.

Mock drafts are essentially a waste of time. Someone may be able to nail down the top several picks(not this year) but there are so many variables that its an effort in futility. One trade and everything is thrown off. An entire first round mock is lucky to match 10 teams to their actual picks and that is only if they hit the first few picks correctly.

Some people love making and looking at Mock drafts........ its really silly. The best you can do is speculate at what players a team may be interested in.

Teddy Bustwater isnt worth a 1st round pick. In fact there are quite a few QBs who are projected in rounds 2-5 that are better players than Bustwater.

Skov is still the guy I want at LB.

This is a great year for QBs despite what some were saying early. Some of the projected 1st rounders arent as great as years past, but this draft features several guys in the mid rounds who I think could be legit NFL QBs. Combine that with the fact that next years draft is almost completely void of good QBs and I think its imperative the Phins grab a QB this year.

Everyone is saying if Tannehill flops this year the phins will move on, and that is likely true along with Philbin and others being fired, but the idea that they just go back to the drawing board and draft a QB next year if that happens is not proper thinking. The fact that this year is loaded with QBs in the mid rounds whereas next season there arent many good ones expected to be available tells me the wise thing to do would be to draft the QB this season and have him in place should you need him.

Manziel, McCarron, Murray, Garrapolo, Savage, or Carr would all be great options for the phins IMHO. In fact, Id love to just get on with it and draft 2 of those guys. We could probably fleece a team like Minnesota for their 1st pick in exchange for Tannehill. Take Johnny Football with that pick and then nab Murray later on. Do that along with drafting Skov and Amaro in rounds 2 and 3, take a playmaker WR with pick 19, and go cornfed from round 5 on and we could be in serious business.
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Do you really think that Hickey/Philbin would trade there 3rd year Quarterback to take a rookie when they are likely going to be fired if they don't make the playoffs? And then you don't want to address the Oline until 5th round? "Your rookie QB" is going to get devoured playing behind Albert-Smith-Pouncey-Thomas-Fox. Especially when you add in the fact that their play speed won't be nearly as quick as Tannehill. I've seen some ridiculous posts in others signatures by you, but this is by far the worst I have seen to date.
 
WVDolphan said:
You worry about how fast he ran 40 yards in his underwear, I watch football players play football. Every time I watched a Stanford game the last couple of years, Skov made critical plays in huge moments all over the field. He had no trouble stopping the Oregon offense that was supposed to be so fast.
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Running in underwear for the most part doesn't show anything but when its that slow, it shows a lot. Skov made some plays but in the NFL if he actually is that slow he will be eaten alive. Last year he had no Ints and 3 FF. So he had some sacks and tackles, tell me about these plays he made. He had 9 tackles against Oregon 5 solo. All year he had 5 PDs. Just not a huge playmaker on a really good team.
 
Just wanted to add how I absolutely hate how the NFL pushed back the draft 2 weeks.. in the old format the draft would be tonight (last Thursday of April) but instead we have to here more from Mel Kiper, Todd McShay, Mayock etc. for another 2 weeks. The thing is, they know they have everyone by the balls cus they still know people will tune in.. Just more revenue $$$$ for the NFL
 
Why is receiver on any of you guys lists? There are so many smokescreens put out right now. I'm almost 100% positive we won't be drafting a receiver in any round of this draft. Too many holes to fill to take a practice squad guy.
 
WVDolphan said:
You worry about how fast he ran 40 yards in his underwear, I watch football players play football. Every time I watched a Stanford game the last couple of years, Skov made critical plays in huge moments all over the field. He had no trouble stopping the Oregon offense that was supposed to be so fast.
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ha ha...put that 5.11 on the field in the nickle since you think he's an every down lb and watch how much it gets attacked and torched in coverage...that kids a 2 down guy...you try and get away with that level athlete and speed in coverage and you will get owned...

and no it's not a great draft for qbs not even close...but hey lets start matt moore right and be a contender...we'll contend alright...for the top pick in the 2015 draft
 
I don't understand how we went from a "very likely" 7 round projection to a "crazy" and unpredictable first round in a matter of days.

I appreciate futurescout's input but threads like this are mostly guesswork, IMO. In contrast, this morning I saw a wonderful set of metric evaluations on Rotoworld. The author posts here, or at least he used to. I'm shocked there isn't a related thread. He broke down virtually every position with terrific numerical perspective.

IMO, it's Nate Silver-caliber analysis applied to the draft. It moves the bar at least 5 or 10% toward reality, compared to where subjective flails would fall. Naturally there will be some misses, and the defensive types who cherish subjectivity will fixate on those, as opposed to appreciating the hours devoted and fantastic insight enabled.

Among the standout aspects, Bridgewater was dominant in virtually every category while Carr trailed badly. I'm going to laugh if Carr is picked high. Aaron Donald, as expected, has phenomenal pass rush percentages. There's no indication of Hageman's supposed lazy production. Kareem Martin of North Carolina has excellent numbers, rare for his position and frame. He's rising and rightfully so. Butch Davis is a monster recruiter. There are probably other North Carolina guys who he recruited who are undervalued. Khalil Mack accomplishes a high percentage of his sacks against pure air. Marquise Lee indeed has high percentage of drops, along with strange distribution of numbers thanks to Lane Kiffin's bizarre masochistic offense with all the out passes to flatfooted receivers.
 
Awsi Dooger said:
I don't understand how we went from a "very likely" 7 round projection to a "crazy" and unpredictable first round in a matter of days.

I appreciate futurescout's input but threads like this are mostly guesswork, IMO. In contrast, this morning I saw a wonderful set of metric evaluations on Rotoworld. The author posts here, or at least he used to. I'm shocked there isn't a related thread. He broke down virtually every position with terrific numerical perspective.

IMO, it's Nate Silver-caliber analysis applied to the draft. It moves the bar at least 5 or 10% toward reality, compared to where subjective flails would fall. Naturally there will be some misses, and the defensive types who cherish subjectivity will fixate on those, as opposed to appreciating the hours devoted and fantastic insight enabled.

Among the standout aspects, Bridgewater was dominant in virtually every category while Carr trailed badly. I'm going to laugh if Carr is picked high. Aaron Donald, as expected, has phenomenal pass rush percentages. There's no indication of Hageman's supposed lazy production. Kareem Martin of North Carolina has excellent numbers, rare for his position and frame. He's rising and rightfully so. Butch Davis is a monster recruiter. There are probably other North Carolina guys who he recruited who are undervalued. Khalil Mack accomplishes a high percentage of his sacks against pure air. Marquise Lee indeed has high percentage of drops, along with strange distribution of numbers thanks to Lane Kiffin's bizarre masochistic offense with all the out passes to flatfooted receivers.
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About the 7 round mock-Because it's very likely Miami drafts a guard and right tackle. Zack Martin is very likely to be available at #19 despite recent reports. Tre Mason received a 3rd round grade from the draft advisory board, and will more than likely be there. Of all the teams in the league I think Miami is going to be most predictable with there first round pick. A GUARD OR A RIGHT TACKLE.

When it comes to this thread, this is more than guesswork when ALL THE INFORMATION came from Coaches, scouts, executives in the NFL.

Kareem Martin may have nice combine #s or "metrics" (again, I hate metrics) if you watch his film he has no pass rush ability at all. I gave him a 5th round grade.

No doubt Hageman is lazy, and will be a bust if he is taken in the first round

You're going to laugh then, because Carr isn't getting past Minnesota at 8. It's very likely he's the first Quarterback taken by Cleveland at #4.
 
Awsi Dooger said:
I don't understand how we went from a "very likely" 7 round projection to a "crazy" and unpredictable first round in a matter of days.
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Again, you are taking the "very likely" part way too literal..

It's practically impossible to predict what a team will do with 7 out of 254 picks...

What I can tell you is if Zack Martin, Jawuan James, and Tre Mason are available when Miami picks in the first, second, and third round respectively, it's very likely they draft them.
 
dabeastdabone said:
Manziel will go in the top three. I still think Houston will take him.
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The only way I see Manziel in Houston is, if Houston takes Clowney, Atlanta drafts Manziel, and they trade.

Manziel's off the field issues are bigger than people think.. plenty of teams have him completely off their draft board.
 
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