Throw away your mock draft- it's gonna be a CRAZY first round | Page 7 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Throw away your mock draft- it's gonna be a CRAZY first round

Awsi Dooger said:
. In contrast, this morning I saw a wonderful set of metric evaluations on Rotoworld. The author posts here, or at least he used to. I'm shocked there isn't a related thread. He broke down virtually every position with terrific numerical perspective.

IMO, it's Nate Silver-caliber analysis applied to the draft. It moves the bar at least 5 or 10% toward reality, compared to where subjective flails would fall. Naturally there will be some misses, and the defensive types who cherish subjectivity will fixate on those, as opposed to appreciating the hours devoted and fantastic insight enabled.

Among the standout aspects, Bridgewater was dominant in virtually every category while Carr trailed badly. I'm going to laugh if Carr is picked high. Aaron Donald, as expected, has phenomenal pass rush percentages. There's no indication of Hageman's supposed lazy production. Kareem Martin of North Carolina has excellent numbers, rare for his position and frame. He's rising and rightfully so. Butch Davis is a monster recruiter. There are probably other North Carolina guys who he recruited who are undervalued. Khalil Mack accomplishes a high percentage of his sacks against pure air. Marquise Lee indeed has high percentage of drops, along with strange distribution of numbers thanks to Lane Kiffin's bizarre masochistic offense with all the out passes to flatfooted receivers.
Click to expand...

Link? I looked but couldn't find it.
 
I told a few of my buddies this back in October, but I see Derek Carr as a poor mans Aaron Rodgers. There's a few game tapes of Rodgers at Cal on youtube, and if you compare it with Carr's tape you will see a similar player. Both are very good athletes. Carr ran 4.69 only 0.01 slower than Manziel, with a 34.5 inch vertical. Both Carr and Rodgers have lightning quick releases and live arms with plus accuracy. I'm not saying Carr will be as good as Aaron Rodgers. I know that Jeff Tedford, who knows Carr extremely well, and found Rodgers out of Butte College, is seeing the same thing at #7 as Tampa's OC.. That's IF, he makes it past Cleveland and Oakland, pretty big if. Carr gets rattled under pressure, and like many big arm quarterbacks, he doesn't always transfer his weight from his front foot to back his back foot. I gave him a late 1st grade. I gave Tannehill a first round grade for a comparison. Ultimately, I think Carr ends up in the top 12-15 range during his prime years when it comes to best QBs in the NFL. I see him as a Cutler-Stafford type QB. Never elite, but if you put a good enough team around him, he can win you a super bowl.
 
cullenbigcstill said:
Except he was the clown riding the jet ski and playing receiver. If I'm a GM and I see a potential round 1 QB and potential top 10 pick acting like an idiot before we give him millions I'd cross him off. No thanks, he can do that with another team. NFL players have died playing around on jet skis, and trying to catch a football while playing with said jet ski the guy is dangerous and doesn't have the correct makeup or mindset to be a franchise QB. Great college QB but I'm not sure he has the ability, arm strength or build to make it in this league very long with his play style.
Click to expand...
I was more impressed with the pass than the fool on the jet ski catching it.
 
futurescout said:
I told a few of my buddies this back in October, but I see Derek Carr as a poor mans Aaron Rodgers. There's a few game tapes of Rodgers at Cal on youtube, and if you compare it with Carr's tape you will see a similar player. Both are very good athletes. Carr ran 4.69 only 0.01 slower than Manziel, with a 34.5 inch vertical. Both Carr and Rodgers have lightning quick releases and live arms with plus accuracy. I'm not saying Carr will be as good as Aaron Rodgers. I know that Jeff Tedford, who knows Carr extremely well, and found Rodgers out of Butte College, is seeing the same thing at #7 as Tampa's OC.. That's IF, he makes it past Cleveland and Oakland, pretty big if. Carr gets rattled under pressure, and like many big arm quarterbacks, he doesn't always transfer his weight from his front foot to back his back foot. I gave him a late 1st grade. I gave Tannehill a first round grade for a comparison. Ultimately, I think Carr ends up in the top 12-15 range during his prime years when it comes to best QBs in the NFL. I see him as a Cutler-Stafford type QB. Never elite, but if you put a good enough team around him, he can win you a super bowl.
Click to expand...

Obviously Manziel is the most polarizing prospect maybe ever in the draft, but Carr is right behind him in that polarization category in terms of grades. Some people have him as the #1 QB in the draft, while others, such as McShay, have a 4th round grade on him. I'm more inclined to lean towards McShay. Though he has quite the arm, he thrived on TERRIBLE defenses in the Mountain West/old WAC and didn't know what to do when faced with just a drop of pressure. I think that this will severely limit his potential in the NFL. I see him as more of a project than a 1st round pick.
 
Retnuhrace said:
Obviously Manziel is the most polarizing prospect maybe ever in the draft, but Carr is right behind him in that polarization category in terms of grades. Some people have him as the #1 QB in the draft, while others, such as McShay, have a 4th round grade on him. I'm more inclined to lean towards McShay. Though he has quite the arm, he thrived on TERRIBLE defenses in the Mountain West/old WAC and didn't know what to do when faced with just a drop of pressure. I think that this will severely limit his potential in the NFL. I see him as more of a project than a 1st round pick.
Click to expand...

The same Todd McShay that had Blaine Gabbert #1 QB in 2011?
 
I get that Carr played against poor MWC defenses, and played in a QB friendly system.. But he can't change the conference he was in. All he could do was dominate the competiton and he did. 68.7% completion percentage, 5082 yards and 50 TDs to 8 interceptions. Sure he was playing against MWC defenses, but he was also playing with MWC receivers and offensive line, besides Davante Adams. And literally had no running game. He's not a sure thing, but the arm talent/ athleticism is worth a gamble. You can't overstate that he has a brother who has been in the league over a decade to help him along the way.
 
I don't grade off of any highlight tape, and I've watched about 15 tapes of Carr going back to his sophomore year. But this highlight tape showcases the arm talent and athleticism..

[video=youtube;aEpRZXUGeog]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aEpRZXUGeog[/video]
 
Manziel's is gonna be a stud. The things are he did "wrong" are so petty it is silly. I know a lot of people that hate on Johny's antics would take Jameis Winston, and he hangs out in the grey area of consensual sex. Whats the bigger "redflag". I would like to hear some of his on field short-comings from these people. Also for those who say he is gonna be worse once he gets paid, the dude is already a rich kid. What more can he do that he didn't already do during his Heisman hangover?
 
I don't like the Tebow comparisons for Manziel, I think he's more RGIII with the added potential distraction red flags. The question is where would RGIII go knowing what we know now? People will probably scoff at that saying he was undraftable but he did have a great rookie season, as good as Wilson's, and he reinvigorated the Washington fan base, thats got to count for something.
 
roy_miami said:
I thought that was a really cool way to practice. You can use the machine to mimic a fast receiver such as a Mike Wallace and throw in some extra elements like wind and it seems like a great (and fun) way to hone your skills.
Click to expand...
I really I hope this isn't a serious post
 
roy_miami said:
I don't like the Tebow comparisons for Manziel, I think he's more RGIII with the added potential distraction red flags. The question is where would RGIII go knowing what we know now? People will probably scoff at that saying he was undraftable but he did have a great rookie season, as good as Wilson's, and he reinvigorated the Washington fan base, thats got to count for something.
Click to expand...

Tebow comparison is more of off field things and the media circus around the players. Manziel is rated better as a QB prospect. But he is not your idea QB size. Too risky for my taste, but teams like Jaguars probably a good investment to sell more tickets and merchandise.
 
futurescout said:
How many of those guys are Quarterbacks??????

Quarterbacks are held to a higher standard..

That's a HUGE red flag. It shows' he doesn't take his responsibilities seriously. Then add in the fact that he has the Tebow factor (on ESPN literally every single day). He's thrown out 100 opening pitches at baseball games, every basketball game I ever watch, he's sitting courtside. He was just at the Final Four and the Masters. He's everywhere but at home resting, and studying film.

The NFL is a LONG season.. 4 pre-season games, 16 regular season games, and that doesn't even count the ones that truly matter.

If it was ANY other position, it would be a very minor negative, but a negative nonetheless.

We are talking about a QUARTERBACK. The only position that will get both a Head Coach AND a GM fired. As well as the entire coaching staff, and scouting department. I know of *multiple teams* that won't risk the entire fate of their coaching and scouting staffs on him for the aforementioned reasons. I'm not gonna take that anywhere else because it's the absolute truth. The guy parties too much and is more worried about being a celebrity than a successful starting quarterback. That's a fact.

I will say this though, if not for the off the field issues, I believe he would be the best quarterback in the draft. Ultimately, his Hollywood, partying lifestyle will catch up to him and he's going to crash and burn. He will be out of the NFL by 2019. Ryan Leaf 2.0
Click to expand...

He was a sophomore in collage, cut the guy some slack. There is no argument from anyone that he takes any playing time off. Even his biggest critics say he is focused and gives 100% on the field.

Now Clowney on the other has been well documented to have a questionable work habit and is notorious for taking plays off. And I think it's kind of sad that Miami's (the U) punter lifted more than Clowney.
 
dabeastdabone said:
He was a sophomore in collage, cut the guy some slack. There is no argument from anyone that he takes any playing time off. Even his biggest critics say he is focused and gives 100% on the field.

Now Clowney on the other has been well documented to have a questionable work habit and is notorious for taking plays off. And I think it's kind of sad that Miami's (the U) punter lifted more than Clowney.
Click to expand...

It's not the work ethic anyone has flags about. We all have heard that he's a give it your all guy, but his taste for the limelight is what is scaring people off. He loves attention, he loves being the man, he loves being on camera....that's why you seem him out all the time, with celebrities, partying....it's all about having a good time. He has an ego. My opinion is that this is something that would only grow WORSE with success....that's why I'd stay away from him. The more success he finds in the NFL, the bigger his ego is gonna get.....no thanks johnny.
 
futurescout said:
I would think #19, #50, and #81.. or #19 #50 and 4th and 5th this year. Last year wasn't as expensive cause it was a really weak draft and Oakland wanted DJ Hayden no matter what.
Click to expand...

Thanks.

Damn shame. I think Mathews is going to be a stud for many years to come. Any chance he falls out of the top 10?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top Bottom