Tie-breakers (not for the faint of heart) | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Tie-breakers (not for the faint of heart)

Finole

Finole

FinHeaven VIP
Joined
May 3, 2006
Messages
2,257
Reaction score
0
There's been some chatter about what the Fins need to have happen in order to make the playoffs. Basically, we just need to win out. If Miami finishes 10-6, they would (more likely than not) make it to the postseason.

IF the Fins win out...

1. We don't have to worry about teams with 7 losses. That takes care of Pittsburgh, Buffalo, and Tennessee.

2. Because we beat them head-to-head, we would win a tie-breaker between KC or Jax, so we only need them have 6 losses. Jax will have that 6th loss if and when they lose to us this week. We need KC to drop 2 of their last 5 games. Not impossible since they have a tough schedule.

Now here is where it gets confusing:

3. We need the Jets (6-5) and Cincy (6-5) to drop 2 games or it will come down to a tie-breaker. And we need Denver (7-4) to drop 3 games or it will come down to a tie breaker.

Here's the tie-breaker scenarios for those of you who are interested...

Jets scenario - 1. If the Jets beat Buffalo (and finish 10-6), they would win the tie-breaker because their division record (4-2) would be better than the Fins (3-3).

Jets scenario - 2. If the Jets lose to Buffalo (and finish 10-6), the tie-breaker is the best record in regards to common games. If the Jets lose to Buffalo, they would be 7-5 in regards to common games. And if the Fins win out, they would be 8-4 in regards to common games. So we would win the tie-breaker.

The next tie-breaker would be Conference record but that won't come into play if we win out.

Final word on the Jets: If the Jets lose to the Bills, we only need them to go 10-6. If the Jets beat the Bills, we need them to go 9-7.


Now with non-division rivals, the tie-breakers go in reverse order for some bizarre reason. So it's Conference record first, and then common games...

Cincy scenario - All of Cincy's remaining opponents are in the AFC. So if they finish 10-6, we would lose the tie-breaker because their Conference record would be 8-4, and our Conference record would be 7-5.

Final word on Cincy: We need them to go 9-7.


Denver scenario - Denver's Conference record is currently 7-3. If Denver goes 10-6, their Conference record would be at least 8-4, and our Conference record would be 7-5. So we would lose the tie-breaker.

Final word on Denver: We need them to go 9-7.


Also, keep in mind, there are TWO Wild Card spots. So, we only need help from 3 of the 4 other teams in contention.

Hope that clears it up for everybody. :lol:


EDIT: Actually, Denver plays 3 NFC opponents (Seattle, AZ, and SF) and 2 AFC opponents (SD and Cincy). I'm old school. Seattle used to be in the AFC, but I had a brain fart and forgot they've been in the NFC since the re-alignment. So... The Broncos could finish with a 7-5 Conference record. That would take them to the 3rd tie-breaker: common games. Denver and Miami are both 3-2 against common opponents.

This brings us to the 4th tie-breaker: strength of victory. Not sure what is meant by "strength of victory" but Denver has 195 PF and 165 PA. The Fins have 197 PF and 198 PA.
 
Great job with the research man! I added this thread to my favorites for quick reference. :D


:dolphins: :dolphins: :dolphins: :dolphins:
 
Finole said:
There's been some chatter about what the Fins need to have happen in order to make the playoffs. Basically, we just need to win out. If Miami finishes 10-6, they would (more likely than not) make it to the postseason.

IF the Fins win out...
...

Denver scenario - Denver's Conference record is currently 7-3. If Denver goes 10-6, their Conference record would be at least 8-4, and our Conference record would be 7-5. So we would lose the tie-breaker.

Final word on Denver: We need them to go 9-7.


Also, keep in mind, there are TWO Wild Card spots. So, we only need help from 3 of the 4 other teams in contention.

Hope that clears it up for everybody. :lol:
Click to expand...

We'd be OK with Denver at 10-6 if KC beats Oakland and is also 10-6.

KC would eliminate Denver due to a better divisional record and we would eliminate KC by head-to-head.
 
Finole said:
There's been some chatter about what the Fins need to have happen in order to make the playoffs. Basically, we just need to win out. If Miami finishes 10-6, they would (more likely than not) make it to the postseason.

IF the Fins win out...

1. We don't have to worry about teams with 7 losses. That takes care of Pittsburgh, Buffalo, and Tennessee.

2. Because we beat them head-to-head, we would win a tie-breaker between KC or Jax, so we only need them have 6 losses. Jax will have that 6th loss if and when they lose to us this week. We need KC to drop 2 of their last 5 games. Not impossible since they have a tough schedule.

Now here is where it gets confusing:

3. We need the Jets (6-5) and Cincy (6-5) to drop 2 games or it will come down to a tie-breaker. And we need Denver (7-4) to drop 3 games or it will come down to a tie breaker.

Here's the tie-breaker scenarios for those of you who are interested...

Jets scenario - 1. If the Jets beat Buffalo (and finish 10-6), they would win the tie-breaker because their division record (4-2) would be better than the Fins (3-3).

Jets scenario - 2. If the Jets lose to Buffalo (and finish 10-6), the tie-breaker is the best record in regards to common games. If the Jets lose to Buffalo, they would be 7-5 in regards to common games. And if the Fins win out, they would be 8-4 in regards to common games. So we would win the tie-breaker.

The next tie-breaker would be Conference record but that won't come into play if we win out.

Final word on the Jets: If the Jets lose to the Bills, we only need them to go 10-6. If the Jets beat the Bills, we need them to go 9-7.


Now with non-division rivals, the tie-breakers go in reverse order for some bizarre reason. So it's Conference record first, and then common games...

Cincy scenario - All of Cincy's remaining opponents are in the AFC. So if they finish 10-6, we would lose the tie-breaker because their Conference record would be 8-4, and our Conference record would be 7-5.

Final word on Cincy: We need them to go 9-7.


Denver scenario - Denver's Conference record is currently 7-3. If Denver goes 10-6, their Conference record would be at least 8-4, and our Conference record would be 7-5. So we would lose the tie-breaker.

Final word on Denver: We need them to go 9-7.


Also, keep in mind, there are TWO Wild Card spots. So, we only need help from 3 of the 4 other teams in contention.

Hope that clears it up for everybody. :lol:
Click to expand...

Nice work man, had been looking this stuff up but it's time consuming.
 
what most of you don't understand is this:

KC owns a tie breaker over Cincinnati and Denver, we own a tiebreaker over KC so we all end up at 10-6 we get the top wild card seed
 
nick1 said:
what most of you don't understand is this:

KC owns a tie breaker over Cincinnati and Denver, we own a tiebreaker over KC so we all end up at 10-6 we get the top wild card seed
Click to expand...

Not quite:
http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakers

Three or More Clubs
(Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of applicable two-club format.)
1. Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tie breaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two Wild-Card participants.
2. Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.)
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
5. Strength of victory.
6. Strength of schedule.
7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
9. Best net points in conference games.
10. Best net points in all games.
11. Best net touchdowns in all games.
12. Coin toss
Click to expand...
 
How does KC own the tiebreaker over Cincy? Cincy beat KC in week 1 and right now owns a better AFC conference record, 4-3 vs. 3-4.
 
Finole said:
There's been some chatter about what the Fins need to have happen in order to make the playoffs. Basically, we just need to win out. If Miami finishes 10-6, they would (more likely than not) make it to the postseason.

IF the Fins win out...

1. We don't have to worry about teams with 7 losses. That takes care of Pittsburgh, Buffalo, and Tennessee.

2. Because we beat them head-to-head, we would win a tie-breaker between KC or Jax, so we only need them have 6 losses. Jax will have that 6th loss if and when they lose to us this week. We need KC to drop 2 of their last 5 games. Not impossible since they have a tough schedule.

Now here is where it gets confusing:

3. We need the Jets (6-5) and Cincy (6-5) to drop 2 games or it will come down to a tie-breaker. And we need Denver (7-4) to drop 3 games or it will come down to a tie breaker.

Here's the tie-breaker scenarios for those of you who are interested...

Jets scenario - 1. If the Jets beat Buffalo (and finish 10-6), they would win the tie-breaker because their division record (4-2) would be better than the Fins (3-3).

Jets scenario - 2. If the Jets lose to Buffalo (and finish 10-6), the tie-breaker is the best record in regards to common games. If the Jets lose to Buffalo, they would be 7-5 in regards to common games. And if the Fins win out, they would be 8-4 in regards to common games. So we would win the tie-breaker.

The next tie-breaker would be Conference record but that won't come into play if we win out.

Final word on the Jets: If the Jets lose to the Bills, we only need them to go 10-6. If the Jets beat the Bills, we need them to go 9-7.


Now with non-division rivals, the tie-breakers go in reverse order for some bizarre reason. So it's Conference record first, and then common games...

Cincy scenario - All of Cincy's remaining opponents are in the AFC. So if they finish 10-6, we would lose the tie-breaker because their Conference record would be 8-4, and our Conference record would be 7-5.

Final word on Cincy: We need them to go 9-7.


Denver scenario - Denver's Conference record is currently 7-3. If Denver goes 10-6, their Conference record would be at least 8-4, and our Conference record would be 7-5. So we would lose the tie-breaker.

Final word on Denver: We need them to go 9-7.


Also, keep in mind, there are TWO Wild Card spots. So, we only need help from 3 of the 4 other teams in contention.

Hope that clears it up for everybody. :lol:
Click to expand...

Actually this the most lucid explanation I've read. Great work!! Thanks for the effort.

:dolphins:
 
Calvin Clean said:
How does KC own the tiebreaker over Cincy? Cincy beat KC in week 1 and right now owns a better AFC conference record, 4-3 vs. 3-4.
Click to expand...
my mistake, the Bengals do need to lose two more games but they will, they have a hard schedule
 
hof13 said:
We'd be OK with Denver at 10-6 if KC beats Oakland and is also 10-6.

KC would eliminate Denver due to a better divisional record and we would eliminate KC by head-to-head.
Click to expand...
This divisional record assumes San Diego beats Denver and K.C. If Denver beats San Diego and KC doesn't, then the tiebreaker is undecided. The next step is based on winning percentage on common games. Denver's last five games are common to KC.

Bottom Line: It is too early to speculate on tiebreakers. Too many variables.
 
wow really good research, all this time i thought the jets would have to lose TWO games, when in fact they could lose just ONE - if that game happens to be buffalo.. because we would both have 3-3 division records, so it then turns to common games, and we beat them in common games... but lets go packers this week anyways
 
nick1 said:
my mistake, the Bengals do need to lose two more games but they will, they have a hard schedule
Click to expand...
No problem. I am trying to understand the tiebreaker rules along with everyone else. I also believe the bengals will lose two more games.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top Bottom