TMQ disses (kinda) Kiper... | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

TMQ disses (kinda) Kiper...

MaxPower

MaxPower

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This guy is pretty funny, & I try to read him throughout the season. Always good insights on goofy trends. Read this week's columnhere



But does Kiper actually do any better than the millions of amateur draftniks? Well, let's just say that track record is a subject all forecasters prefer not to discuss. Kiper issued at least four projections of the 2004 first round with different players going to different teams in different places -- increasing the odds that at least one would be a correct guess. Kiper had Ben Roethlisberger going to Arizona with the third choice, to the Steelers with the 11th choice, to the Giants with the fourth choice; when Roethlisberger did in fact go to the Steelers with the 11th choice, Kiper could say he predicted it. Mel had Michael Clayton going to the Panthers with the 31st pick, to the Dolphins with the 20th pick, to the Chiefs with the 30th pick and to the Bucs with the 15th pick; when Clayton did in fact go to the Bucs with the 15th pick, Kiper could say he predicted it.

During the draft broadcast, ESPN announcers made a big deal about the fact that Kiper's projections had San Diego taking placekicker Nate Kaeding of Iowa at the top of the third round, which is exactly what happened. But Kaeding was the only pick Kiper projected correctly in the third round. (Kiper's third-round projection had Denver taking Tatum Bell of Oklahoma State and Kansas City taking Junior Siavii of Oregon; both teams did take these players, but in the second round.) One of 33 right doesn't exactly seem like the sort of thing a person should boast about on national television.

Other Kiper projections were finessed. When Jersey/A began the fourth round by choosing Reggie Torbor of Auburn, Kiper opined on the air, "It's not a surprise that Torbor went where he did." Surely it was a surprise to Kiper, whose own projection had this gentleman going in the sixth round.

If draft prognostication success is matching team, round and player -- regardless of what slot in the round, since trades always scramble everything -- Kiper correctly forecast seven of the 32 picks in the first round, one of the 31 picks in the second round and one of the 33 picks in the third round. Overall that's nine of 96 correct, or about 9 percent accuracy. But seven of Kiper's nine correct calls came in the draft's first 15 picks. As TMQ noted last week, a one-day weather forecast is much more likely to be correct than a four-day forecast: The farther out a projection goes, the greater the "cascade effect" of small changes early leading to big changes later.

The early picks in Round 1 of the NFL draft are like forecasting today's weather, much easier to predict than what happens later on. From the middle of Round 1 until the first day concluded at the end of Round 3, Kiper was right only twice of 81 tries, or 2 percent accuracy. That doesn't sound much different from random chance.
Click to expand...
 
Mock drafts

That's why they're called mock drafts... because they're there to be mocked afterwards. (Besides, he's probably about as accurate as the "top psychics" covered by certain weekly papers. But then again, their jobs aren't to predict things accurately, it's to sell papers.)
 
:goof: The guy puts in a lot of hours studying players and sinarios but in the end it's all a crap shoot.
 
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