To Defer or Not to Defer? | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

To Defer or Not to Defer?

Dolph N.Fan

Dolph N.Fan

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Since this always seems to be debated:


Dolphins opponents opening drives:

VS NE: 8 PLAYS, 53 YARDS, 5:08- DRIVE ENDED IN INT

*@ BAL: 18 PLAYS, 74 YARDS, 10:52- TURNOVER ON DOWNS

VS BUF: 10 PLAYS, 76 YARDS, 5:57- TOUCHDOWN

*@ CIN: 9 PLAYS, 75 YARDS, 4:41- TOUCHDOWN

*@ NYJ: 4 PLAYS, 19 YARDS, 2:12- PUNT

VS MIN: 3 PLAYS, 8 YARDS, 1:30- PUNT

VS PIT: 3 PLAYS, 7 YARDS, 1:14- PUNT

*@ DET: 5 PLAYS, 75 YARDS, 2:01- TOUCHDOWN

*@ CHI: 8 PLAYS, 61 YARDS, 3:57- FIELD GOAL

*MIAMI DEFERRED TO 2ND HALF.

Opponents average 7.5 plays, 49.7 yards, 4:10 minutes, 2.66 pts on their opening offensive possession vs Miami.

So the first time the Miami offense comes on the field, they were already trailing 5 times.

The PIT game is the only game so far where Miami had the ball first.



Dolphins Drives to Open the 2nd half:

VS NE 3 PLAYS, 8 YARDS, 1:55-PUNT (MIA LEAD 17-0 BEFORE DRIVE)

@ BAL 12 PLAYS, 75 YARDS, 7:08 TOUCHDOWN (MIA TRAILED 28-7 BEFORE DRIVE)

VS BUF 4 PLAYS, 21 YARDS, 1:58 PUNT (GAME TIED 14-14 BEFORE DRIVE)

@ CIN 3 PLAYS, -5 YARDS, 1:30 PUNT (MIA TRAILED 14-12 BEFORE DRIVE)

@NYJ 11 PLAYS, 47 YARDS, 6:20 FIELD GOAL (MIA TRAILED 19-14 BEFORE DRIVE)

VS MIN 4 PLAYS, 9 YARDS, 1:37 TURNOVER ON DOWNS (MIA TRAILED 10-3 BEFORE DRIVE)

VS PIT (PIT OPENED 2ND HALF ON OFFENSE)

@ DET 9 PLAYS, 75 YARDS, 5:49 TOUCHDOWN (MIA TRAILED 27-17 BEFORE DRIVE)

@ CHI 4 PLAYS, 75 YARDS. 2:13 TOUCHDOWN (MIA LEAD 21-17 BEFORE DRIVE)

Miami averages 6.25 plays, 38.12 yards, 3:33 minutes, 3 pts on their drives when they start the 2nd half on offense first


Here are the net differences each time:

vs NE: 0 (NE Didn't score on their opening drive, MIA didn't score on their opening 2nd half drive)
@ BAL: +7
VS BUF: -7
@ CIN:-7
@ NYJ:+3
VS MIN:-0
@ DET:0
@ CHI:+4

So defer or not to defer, which is more beneficial to miami?
 
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I normally like deferring and kicking off but that was before we had a high octane offense. So now, especially at home I could see wanting the rock first.
 
I always prefer we defer, as it feels good knowing you get the ball first in the 2nd half, and can potentially double down at the end of H1. IF, big if, you stop their opening drive, it feels like an immediate advantage, almost like a home team in MLB when they stop the visitors in the top of the inning during extra innings. I always say we have 6 outs left, they only have 3. That said, I'm OCD and also break **** and scare dogs during fins games.
 
Dolphindrew said:
I always prefer we defer, as it feels good knowing you get the ball first in the 2nd half, and can potentially double down at the end of H1. IF, big if, you stop their opening drive, it feels like an immediate advantage, almost like a home team in MLB when they stop the visitors in the top of the inning during extra innings. I always say we have 6 outs left, they only have 3. That said, I'm OCD and also break **** and scare dogs during fins games.
Click to expand...
Need more opening stops, and more 2nd half tds to open the half. Get a few more of those Miami could start to win more comfortably.
 
Defer is the sensible choice 9 times out of 10...

But there is a 10th time.

And that 10th time usually occurs when you have a high powered offense and want to set the table.

This might be that 10th time.
 
Deferring is the superior strategy. You canā€™t start making bad choices because you donā€™t trust your team.
 
Dolph N.Fan said:
Since this always seems to be debated:


Dolphins opponents opening drives:

VS NE: 8 PLAYS, 53 YARDS, 5:08- DRIVE ENDED IN INT

*@ BAL: 18 PLAYS, 74 YARDS, 10:52- TURNOVER ON DOWNS

VS BUF: 10 PLAYS, 76 YARDS, 5:57- TOUCHDOWN

*@ CIN: 9 PLAYS, 75 YARDS, 4:41- TOUCHDOWN

*@ NYJ: 4 PLAYS, 19 YARDS, 2:12- PUNT

VS MIN: 3 PLAYS, 8 YARDS, 1:30- PUNT

VS PIT: 3 PLAYS, 7 YARDS, 1:14- PUNT

*@ DET: 5 PLAYS, 75 YARDS, 2:01- TOUCHDOWN

*@ CHI: 8 PLAYS, 61 YARDS, 3:57- FIELD GOAL

*MIAMI DEFERRED TO 2ND HALF.

Opponents average 7.5 plays, 49.7 yards, 4:10 minutes, 2.66 pts on their opening offensive possession vs Miami.

So the first time the Miami offense comes on the field, they were already trailing 5 times.

The PIT game is the only game so far where Miami had the ball first.



Dolphins Drives to Open the 2nd half:

VS NE 3 PLAYS, 8 YARDS, 1:55-PUNT (MIA LEAD 17-0 BEFORE DRIVE)

@ BAL 12 PLAYS, 75 YARDS, 7:08 TOUCHDOWN (MIA TRAILED 28-7 BEFORE DRIVE)

VS BUF 4 PLAYS, 21 YARDS, 1:58 PUNT (GAME TIED 14-14 BEFORE DRIVE)

@ CIN 3 PLAYS, -5 YARDS, 1:30 PUNT (MIA TRAILED 14-12 BEFORE DRIVE)

@NYJ 11 PLAYS, 47 YARDS, 6:20 FIELD GOAL (MIA TRAILED 19-14 BEFORE DRIVE)

VS MIN 4 PLAYS, 9 YARDS, 1:37 TURNOVER ON DOWNS (MIA TRAILED 10-3 BEFORE DRIVE)

VS PIT (PIT OPENED 2ND HALF ON OFFENSE)

@ DET 9 PLAYS, 75 YARDS, 5:49 TOUCHDOWN (MIA TRAILED 27-17 BEFORE DRIVE)

@ CHI 4 PLAYS, 75 YARDS. 2:13 TOUCHDOWN (MIA LEAD 21-17 BEFORE DRIVE)

Miami averages 6.25 plays, 38.12 yards, 3:33 minutes, 3 pts on their drives when they start the 2nd half on offense first


Here are the net differences each time:

vs NE: 0 (NE Didn't score on their opening drive, MIA didn't score on their opening 2nd half drive)
@ BAL: +7
VS BUF: -7
@ CIN:-7
@ NYJ:+3
VS MIN:-0
@ DET:0
@ CHI:+4

So defer or not to defer, which is more beneficial to miami?
Click to expand...
Didnā€™t Baltimore (Duvernay) return the opening 1st half kickoff for a 103-yard TD?
 
Dolph N.Fan said:
Since this always seems to be debated:


Dolphins opponents opening drives:

VS NE: 8 PLAYS, 53 YARDS, 5:08- DRIVE ENDED IN INT

*@ BAL: 18 PLAYS, 74 YARDS, 10:52- TURNOVER ON DOWNS

VS BUF: 10 PLAYS, 76 YARDS, 5:57- TOUCHDOWN

*@ CIN: 9 PLAYS, 75 YARDS, 4:41- TOUCHDOWN

*@ NYJ: 4 PLAYS, 19 YARDS, 2:12- PUNT

VS MIN: 3 PLAYS, 8 YARDS, 1:30- PUNT

VS PIT: 3 PLAYS, 7 YARDS, 1:14- PUNT

*@ DET: 5 PLAYS, 75 YARDS, 2:01- TOUCHDOWN

*@ CHI: 8 PLAYS, 61 YARDS, 3:57- FIELD GOAL

*MIAMI DEFERRED TO 2ND HALF.

Opponents average 7.5 plays, 49.7 yards, 4:10 minutes, 2.66 pts on their opening offensive possession vs Miami.

So the first time the Miami offense comes on the field, they were already trailing 5 times.

The PIT game is the only game so far where Miami had the ball first.



Dolphins Drives to Open the 2nd half:

VS NE 3 PLAYS, 8 YARDS, 1:55-PUNT (MIA LEAD 17-0 BEFORE DRIVE)

@ BAL 12 PLAYS, 75 YARDS, 7:08 TOUCHDOWN (MIA TRAILED 28-7 BEFORE DRIVE)

VS BUF 4 PLAYS, 21 YARDS, 1:58 PUNT (GAME TIED 14-14 BEFORE DRIVE)

@ CIN 3 PLAYS, -5 YARDS, 1:30 PUNT (MIA TRAILED 14-12 BEFORE DRIVE)

@NYJ 11 PLAYS, 47 YARDS, 6:20 FIELD GOAL (MIA TRAILED 19-14 BEFORE DRIVE)

VS MIN 4 PLAYS, 9 YARDS, 1:37 TURNOVER ON DOWNS (MIA TRAILED 10-3 BEFORE DRIVE)

VS PIT (PIT OPENED 2ND HALF ON OFFENSE)

@ DET 9 PLAYS, 75 YARDS, 5:49 TOUCHDOWN (MIA TRAILED 27-17 BEFORE DRIVE)

@ CHI 4 PLAYS, 75 YARDS. 2:13 TOUCHDOWN (MIA LEAD 21-17 BEFORE DRIVE)

Miami averages 6.25 plays, 38.12 yards, 3:33 minutes, 3 pts on their drives when they start the 2nd half on offense first


Here are the net differences each time:

vs NE: 0 (NE Didn't score on their opening drive, MIA didn't score on their opening 2nd half drive)
@ BAL: +7
VS BUF: -7
@ CIN:-7
@ NYJ:+3
VS MIN:-0
@ DET:0
@ CHI:+4

So defer or not to defer, which is more beneficial to miami?
Click to expand...

Nice analysis. One variable not mentioned . . . everyone here has heard talking heads talk about team 'A' when they have the ball in the final 2 min of 1H. 'If they can score here, they'll have momentum coming out in 2H.' If this is true, a significant part of the analysis should include the 1st drive of 2H when the team with the ball at the end of 1H scores or not.
TBF, no one can know that at coin flip, but if, say, Chi has a bad hx in the last 2 min of 1H, I may take the ball in 1H
 
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