I know there have been some discussions on here about following the Bellichek mode (defer) of starting the game on defense and trying to gain an extra possession at the half time break. It seems that our new coach takes the same approach as we seemed to always defer when we do win the toss. I even saw someone claiming we lost to Steelers when we deferred the opening possession last week. I thought I would compile some situational stats on how effective the strategy was for the Dolphins the past season.
In the 17 games the Dolphins played in they started on Defense 14 of the 17 games including the last 6 to end the season. In those 14 first possessions on defense they surrendered 5 TD's and 2 FG's. There were 2 times where we allowed a FG on opening drive but then countered with a TD to take the lead. So in 7 of those 14 games we started out behind on the scoreboard before the offense even took the field. Twice we regained it. In the other 7 games where we held on the first possession we only scored one time. So of the 14 times we started on defense we were behind after each team had a possession 5 times and ahead 3 times and scoreless on the other 6. From this standpoint the strategy looks good (only slight disadvantage and getting the ball to start the 2nd half) It should also be noted that when we started on defense we were 7-7 and when we started on offense we were 3-0 although I'm not sure the sample size is enough to use for anything.
Now when we look at the end of the half this is where the Dolphins did not take advantage of the strategy. Miami had the ball to end the half 10 of the 17 games. Only twice did they score (1TD, 1 FG). I know we were much better with half ending drives in the past but for some reason this season something always happened to foil the scoring chance to end the half. By comparison when the other team had the ball to end the half they scored 5 (4 FG's, 1 TD) times out of 7.
The final part of the analysis is what happens to start the 3rd quarter. When we started with the ball we did score 4 TD's but turned the ball over and punted the other 10 times. Not a high ratio for coming out off the locker room and taking control of the game.
When you factor all 3 of these situational results it doesn't look like the plan is benefiting us. We start out behind. We rarely score to end the half and we occasional score to start the 3rd. And coming down the stretch we gave up 4 TD's to start those last 6 games on D.
Another thing I noticed is it is very important to have an offense that knows how to utilize the last minute of the half. We had a couple games where we could have held the ball to end the half but made mistakes that forced us to give the other team the last possession. If you are going to use this plan going forward we must take better advantage of that last possession of 2nd quarter.
Thoughts?
Which do you like?
In the 17 games the Dolphins played in they started on Defense 14 of the 17 games including the last 6 to end the season. In those 14 first possessions on defense they surrendered 5 TD's and 2 FG's. There were 2 times where we allowed a FG on opening drive but then countered with a TD to take the lead. So in 7 of those 14 games we started out behind on the scoreboard before the offense even took the field. Twice we regained it. In the other 7 games where we held on the first possession we only scored one time. So of the 14 times we started on defense we were behind after each team had a possession 5 times and ahead 3 times and scoreless on the other 6. From this standpoint the strategy looks good (only slight disadvantage and getting the ball to start the 2nd half) It should also be noted that when we started on defense we were 7-7 and when we started on offense we were 3-0 although I'm not sure the sample size is enough to use for anything.
Now when we look at the end of the half this is where the Dolphins did not take advantage of the strategy. Miami had the ball to end the half 10 of the 17 games. Only twice did they score (1TD, 1 FG). I know we were much better with half ending drives in the past but for some reason this season something always happened to foil the scoring chance to end the half. By comparison when the other team had the ball to end the half they scored 5 (4 FG's, 1 TD) times out of 7.
The final part of the analysis is what happens to start the 3rd quarter. When we started with the ball we did score 4 TD's but turned the ball over and punted the other 10 times. Not a high ratio for coming out off the locker room and taking control of the game.
When you factor all 3 of these situational results it doesn't look like the plan is benefiting us. We start out behind. We rarely score to end the half and we occasional score to start the 3rd. And coming down the stretch we gave up 4 TD's to start those last 6 games on D.
Another thing I noticed is it is very important to have an offense that knows how to utilize the last minute of the half. We had a couple games where we could have held the ball to end the half but made mistakes that forced us to give the other team the last possession. If you are going to use this plan going forward we must take better advantage of that last possession of 2nd quarter.
Thoughts?
Which do you like?
