...at least a variance of +6 points per game during the regular season, and maintain it into the Post Season. Of course if our variance was higher, that wouuld significantly improve our chances.
Why did I pick a +6?
Well I took the variance stat of the teams that made the Post Season the last 4 years, and correlated those stats to the team that has made it 3 times to the SB in the last 8 years. That team is the New England Patriots (96, 01, 03), which has averaged a +6 variance in those 3 individual seasons…
Seven of the last eight SB teams, the last 4 years, had at least, met this criteria. Carolina being the only team to make it at a +1 variance, but put up a nice +8 variance in this past Post Season. The majority of teams, that did not meet this criteria, did not make it past the regular season or deep into the post season...
The last 8 SB teams, during the regular season, had scored 24 ppg and allowed 16 ppg (+8 point variance) on average. :)
If those #s look familiar, the Fins scored an avg 24 ppg in 02’, and allowed 16 ppg just this past year. To bad we could not have had both stats in the same year, last year, or the one before, we would have had much better Off-seasons.
So let’s go ahead and review the stats:
Of the (16) teams in the Wildcard games, (4) had +3, (3) had +5, (2) had +2, (2) had +6, (2) had +8 = Theory, at least a team with a +3 variance, is the common one to make the WC…
Of the (16) teams in the Divisional games, (4) had +7, (2) had +1, (2) had +2, (2) had +5, (2) had +6, (2) had +9 = Theory, at least a team with a +7 variance, is the common one to make the Division…
Of the (8) teams in the Conference games, (2) had +11, the rest were +2, +3, +5, +7, +8, +9 = Theory, at least a team with a +11 variance, is the common one in the Conference…
Of the (8) teams in the Super Bowl games, there was no common (repeatable) variance. Those that made it were, +1, +5, +6, +7, +9, +10, +11, +14…
Theory, 6 out of the 8 had at least a +6 variance, so I chose this as my common variance in correlation with NE last 3 SB appearances.
So where were we in the last 4 years?
In 2000 we had a +6 made it to a Divisional game...
In 01 we had a +4, going to a Wildcard game...
In 02 we had a +5, and missed the PS...
In 03 we had a +3, and missed the PS...
A great OL and running game in 00' and 02' gave us a nice variance; we lost that with the play of the OL in 03'. With the upgraded OL, RW, the WR threat that we hope to put on the field, and an improved secondary, I expect to see our variance improve this coming season...
I collected these stats to assist my variance theory (+6), IMO, at least it substantiated my theory, on our lack of Post Season successes.
So where were we before the 2000?
In 99 we were even and made it to a Divisional game against Jax :cry: ...
In 98 we had a +3, made it to a Divisional game...
In 97 we had a +1, made it to a Wildcard game...
In 95 we had a +4, made it to a Wildcard game...
In 94 we had a +4, made it to a Wildcard game...
In 92 we had a +3, made it to the AFC Conference...
In 85 we had a +6, made it to the AFC Conference...
In 83 we had a +9, made it to a Divisional game...
Our Super Bowl variance stats
In 84 we had a +13, made it to the SB...
In 73 we had a +13, won the SB...
In 72 we had a +15, won the SB...
In 71 we had a +10, made it to the SB...
The team behind Dan, made it 9 out of the 17 seasons, a little over 50%. Those offenses were assembled for passing attack, not rushing, until JJ came into the team in 96' and started to change its attack to the run mode. You can see how the change affected the variance from 97' to 99'.
IMO, you need to maintain a passing-rushing balance, too much of one or the other and opponents can plan properly to defend it (NE-STL; Tampa-Oak). For this to happen, it all starts with decent OL, to give some running room to the RB and some time to throw to the WRs. I know, old news...
Well, if you read this far down, you must be torturing yourself, but I enjoyed this little research and I hope it can substantiate my theory…
Bottom line, IMHO, is that all of the teams in the SB, have played great defense and good offense during that entire season. We have not been able to execute like that since 1973. I want change… :yell:
Why did I pick a +6?
Well I took the variance stat of the teams that made the Post Season the last 4 years, and correlated those stats to the team that has made it 3 times to the SB in the last 8 years. That team is the New England Patriots (96, 01, 03), which has averaged a +6 variance in those 3 individual seasons…
Seven of the last eight SB teams, the last 4 years, had at least, met this criteria. Carolina being the only team to make it at a +1 variance, but put up a nice +8 variance in this past Post Season. The majority of teams, that did not meet this criteria, did not make it past the regular season or deep into the post season...
The last 8 SB teams, during the regular season, had scored 24 ppg and allowed 16 ppg (+8 point variance) on average. :)
If those #s look familiar, the Fins scored an avg 24 ppg in 02’, and allowed 16 ppg just this past year. To bad we could not have had both stats in the same year, last year, or the one before, we would have had much better Off-seasons.
So let’s go ahead and review the stats:
Of the (16) teams in the Wildcard games, (4) had +3, (3) had +5, (2) had +2, (2) had +6, (2) had +8 = Theory, at least a team with a +3 variance, is the common one to make the WC…
Of the (16) teams in the Divisional games, (4) had +7, (2) had +1, (2) had +2, (2) had +5, (2) had +6, (2) had +9 = Theory, at least a team with a +7 variance, is the common one to make the Division…
Of the (8) teams in the Conference games, (2) had +11, the rest were +2, +3, +5, +7, +8, +9 = Theory, at least a team with a +11 variance, is the common one in the Conference…
Of the (8) teams in the Super Bowl games, there was no common (repeatable) variance. Those that made it were, +1, +5, +6, +7, +9, +10, +11, +14…
Theory, 6 out of the 8 had at least a +6 variance, so I chose this as my common variance in correlation with NE last 3 SB appearances.
So where were we in the last 4 years?
In 2000 we had a +6 made it to a Divisional game...
In 01 we had a +4, going to a Wildcard game...
In 02 we had a +5, and missed the PS...
In 03 we had a +3, and missed the PS...
A great OL and running game in 00' and 02' gave us a nice variance; we lost that with the play of the OL in 03'. With the upgraded OL, RW, the WR threat that we hope to put on the field, and an improved secondary, I expect to see our variance improve this coming season...
I collected these stats to assist my variance theory (+6), IMO, at least it substantiated my theory, on our lack of Post Season successes.
So where were we before the 2000?
In 99 we were even and made it to a Divisional game against Jax :cry: ...
In 98 we had a +3, made it to a Divisional game...
In 97 we had a +1, made it to a Wildcard game...
In 95 we had a +4, made it to a Wildcard game...
In 94 we had a +4, made it to a Wildcard game...
In 92 we had a +3, made it to the AFC Conference...
In 85 we had a +6, made it to the AFC Conference...
In 83 we had a +9, made it to a Divisional game...
Our Super Bowl variance stats
In 84 we had a +13, made it to the SB...
In 73 we had a +13, won the SB...
In 72 we had a +15, won the SB...
In 71 we had a +10, made it to the SB...
The team behind Dan, made it 9 out of the 17 seasons, a little over 50%. Those offenses were assembled for passing attack, not rushing, until JJ came into the team in 96' and started to change its attack to the run mode. You can see how the change affected the variance from 97' to 99'.
IMO, you need to maintain a passing-rushing balance, too much of one or the other and opponents can plan properly to defend it (NE-STL; Tampa-Oak). For this to happen, it all starts with decent OL, to give some running room to the RB and some time to throw to the WRs. I know, old news...
Well, if you read this far down, you must be torturing yourself, but I enjoyed this little research and I hope it can substantiate my theory…
Bottom line, IMHO, is that all of the teams in the SB, have played great defense and good offense during that entire season. We have not been able to execute like that since 1973. I want change… :yell:
