His'nBeatYour'n
Would I be a Parcells guy?
The 2005 Miami Dolphins defense under Nick Saban has seen quite a turnaround from its 2004 performance. In 2004, the Dolphins ranked 31st in run defense (143.9 yards per game allowed), 31st in run attempts (33.7 per game) and 20th in rushing yards per attempt (4.3). The Saban-led Dolphins defense has been able to reduce those numbers dramatically. Miami ranks third in rushing yards allowed per game (76.3 yards), first in rushing yards per attempt (2.9 yards) and 14th in rushing attempts per game (26.7).
These improved run numbers have come at a cost to the Dolphins' pass defense. The Dolphins do rank second in the league with a 53.1 completion percentage against, but they rank 19th in yards per game and 30th in pass attempts per game.
These pass numbers beg two questions. First, has Sam Madison, one of the best man coverage cornerbacks in football, been able to adjust to Saban's primarily zone coverage schemes? Second, how much did the loss of Patrick Surtain affect Miami? The answers to those questions show that the Dolphins did have a problem that Saban has been able to solve.
The two most relevant cornerback statistics are completion percentage and yards per attempt. In 2004, Madison allowed a 50.7 percent completion rate and 6.4 yards per attempt, both of which ranked him in top 15 in the league in these categories, according to Scientific Football 2005. How is Madison doing in 2005? Here are his numbers through three games:
Game Atts. Comps. Comp. percentage Yds. Yds. att. TDs INTs Penalty yds.
vs. Broncos 5 1 20 10 2.0 0 0 0
at Jets 6 3 50 37 6.2 0 0 0
vs. Panthers 3 3 100 74 24.7 1 0 0
Totals 14 7 50 121 8.6 1 0 0
Madison's yards per attempt number is somewhat skewed due to Steve Smith's 53-yard TD on a 14-yard slant route on which Travares Tillman, a Dolphins safety, took a terrible angle when closing in for the tackle on Smith. Tillman not only missed the tackle but he also knocked Madison away from further pursuing Smith. This allowed Smith to get 39 yards after the catch for the TD. If you take out the 39 run-after-catch yards from this play and recalculate Madison's numbers, you find he is allowing only 5.9 yards per attempt. That number indicates that Madison is making the adjustment to this defense quite well through three games.
The loss of Surtain was seen as a big blow, but Surtain's 2004 numbers were actually not that good. Surtain allowed a 59 completion percentage and 8.6 yards per attempt in 2004, numbers that ranked him 55th and 65th in those respective categories, so his replacement wouldn't have far to go to replace Surtain's 2004 performance.
Miami replaced Surtain during its first two games with Reggie Howard. However, Howard's numbers were actually worse than Surtain's. Howard's 2005 chart:
Game Atts. Comps. Comp. percentage Yds. Yds. att. TDs INTs Penalty yds.
vs. Broncos 5 2 40 22 4.4 0 0 0
at Jets 8 6 75 112 14.0 0 0 0
vs. Panthers 6 4 66.7 67 11.2 1 0 27
Totals 19 12 63.2 201 10.6 1 0 27
The 63.2 completion percentage is bad, but the 10.6 yards per attempt is abysmal. Anything over 8 yards will put you in poor company and anything over 10 will put you on the bench or on the street. That number doesn't even take into account the 27 penalty yards against him. And if that wasn't bad enough, four of the six other incompletions against Howard could have been completed for at least 78 yards if not for inaccurate or dropped passes. It isn't a stretch to say Howard really wasn't stopping anything thrown his way.
The good news for the Dolphins is that they replaced Howard with Travis Daniels, a rookie fourth-round pick that Saban brought in from LSU. Daniels had his first start in Week 3 versus Carolina and had a very good showing. Here are Daniels' season-long numbers (he was a nickel back in Weeks 1 and 2):
Game Atts. Comps. Comp. percentage Yds. Yds. att. TDs INTs Penalty yds.
vs. Broncos 8 3 37.5 45 5.6 0 0 0
at Jets 3 2 66.7 10 3.3 1 0 0
vs. Panthers 8 2 25 24 3.0 0 0 16
Totals 19 7 36.8 79 4.2 1 0 16
Three of the incompletions in the Carolina game could have been completed if not for inaccurate passes, but my metrics show that those three passes would have netted only 20 yards at the point of incompletion. If you factor those 20 yards in, Daniels still would have allowed only 44 yards on eight passes, or only 5.5 yards per attempt in his first NFL start. Those are very good numbers and are probably better than Daniels will put up for the entire season, but the Dolphins only need Daniels to perform near this level for him to remain a very solid starter. This is just another instance of Saban's LSU connections paying off handsomely in Miami.
These improved run numbers have come at a cost to the Dolphins' pass defense. The Dolphins do rank second in the league with a 53.1 completion percentage against, but they rank 19th in yards per game and 30th in pass attempts per game.
These pass numbers beg two questions. First, has Sam Madison, one of the best man coverage cornerbacks in football, been able to adjust to Saban's primarily zone coverage schemes? Second, how much did the loss of Patrick Surtain affect Miami? The answers to those questions show that the Dolphins did have a problem that Saban has been able to solve.
The two most relevant cornerback statistics are completion percentage and yards per attempt. In 2004, Madison allowed a 50.7 percent completion rate and 6.4 yards per attempt, both of which ranked him in top 15 in the league in these categories, according to Scientific Football 2005. How is Madison doing in 2005? Here are his numbers through three games:
Game Atts. Comps. Comp. percentage Yds. Yds. att. TDs INTs Penalty yds.
vs. Broncos 5 1 20 10 2.0 0 0 0
at Jets 6 3 50 37 6.2 0 0 0
vs. Panthers 3 3 100 74 24.7 1 0 0
Totals 14 7 50 121 8.6 1 0 0
Madison's yards per attempt number is somewhat skewed due to Steve Smith's 53-yard TD on a 14-yard slant route on which Travares Tillman, a Dolphins safety, took a terrible angle when closing in for the tackle on Smith. Tillman not only missed the tackle but he also knocked Madison away from further pursuing Smith. This allowed Smith to get 39 yards after the catch for the TD. If you take out the 39 run-after-catch yards from this play and recalculate Madison's numbers, you find he is allowing only 5.9 yards per attempt. That number indicates that Madison is making the adjustment to this defense quite well through three games.
The loss of Surtain was seen as a big blow, but Surtain's 2004 numbers were actually not that good. Surtain allowed a 59 completion percentage and 8.6 yards per attempt in 2004, numbers that ranked him 55th and 65th in those respective categories, so his replacement wouldn't have far to go to replace Surtain's 2004 performance.
Miami replaced Surtain during its first two games with Reggie Howard. However, Howard's numbers were actually worse than Surtain's. Howard's 2005 chart:
Game Atts. Comps. Comp. percentage Yds. Yds. att. TDs INTs Penalty yds.
vs. Broncos 5 2 40 22 4.4 0 0 0
at Jets 8 6 75 112 14.0 0 0 0
vs. Panthers 6 4 66.7 67 11.2 1 0 27
Totals 19 12 63.2 201 10.6 1 0 27
The 63.2 completion percentage is bad, but the 10.6 yards per attempt is abysmal. Anything over 8 yards will put you in poor company and anything over 10 will put you on the bench or on the street. That number doesn't even take into account the 27 penalty yards against him. And if that wasn't bad enough, four of the six other incompletions against Howard could have been completed for at least 78 yards if not for inaccurate or dropped passes. It isn't a stretch to say Howard really wasn't stopping anything thrown his way.
The good news for the Dolphins is that they replaced Howard with Travis Daniels, a rookie fourth-round pick that Saban brought in from LSU. Daniels had his first start in Week 3 versus Carolina and had a very good showing. Here are Daniels' season-long numbers (he was a nickel back in Weeks 1 and 2):
Game Atts. Comps. Comp. percentage Yds. Yds. att. TDs INTs Penalty yds.
vs. Broncos 8 3 37.5 45 5.6 0 0 0
at Jets 3 2 66.7 10 3.3 1 0 0
vs. Panthers 8 2 25 24 3.0 0 0 16
Totals 19 7 36.8 79 4.2 1 0 16
Three of the incompletions in the Carolina game could have been completed if not for inaccurate passes, but my metrics show that those three passes would have netted only 20 yards at the point of incompletion. If you factor those 20 yards in, Daniels still would have allowed only 44 yards on eight passes, or only 5.5 yards per attempt in his first NFL start. Those are very good numbers and are probably better than Daniels will put up for the entire season, but the Dolphins only need Daniels to perform near this level for him to remain a very solid starter. This is just another instance of Saban's LSU connections paying off handsomely in Miami.
