Tua Tale of the Tape | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Tua Tale of the Tape

Very good article... Pretty much emphasizes the fact that we really dont dont what we have in Tua because of the circumstances... Though I dont like the part about the split that focus on Tua throwing beyond the sticks when not pressured. This is a reason I dont like using analytics exclusively for specific cases, when Im going full analytics, Im focusing on trends.

Reason being is that in this specific instance, Tua throwing beyond the sticks/not pressured, I've actually watched his throws in those multiple times and know exactly what the environment was on those, I've got a bunch of screen shots as a result. When the Fins decided to take shots, they kept a bunch of people back to block, and given that defenses around the league had no problem getting pressure without blitzing, this resulted in the Fins having 6-7 blockers back there blocking 3-4-5 defenders on many occasions.

Here's an example...

Image 22.png

Thats 8 Fins in the backfield at Tua's back of his drop against 4 rushers... What do you think downfield looks like? 3 guys out on routes vs 7 defenders...

Here's another one...

Image 12.png

Here we got 6 vs 3, top of the pic, middle of the field looks crowded as **** right? Whats ****ed up about it is that its only half the defenders in coverage on that play. 4 vs 8/everyone is technically doubled and they still get pressure. What do we really expect from a 2nd year QB here?

Anyways... Liked the article as Im a big analytics guy, but I know where analytics have weaknesses... Short sample size in outlier scenarios... Again, thats why most of the research I do is on overall trends where sample size is plentiful.
 
NBP81 said:
Very good article... Pretty much emphasizes the fact that we really dont dont what we have in Tua because of the circumstances... Though I dont like the part about the split that focus on Tua throwing beyond the sticks when not pressured. This is a reason I dont like using analytics exclusively for specific cases, when Im going full analytics, Im focusing on trends.

Reason being is that in this specific instance, Tua throwing beyond the sticks/not pressured, I've actually watched his throws in those multiple times and know exactly what the environment was on those, I've got a bunch of screen shots as a result. When the Fins decided to take shots, they kept a bunch of people back to block, and given that defenses around the league had no problem getting pressure without blitzing, this resulted in the Fins having 6-7 blockers back there blocking 3-4-5 defenders on many occasions.

Here's an example...

View attachment 105289

Thats 8 Fins in the backfield at Tua's back of his drop against 4 rushers... What do you think downfield looks like? 3 guys out on routes vs 7 defenders...

Here's another one...

View attachment 105290

Here we got 6 vs 3, top of the pic, middle of the field looks crowded as **** right? Whats ****ed up about it is that its only half the defenders in coverage on that play. 4 vs 8/everyone is technically doubled and they still get pressure. What do we really expect from a 2nd year QB here?

Anyways... Liked the article as Im a big analytics guy, but I know where analytics have weaknesses... Short sample size in outlier scenarios... Again, thats why most of the research I do is on overall trends where sample size is plentiful.
Click to expand...
My god that 6v3 pic is disgusting...
 
dunegoon said:
6v3 and they still broke thru... what a disaster that oline was. Who in there right mind can possibly get a proper evaluation after watching this nonsense in front of Tua.
Click to expand...
Broke through seems to imply that they were impeded at some point during their rush. That is beyond embarrassing that both garbage tackles are throwing look out blocks after whiffs. Thank god we got armstead even if he gets hurt nothing can be as bad as last year, unless we bring back dallas thomas and jon martin. God we have been awful up front forever.
 
NBP81 said:
Very good article... Pretty much emphasizes the fact that we really dont dont what we have in Tua because of the circumstances... Though I dont like the part about the split that focus on Tua throwing beyond the sticks when not pressured. This is a reason I dont like using analytics exclusively for specific cases, when Im going full analytics, Im focusing on trends.

Reason being is that in this specific instance, Tua throwing beyond the sticks/not pressured, I've actually watched his throws in those multiple times and know exactly what the environment was on those, I've got a bunch of screen shots as a result. When the Fins decided to take shots, they kept a bunch of people back to block, and given that defenses around the league had no problem getting pressure without blitzing, this resulted in the Fins having 6-7 blockers back there blocking 3-4-5 defenders on many occasions.

Here's an example...

View attachment 105289

Thats 8 Fins in the backfield at Tua's back of his drop against 4 rushers... What do you think downfield looks like? 3 guys out on routes vs 7 defenders...

Here's another one...

View attachment 105290

Here we got 6 vs 3, top of the pic, middle of the field looks crowded as **** right? Whats ****ed up about it is that its only half the defenders in coverage on that play. 4 vs 8/everyone is technically doubled and they still get pressure. What do we really expect from a 2nd year QB here?

Anyways... Liked the article as Im a big analytics guy, but I know where analytics have weaknesses... Short sample size in outlier scenarios... Again, thats why most of the research I do is on overall trends where sample size is plentiful.
Click to expand...
Jets can't break through, Saints can....another narrative that is getting old
 
BC Phins4Life said:
Jets can't break through, Saints can....another narrative that is getting old
Click to expand...
Yeah. It’s definitely an exaggeration to say the Jets couldn’t get pressure against our o-line last season. It’s crazy how you can look at one snap shot and it doesn’t come close to resembling reality.
 
NBP81 said:
Very good article... Pretty much emphasizes the fact that we really dont dont what we have in Tua because of the circumstances... Though I dont like the part about the split that focus on Tua throwing beyond the sticks when not pressured. This is a reason I dont like using analytics exclusively for specific cases, when Im going full analytics, Im focusing on trends.

Reason being is that in this specific instance, Tua throwing beyond the sticks/not pressured, I've actually watched his throws in those multiple times and know exactly what the environment was on those, I've got a bunch of screen shots as a result. When the Fins decided to take shots, they kept a bunch of people back to block, and given that defenses around the league had no problem getting pressure without blitzing, this resulted in the Fins having 6-7 blockers back there blocking 3-4-5 defenders on many occasions.

Here's an example...

View attachment 105289

Thats 8 Fins in the backfield at Tua's back of his drop against 4 rushers... What do you think downfield looks like? 3 guys out on routes vs 7 defenders...

Here's another one...

View attachment 105290

Here we got 6 vs 3, top of the pic, middle of the field looks crowded as **** right? Whats ****ed up about it is that its only half the defenders in coverage on that play. 4 vs 8/everyone is technically doubled and they still get pressure. What do we really expect from a 2nd year QB here?

Anyways... Liked the article as Im a big analytics guy, but I know where analytics have weaknesses... Short sample size in outlier scenarios... Again, thats why most of the research I do is on overall trends where sample size is plentiful.
Click to expand...
so 3 guys trying to block one rusher while our two OT's are one on one......nice
 
NBP81 said:
Very good article... Pretty much emphasizes the fact that we really dont dont what we have in Tua because of the circumstances... Though I dont like the part about the split that focus on Tua throwing beyond the sticks when not pressured. This is a reason I dont like using analytics exclusively for specific cases, when Im going full analytics, Im focusing on trends.

Reason being is that in this specific instance, Tua throwing beyond the sticks/not pressured, I've actually watched his throws in those multiple times and know exactly what the environment was on those, I've got a bunch of screen shots as a result. When the Fins decided to take shots, they kept a bunch of people back to block, and given that defenses around the league had no problem getting pressure without blitzing, this resulted in the Fins having 6-7 blockers back there blocking 3-4-5 defenders on many occasions.

Here's an example...

View attachment 105289

Thats 8 Fins in the backfield at Tua's back of his drop against 4 rushers... What do you think downfield looks like? 3 guys out on routes vs 7 defenders...

Here's another one...

View attachment 105290

Here we got 6 vs 3, top of the pic, middle of the field looks crowded as **** right? Whats ****ed up about it is that its only half the defenders in coverage on that play. 4 vs 8/everyone is technically doubled and they still get pressure. What do we really expect from a 2nd year QB here?

Anyways... Liked the article as Im a big analytics guy, but I know where analytics have weaknesses... Short sample size in outlier scenarios... Again, thats why most of the research I do is on overall trends where sample size is plentiful.
Click to expand...
Great post. Another example of why analytics are only as good as the variables they can encompass.

What good is a clean pocket, if it requires u to leaves so many blockers that there are enough guys in the secondary to double everyone.

But when I see a flaw in data analysis like this, I don’t see it as an indictment against diving deeper into the numbers. Merely it’s a limitation of what we’re currently using and looking at. I would love to see the number of blockers vs pass rushers somehow incorporated into this type of analysis.

Numbers aren’t going to tell us everything. But we’ve also been using numbers since forever. No one questions using passing yards or completion percentage when talking football. We’re used to those numbers tho. Players have always been judged by stats, and nobody is worried about the lack of context in the numbers they’re used to.

The first thing you should think whenever your looking at analytics like this is “what isn’t being accounted for?” And u just provided a great example.
 
NBP81 said:
Very good article... Pretty much emphasizes the fact that we really dont dont what we have in Tua because of the circumstances... Though I dont like the part about the split that focus on Tua throwing beyond the sticks when not pressured. This is a reason I dont like using analytics exclusively for specific cases, when Im going full analytics, Im focusing on trends.

Reason being is that in this specific instance, Tua throwing beyond the sticks/not pressured, I've actually watched his throws in those multiple times and know exactly what the environment was on those, I've got a bunch of screen shots as a result. When the Fins decided to take shots, they kept a bunch of people back to block, and given that defenses around the league had no problem getting pressure without blitzing, this resulted in the Fins having 6-7 blockers back there blocking 3-4-5 defenders on many occasions.

Here's an example...

View attachment 105289

Thats 8 Fins in the backfield at Tua's back of his drop against 4 rushers... What do you think downfield looks like? 3 guys out on routes vs 7 defenders...

Here's another one...

View attachment 105290

Here we got 6 vs 3, top of the pic, middle of the field looks crowded as **** right? Whats ****ed up about it is that its only half the defenders in coverage on that play. 4 vs 8/everyone is technically doubled and they still get pressure. What do we really expect from a 2nd year QB here?

Anyways... Liked the article as Im a big analytics guy, but I know where analytics have weaknesses... Short sample size in outlier scenarios... Again, thats why most of the research I do is on overall trends where sample size is plentiful.
Click to expand...
Thank you for this post. You talked me off the cliff. 😉
 
"The numbers suggest that Tua could be very efficient in a timing-based offense with better game plans and better playmakers. Both of which he now has."

I don't like this statement at all, as I assume that a timing-based offense means quick, short passes and I'm sick and tired of dink-and-dunk! If they can finally get half-decent o-line blocking this year along with a running game, then with Waddle and Hill as WRs I expect to see more big plays made downfield. I know Tua can throw deep, but most of the stats suggest that he's better at short passes. I really hope that Tua gets the protection needed to let WRs get open downfield so that the team can see how successful he is making those throws, or if he needs to be replaced. What I don't want to see is McDaniel running another short pass offense like Miami did in 2021. I can somewhat understand why they did it since they had the worst o-line in the league and no blocking. But, if your offense is mostly short passes because the QB is no good at going deep, then you don't have a good QB, and hiding that fact behind a dink-and-dunk offense is not a recipe for success.

IMO, it's pretty sad that no one knows what Tua can do because the team failed to give him a running game, or semi-adequate blocking!
 
gofins60 said:
"The numbers suggest that Tua could be very efficient in a timing-based offense with better game plans and better playmakers. Both of which he now has."

I don't like this statement at all, as I assume that a timing-based offense means quick, short passes and I'm sick and tired of dink-and-dunk! If they can finally get half-decent o-line blocking this year along with a running game, then with Waddle and Hill as WRs I expect to see more big plays made downfield. I know Tua can throw deep, but most of the stats suggest that he's better at short passes. I really hope that Tua gets the protection needed to let WRs get open downfield so that the team can see how successful he is making those throws, or if he needs to be replaced. What I don't want to see is McDaniel running another short pass offense like Miami did in 2021. I can somewhat understand why they did it since they had the worst o-line in the league and no blocking. But, if your offense is mostly short passes because the QB is no good at going deep, then you don't have a good QB, and hiding that fact behind a dink-and-dunk offense is not a recipe for success.

IMO, it's pretty sad that no one knows what Tua can do because the team failed to give him a running game, or semi-adequate blocking!
Click to expand...
Maybe timing based offense means throwing into windows/spots before receiver gets out of break? Indictment on arm strength? The author sees Tua with Brees as potential ceiling. May be accurate, time will tell. Hell, we whiffed on Brees twice, maybe our QB woes are finally over with a Brees like skill set in our young QB.
 
dreamblk said:
Tua is better than people think. Not sure why the hate narrative on the Kid considering we had no real Offensive coaches last year.
Click to expand...
Really us fans just need to root for this kid to succeed. I think some fall into the trap of wanting to be right about their assessment this guy doesn't have the goods to succeed at this level. Give him a decent offense to work worth, then draw your conclusions on his career trajectory. He's in a fins uniform, making rookie contract money, no reason for fin fans to hate
 
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