Tua's case for MVP - ESPN QBR is a good predictor

[WaddleWaddle]

ESPN has been tracking QBR since 2006 and I know looking at one stat can be misleading but it does seem to be a good predictor of MVP. The 2.5 missed games might hurt his chances but I expect him to finish top 2-3 in votes if he continues playing like this. He currently has the 10th best QBR when looking at ESPN's historical rankings.

1. 2007 Tom Brady 87.0 - Won MVP
2. 2006 Peyton Manning 86.4 - year LT won with 28 rushing TD's (Manning finished third)
3. 2011 Aaron Rodgers 83.8 - Won MVP
4. 2019 Lamar Jackson 83.0 - Won MVP
5. 2011 Drew Brees 82.3 - Finished 2nd (Rodgers won with 83.8)
6. 2009 Drew Brees 82.0 - Finished 2nd (Manning won with 80.7)
7. 2007 David Garrard 80.9 - Brady's historical season, Garrard also missed 4 games
8. 2009 Peyton Manning 80.7 - Won MVP
9. 2018 Patrick Mahomes 80.3 - Won MVP
10. 2022 Tua Tagovailoa 79.9 - TBD
11. 2020 Aaron Rodgers 79.8 - Won MVP
12. 2016 Matt Ryan 79.6 - Won MVP
13. 2016 Tom Brady 79.4 - Finished 2nd (Ryan won with 79.6)
14 . 2018 Drew Brees 79.2 - Finished 2nd (Mahomes won with 80.3)

Last I checked Tua was at +5000 so even if he doesn't win, you will likely be hit with a nice cash out as his odds climb the rest of the season.

 

[FinfanInBuffalo]

LOL @ that Garrard outlier.

 

[WaddleWaddle]

LOL @ that Garrard outlier.

hahaha yeah that one really stood out to me

 

[rafael]

I’m not a fan of QBR b/c there’s some secret subjective element, but that subjective element is probably a plus in predicting MVP b/c there’s a subjective element there too.