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Tunsil Trade Revisited

While I understand your point - the last comment is interesting since Waddle, Holland and Tyreek are in there - would u not just trade Tunsil for those 3? Of course there are a bunch of misses as well but seems a weird way to end your pt
 
I think Flores really hurt us in a few ways. One he was a good coach who was building a tough team but he couldn't get along with anyone so we had to move on.

Second: He cost us those draft picks. That stuff happens a lot and teams tamper but they hammered us with losing the first and third. That makes trading the other picks for chubb harder to digest since we lost those picks.

Thirdly. I think the franchise felt pressure to help tua succeed after his first two years with Flores. They were so unstable and got so much media attention from benching him, shoulda drafted matt jones, wanting to trade him for Watson. It was never ending. I never seen so much negative media attention after a qb first two years. Especially when he was decent and had a winning record and decent numbers. He wasn't Ryan Leaf or Jamar Russel bad.

I think when Hill became free from the chiefs that the team jumped on it so that they could support tua and show that he could play in this league because the narrative was he was a bust. Which I don't think he was. His numbers were better in his first two years then maybe other qbs that didn't get the negative media attention. But they wanted to change the narrative and traded for Hill. Which is fine. But now you are limiting draft capital for several years because of the trades for Hill and tampering. If he was just a regular third year qb without all the negative attention they might have continued building slowly with draft capital and cap space . Just like they started around 2020.
 
I mentioned this in the other thread. They did their rebuild right. Meanwhile this is the very last season for Miami to do anything in the playoffs before the massive Tua contract is handed out

Ultimately the same thing keeps ringing true. This team is screwed as long as Ross is owner.
 
It's fine if you want to look at things that way but I think most people find that 'woah is me' thinking more of a way to bury your head in the sand than an actual breakdown of why things failed.

For instance, saying that 2022 was all about Tua getting hurt isn't really true. For one, he missed more time in 2021 under Brian Flores with broken ribs and an injured hand than he did with concussions under McDaniel and nobody's crying about how Flores got robbed.

There was more to it than that. There was a collapse that started in SF and played out thru GB wherein we lost 4 straight games with Tua before he left.

We went from being on a roll looking like world-beaters against DET, CHI, CLE and HOU to stalling out against SF and getting totally embarrassed at LA on SNF.

View attachment 168296

We competed well against BUF but Tua's INTs against GB cost us that game and quite frankly he didn't look concussed in the moment. All those reports came later. Nobody was saying anything in the midst of that collapse. It was all after-the-fact the following week. Most people just saw GB defenders sinking into spots to pick off passes they knew were coming. We'd seen good defenses do that before.

The way the BUF, SF and LAC defenses had previously pressured Miami's offense it was clear Miami could be stopped.


2023 was more about injuries, sure, but the fact remains the offense came up small in basically every big game and Tua was playing in all of them. Most of the major injuries didn't happen until later in the season: Hill, Chubb, Phillips, etc.

Points Scored by Miami:

BUF - 20
PHI - 17
KC - 14
BAL - 19
DAL - 22
BUF - 14
KC - 7

Saying you were too hurt to compete just doesn't sit well with people who actually watched the games. It's wasn't injuries that made the offense so inept. It just didn't look well sorted and it didn't have answers a lot of the time. The better the opponent, the more the offense got exposed.

Miami isn't where it needs to be to compete. Ascribing that solely to injuries and thinking we'll be fine in 2024-2025 is going to leave you unhappy when you find out the truth. There's work to be done to improve and get to the level of actually winning Playoff games and making a Super Bowl run.
I agree. I also think the best thing you said was that miami just wasn't ready to compete. I mean though if we are being honest didn't we all think we were a wild card team at best. My hope the last two years was to make the playoffs because that was what I thought we were capable of. I never really thought we were better than that. Honestly last year when schedule came out I penciled in losses to chiefs eagles, ravens and at buffalo. I said if we beat chargers in season opener, road against pats,(before I knew how bad they were), cowboys at home we could make playoffs. I think jets losing rodgers really helped us. We got two free wins there. I just continue to see this team as a wild card team for the last few years. 2021 we missed it and last two years we made it. I see that again this year so far. Not sure if we make it this year. Tua needs to take another step. We need to get better in the trenches on the line. Now d line I am concerned with now too. I am hopeful about tua because he is finally working with qb coach and he seems to improve each year.
 
Let's gloss over the fact the Flores forced Fitz out the door creating a need at Safety were none existed. Chubb is also here because of that trade and some of the compensation that came from it.

So let's do simple Math; 1 pro bowler for 4 pro bowlers. Yup, I'll take it.
 
Ok this is ridiculous.

On August 31, 2019, Tunsil, Kenny Stills, and a fourth-round pick were traded to the Houston Texans in exchange for two first-round picks, a second-round pick, Johnson Bademosi, and Julien Davenport. He started 14 games at left tackle in 2019, earning his first trip to the Pro Bowl.

2019 Houston went 10-6, won the AFC South, beat Buffalo in the WC then blew a 24-0 lead losing 51-31 to the Chiefs.

2019 Miami went 5-11, earning the 5th overall pick in the draft as they start their rebuild.

2020 Draft Miami trades one of the 1sts (26th overall) they got from Houston to Green Bay (for 30th overall and a 4th rd pick) so the Packers could select Jordon Love. Miami uses pick from Green Bay (30th) for Noah Igbinoghene who is now on his 3rd team already. That 4th rd pick was traded to Houston to move up and take Solomon Kindley @ pick 111 Houston got picks 136 and 141.

2020 Texans begin their rebuild go 4-12. Tunsil makes pro bowl for 2nd consecutive season.

2020 Miami goes 10-6, misses playoffs

2021 draft...where things gets wonky, Miami trades the #3 overall pick (the 2nd FRP from houston in Tunsil trade) to San Francisco (49ers used pick for Trey Lance) for pick #12, a FRP in 2022 a 3rd in 2022 and a FRP in 2023. Miami then trades back up to #6 with Philadelphia giving up #12 and #123 and a FRP in 2022. Miami also got a 5th rd pick. Miami drafts Jaylen Waddle @6. Miami trades that 5th rd pick to Pittsburgh for a 2022 4th rd pick (Erik Ezukanma) Miami uses that Houston tunsil trade 2nd rd pick on Jevon Holland.


2021 Texans go 4-13.

2021 Dolphins go 9-8 miss playoffs

2022 draft Miami trades their FRP (#29) from Trey Lance 49er trade and a 4th rd pick to KC for Tyreek Hill. Miami uses 3rd rd pick from 49ers Trey Lance trade for Channing Tindall

2022 season Miami goes 9-8, loses to Buffalo in WC
2022 Texans go 3-13-1, Tunsil makes pro bowl for 3rd time.

2023 Draft miami forfeits the 2nd FRP from 49ers lance trade for tampering.

2023 season Miami goes 11-6 loses to KC in WC
2023 Texans go 10-7, win AFC South, beat Cleveland in WC before losing to Baltimore in Divisional Rd. Tunsil makes pro bowl for 4th time.

lol how is Houston how closer to a SB than Miami is? How did San Francisco not have a setback from missing on Lance (yeah I know they got lucky on Purdy). Something ain't right in the FO here. Houston gets rid of Bill O'brien, rebuild, draft Franchise QB, win division and a playoff game, become SB contenders all in the span of 5 years while Miami still spinning its wheels.

Miami basically got Noah Igbinoghene, Solomon Kindley, Jaylen Waddle, Erik Ezukanma, Jevon Holland, Tyreek Hill, and Channing Tindall from their Tunsil trade which overlaps with the Trey Lance trade. Not much to show for it. Miami pretty much got a 70 point game and good offense in September/October out of all this. Was it worth it?

FWIW, I didn't like the whole 'trade assets and tank' strategy.

Things are too unpredictable and having more assets in the draft doesn't make everything easier. You still have to pick the right key pieces. You don't get multiple shots at QB for instance. You're still going to end up tied to 1 guy. It just didn't impress me as a strategy. I never bought in.

I just didn't understand why wiping the slate clean was giving people confidence that we'd suddenly start making better decisions in the draft. If you weren't great at team-building before and you fell short having acquired many of the wrong pieces and none of your rosters ever lasted, why was a broader team-building project going to go more smoothly?


So, congrats to Houston. I have no hard feelings. I like seeing teams rebound. But at the end of the day, Houston plays in a very weak division. They should roll to another AFC South title in 2024 with no one really in their way. They hosted the Browns and won a Playoff game in 2023 but how amazing was that? If Miami sat in the AFC South they easily could've done the same.

Miami has to contend with the Buffalo Bills and the NYJ are quietly poised to make a big splash in 2024 if indeed Aaron Rodgers comes back healthy. They have a great defense and good weapons that now include WR Garrett Wilson, WR Mike Williams and RB Breece Hall. They pick at #10 and could scoop up someone like TE Brock Bowers further rounding out their offense. Don't sleep on the NYJ.

I don't hate where Miami is at. I don't hate having traded for Tyreek Hill who's been the most productive WR in the NFL in his 2 years here and who has helped our QB tremendously. I don't necessarily hate having picked Waddle over Chase & Sewell (even though I think they're both ultimately better players).

Miami is a solid team and I'm pleased to say that. Miami's had more good than bad. We just haven't done the great things (and which often involve a good bit of luck) to really be at the level of making a SB run...



...but we shouldn't make excuses either.

When the Seahawks dominated in 2013 and 2014 they had to contend with the 49ers in their division who had just gone to the Super Bowl in 2012. The Bengals made it to a Super Bowl while being in a very competitive division. The Ravens have won that division multiple times and gotten the #1 seed when the opportunity arose.




If you really want to get picky, I think there are things to look at where we've messed up:

(1) You hired & fired your HC.

If Brian Flores wasn't the right guy, you shouldn't have hired him in the first place.

>> If he wasn't down to tank, why'd you hire him?
>> If he wasn't down with the QB you fell in love with and wanted to draft, why'd you hire him?
>> If he wasn't down with tampering, why'd you hire him?
>> If he couldn't flesh out a coaching staff that brought value, why'd you hire him?

(2) You ignored the writing on the wall with your QB.

We saw in 2020 and 2021 that Tua Tagovailoa had limitations. He wasn't going to lift the entire franchise and play big in key games. He splashed against ARI and looked solid in a few other games (ATL, NYJ, CAR, NYG) but generally underwhelmed.

In his 2nd season when he was supposed to be more physically-prepared and comfortable in the NFL, Tua ranked 29th in Yds/Gm, 20th in INT% and had 0 4th qtr comebacks.

He threw 16 total TDs to 10 INTs which kind of sucks. He also got hurt and missed 6.5 games. Nothing about that moment really said "this is definitely your franchise QB!"

He just wasn't special. He didn't have the arm strength to scare defenses...or the mobility to punish them. And he didn't really exhibit any special clutch gene like Burrow did. He didn't stay healthy and produce big numbers like Herbert either.

You were either going to try and hide that reality (which we've done) or you were going to cut bait and re-start with someone else (like Philbin apparently wanted to do after 2 years with Tannehill).

I like Tua as a person and respect him as a solid NFL QB but I probably would've cut bait after 2021. If they "don't bite as pups" and all. The magic just wasn't happening.

(3) You screwed yourself in the draft.

You can't be excited about your R1 & R2 hits when they're prospects playing positions like DT, G, FS, etc. Who's taking those positions in the top-40 and winning the Super Bowl? Those need to come from the mid-rounds or else be HoF caliber hits like Aaron Donald (which Wilkins & Davis certainly were not) or Ed Reed (which Holland is not).

We used high picks on bad positions and had a few busts (Igbinoghene, Davis, Eichenberg, etc.). We also pushed important positions like WR down into the mid-rounds where we whiffed on basically everyone not named Andrew Van Ginkel.
 
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The crazy thing is we traded a very good lineman for a lot of assets and STILL HAVE NOT FIXED the OL. Grier has still not even remotely come close to fixing the biggest issue this team has had for over a decade. In 2016 when he took over, we were 10-6. We were 11-6 last year. He has basically at his best during his tenure kept us as a borderline playoff team that can't win in the playoffs. Dude needs to go PERIOD!
 
It's fine if you want to look at things that way but I think most people find that 'woah is me' thinking more of a way to bury your head in the sand than an actual breakdown of why things failed.

For instance, saying that 2022 was all about Tua getting hurt isn't really true. For one, he missed more time in 2021 under Brian Flores with broken ribs and an injured hand than he did with concussions under McDaniel and nobody's crying about how Flores got robbed.

There was more to it than that. There was a collapse that started in SF and played out thru GB wherein we lost 4 straight games with Tua before he left.

We went from being on a roll looking like world-beaters against DET, CHI, CLE and HOU to stalling out against SF and getting totally embarrassed at LA on SNF.

View attachment 168296

We competed well against BUF but Tua's INTs against GB cost us that game and quite frankly he didn't look concussed in the moment. All those reports came later. Nobody was saying anything in the midst of that collapse. It was all after-the-fact the following week. Most people just saw GB defenders sinking into spots to pick off passes they knew were coming. We'd seen good defenses do that before.

The way the BUF, SF and LAC defenses had previously pressured Miami's offense it was clear Miami could be stopped.


2023 was more about injuries, sure, but the fact remains the offense came up small in basically every big game and Tua was playing in all of them. Most of the major injuries didn't happen until later in the season: Hill, Chubb, Phillips, etc.

Points Scored by Miami:

BUF - 20
PHI - 17
KC - 14
BAL - 19
DAL - 22
BUF - 14
KC - 7

Saying you were too hurt to compete just doesn't sit well with people who actually watched the games. It's wasn't injuries that made the offense so inept. It just didn't look well sorted and it didn't have answers a lot of the time. The better the opponent, the more the offense got exposed.

Miami isn't where it needs to be to compete. Ascribing that solely to injuries and thinking we'll be fine in 2024-2025 is going to leave you unhappy when you find out the truth. There's work to be done to improve and get to the level of actually winning Playoff games and making a Super Bowl run.
Last year most of the injuries were on the defensive side of the ball and the defense held out better than the offense did with Tua, Hill and Waddle. They may have been banged up but they played. The defense held Buffalo to 14 points the offense was a no show. The banged up defense held Mahomes and the eventual champs to 26 pts in -30 temps on the road. The offense didn't show up. The offense literally got worse every week after the 30-0 Jets win: 30 vs the jets, dropped to 22 vs dallas, then down to 19 vs Baltimore, a measly 14 vs Buffalo and then a pathetic 7 vs KC on a fluky play. The only game you can blame the defense is the Ravens game and that game every unit was awful. Using injuries for that collapse especially on the defensive side of the ball is the BS easy way out.
 
The crazy thing is we traded a very good lineman for a lot of assets and STILL HAVE NOT FIXED the OL. Grier has still not even remotely come close to fixing the biggest issue this team has had for over a decade. In 2016 when he took over, we were 10-6. We were 11-6 last year. He has basically at his best during his tenure kept us as a borderline playoff team that can't win in the playoffs. Dude needs to go PERIOD!
Also that whiff on noah igbinoghene is still hurting Miami today. A pick that no one here liked from day 1. Why draft a project with that pick?
 
Let's gloss over the fact the Flores forced Fitz out the door creating a need at Safety were none existed. Chubb is also here because of that trade and some of the compensation that came from it.

So let's do simple Math; 1 pro bowler for 4 pro bowlers. Yup, I'll take it.
Because this is focusing on the Tunsil trade effects.
 
Also that whiff on noah igbinoghene is still hurting Miami today. A pick that no one here liked from day 1. Why draft a project with that pick?

I think people over-rate the significance of the Igbinoghene bust.

(1) You had a slew of picks so a couple reaches were understandable
(2) CB is normally a worthy position
(3) It was a late-R1 pick (not a Top-15 selection)
(4) The best alternative was probably RB which isn't a popular pick either.
(5) The prospect came from a big school in the SEC (normally a safe bet)


Then you have circumstantial things that add context:

(6) You needed someone with the physical talent to potentially step in and become a starter within 1.5-years
(7) You had a HC who specialized in Defense
(8) Your HC came from an organization that specialized in Secondary play


Then there were factors that made the reach itself somewhat okay:

(9) You had veteran leaders in the secondary: Howard, Jones, McCain, Rowe, etc.
(10) You had two starters on-board in X-Howard & B-Jones (thus Noah could learn as a back-up)


And maybe the most important fact here:

(11) The team recognized Igbinoghene's short-comings and didn't force him on the field. Instead they eventually traded him away concluding his tenure and not dragging it out thru some awful 2nd veteran minimum contract.


I'm sorry but with our CBs having been Xavien Howard, Byron Jones, Jalen Ramsey and now Kendall Fuller. I just don't think we can complain about a single CB bust that cost us a pick but which made some sense at the time given the context, especially when most people's alternative pick would've been a RB, a position we mostly feel great about today.
 
Congrats, though we can still win nothing with 1 pro bowler instead of 4. Cheaper that way
Congrats, we haven't gone to back to back playoff appearances since 2000 and 2001 until 2022 and 2023. People who want to fit the narrative to the agenda with hindsight are always gonna have an advantage over the ones moving forward.
 
Congrats, we haven't gone to back to back playoff appearances since 2000 and 2001 until 2022 and 2023. People who want to fit the narrative to the agenda with hindsight are always gonna have an advantage over the ones moving forward.
Ooh playoff appearances. Does Miami hang that in their ring of honor? Thank god the playoffs extended to a seventh seed or else miami would have a few less playoff appearances as that's all they can get. That's the problem with this franchise nowadays: Settling with mediocrity. It's trickled down to the fanbase as well. That stuff, just making the playoffs 5 times in 2+ decades is stuff franchises like Cincinnati used to call success and Miami with Shula would deem pathetic. But even they now have higher standards than that. This stretch since 2000 for Miami would not fly in Baltimore or Green Bay or San Francisco. Grier would have been canned with those franchises decades ago. You should have high expectations than that.
 
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