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Understanding Value of LB's

The Bopkin

The Bopkin

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OK, so I have a question:
Lots of talk about Linebackers not being a premium position.
With that said- where is the "value" then for drafting a LB? Does it depend on the LB himself, where you value say, Micah Parsons vs KJ Britt?
Is there a point at which you say, No way I am taking a LB that high.
Let's say the grades on Micah Parsons say he is a potential hall of fame LB, based on grades, ability, work ethic, all that. If he is a hall of fame potential player, would you still take him at 3? Or is that still too high?
I am really trying to understand the whole concept of "value", which on a superficial level I do, but there are nuances to it that I am trying to understand better.
For example, would you pass on any LB in round one, hall of fame potential or not, if the drop off is not so great? For example, if I have two sixth rounds picks, would I just be as smart to take Errol Thompson and KJ Britt late and call it a day?
After seeing Tampa Bay's defense in the Super Bowl, it really made me re-think the whole view of LB's, their value, and where I would draft one.
Would love to hear others' thoughts.
 
Value essentially corresponds to the salaries and how they're slotted in the draft. You don't typically see TE's drafted in the top 5 because the salary isn't going to match up pertaining to the top TE salaries in the league. The highest paid TE's in the league are probably making less than $15 million, but the salaries for the draft slots in the top 5 are going to be higher than that. The salaries for the top 5 draft slots are probably going to be upwards of $30 million.

Linebacker is a little different. The salaries for the top LB's are going to be upwards of $20 million so teams don't mind justifying the pick if the grade warrants a selection that high. You can work the numbers to make them mean whatever you want when you get in the ballpark, and NFL teams employ people in front offices to do this. No different than a car salesman.

That's basically what value means to people that actually have to write the checks.
 
NY8123 said:
I wouldn't sleep on Owusu and Zaven Collins. Collins is a huge LB with speed and Owusu is that hybrid guy who just seems to create havoc wherever he is on the field. If there was a top 3 LB sitting there at 18, I'd take one.
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Releasing Van Noy seems to make that more of a possibility.
 
LB was a significant need anyway, adding in the release of Van Noy makes it an even bigger one.

We will see if they do anything there in FA but LB at #18 is certainly in play need wise and value wise.

Assuming Flores wants big LB's in the NE fashion you would think JOK would not be a fit for Miami but they may view him as the swiss army knife type guy who they move all around the formation.

Collins checks all the boxes physically and Parsons is an obvious monster talent with legit off field questions.

Baron Browning seems like a sensible fit for them late R2.

Cox could carry a little more weight and Surrat is new to the position so his upside could be huge.
 
In today's economics, LB value is generally tied to just one thing... sacks.

Show us a run stopping LB who can cover... and most yawn and change the subject, and I think this is similar to the situations with how WRs are regarded. So many only want offensive weapons, willing to take 8 receptions per game over 50 successful blocks by a lineman. They want splash plays... excitement!!!

A three down linebacker? Booooring!!

Look... there's a burning trainwreck!!! Yayyyyy!
 
I think there is still value in a linebacker who can do it all.. But a guy who is truly rare- Ray Lewis, Brian Urlacher, Zach Thomas, .... more recently Patrick Willis, Luke Kuechly. Bobby Wagner is/was up there too as elite. Devin White looks to be on his way

but if you can diagnose the play, play the run and cover well, (and sometimes blitz/pass rush) I think that’s worthy of a first round pick absolutely. The question I feel like is, how high though, Parsons could become one of those guys- but still needs to develop too

they’re on the field all 3 downs- right smack in the middle of the things - still need good players there. It’s kind of why hoops has me sold on Parsons, he’s a perfect counter to Josh Allen

(yea I know, so is scoring points)

Idk about at 3 but if we trade down and for some reason don’t pick a receiver, (like the top 3 were all gone or something lol) I wouldn’t be mad with micah
 
LB value has gone down as teams spend more time in nickel where LBs are replaced by CBs or Ss. Miami, in particular, seems to want to play with three Ss on the field. IMO that really ups the value of a guy like JOK as a LB/S hybrid. And I think Zaven Collins can play both on the edge and in the middle while providing a better coverage option than KVN.

I've done a few mocks where Miami signed Aaron Jones (as some are expecting) and then I drafted JOK and Collins (along with DeVonta Smith, Landon Dickerson, D'wayne Eskridge and Tyler Shelvin, among others).
 
jimthefin said:
...Assuming Flores wants big LB's in the NE fashion you would think JOK would not be a fit for Miami but they may view him as the swiss army knife type guy who they move all around the formation....
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I have never been a fan of big LB's i.e. LeBeau/Pittsburgh.

I'd think that w/ the amoeba style D that Flores employs has a few LB/S hybrids. In the cheatriots run, they had Don Davis who Madden described as a safety wearing #50.
 
Basically, the draft is set contracts that teams get that they can put any player available on. At least since the rookie wage scale. Given that different positions have different average salaries, this is where you can put value on different position groups. The scale decreases on an exponential curve, its at its steepest in the top 10 so this is where you really dont want to make mistakes.

Last I checked about 2 years ago, positional value looked like QB>>>>LT>>WR>Pass rusher>CB>IOL, LB, DT>>TE>RB. Lets say you're picking at #3 and you estimate that contract to be around 34M for 4 years which averages to 8.5 APY. Using positional value, its easy to see how you're much more likely to get bang on your buck by selecting one of the top positions, that contract is about:
  • backup money for a QB
  • jag LT money
  • average #2 WR
  • average #2 pass rusher
  • average CB
  • good IOL
  • good LB
  • good DT
  • very good TE
  • almost elite RB
Keep in mind thats just to try and illustrate my point, this is not exact, just off the top of my head. The real takeaway here is that the least expensive position group you decide to assign the rookie contract to, the more you have to be right in order to justify the contract. In other words, having a bust RB on a 8.5 APY contract is a disaster as opposed to say getting a #3 WR on it. Sure Having a #3 WR on that contract isnt optimal but you're almost paying market value for him anyway. Missing on a QB there is really no biggie as the dude will make backup money anyway.

As for LB, I simply dont like it in the 1st because 1) there are so many other value positions over it that I think its almost impossible to not find a better deal and 2) In this passing league, they simply wont make enough of a difference on a team that can score 30 burgers consistently. Could make sense if you're already one of those top offenses but Fins definitely arent there yet.
 
utahphinsfan said:
I have never been a fan of big LB's i.e. LeBeau/Pittsburgh.

I'd think that w/ the amoeba style D that Flores employs has a few LB/S hybrids. In the cheatriots run, they had Don Davis who Madden described as a safety wearing #50.
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Overall the Parcells/Belichick defenses have always had big LB's. Very rarely if ever did they feature smaller, speedy LB's.

We may be wrong in assuming Flores wants to emulate that but there is no question that is what the NYG and Patriots were doing at that position.
 
jimthefin said:
Overall the Parcells/Belichick defenses have always had big LB's. Very rarely if ever did they feature smaller, speedy LB's.

We may be wrong in assuming Flores wants to emulate that but there is no question that is what the NYG and Patriots were doing at that position.
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We did try to draft a lb/s hybrid player once already. We wanted the Princess to play that spot, but she had a hissy fit and got her mommy to complain via the media.

So... yes, Flores comes from the Bellicheat tree, but we have shown some interest in a lighter weight playmaker for the back line. I'm not in favor of this being a first (or even second) round selection, but I'm not sure that our front office wouldn't try this again... maybe with a male player this time.
 
Feverdream said:
We did try to draft a lb/s hybrid player once already. We wanted the Princess to play that spot, but she had a hissy fit and got her mommy to complain via the media.

So... yes, Flores comes from the Bellicheat tree, but we have shown some interest in a lighter weight playmaker for the back line. I'm not in favor of this being a first (or even second) round selection, but I'm not sure that our front office wouldn't try this again... maybe with a male player this time.
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Fitzpatrick was drafted the year before Flores got to Miami so he had no input in that decision.
 
rafael said:
LB value has gone down as teams spend more time in nickel where LBs are replaced by CBs or Ss. Miami, in particular, seems to want to play with three Ss on the field. IMO that really ups the value of a guy like JOK as a LB/S hybrid. And I think Zaven Collins can play both on the edge and in the middle while providing a better coverage option than KVN.

I've done a few mocks where Miami signed Aaron Jones (as some are expecting) and then I drafted JOK and Collins (along with DeVonta Smith, Landon Dickerson, D'wayne Eskridge and Tyler Shelvin, among others).
Click to expand...
Landon Dickerson injury history scares me
 
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