Upgrades Since '17 - D Edition

[fansinceGWilson]

This is more of a question than a statement of fact. I want to compare the D personnel of '17 to the projected personnel of '17. Instantly, we know a problem. There is no real evidence for guys like McMillan, but I'm going to try anyway. BTW, I'm using game 1 of '17. And I'm going to list units but I want to compare individual players.

DT - Suh and Phillips vs Unknown and Phillips. Phillips is equal since he's a starter both years. Anybody replacing Suh is a downgrade.
DE - Branch and Wake vs Wake and unknown. Miami SEEMS to have talent at DE. Will the 2nd DE be Harris, Branch, or Quinn? Hard to say. For me, it's equal.
LB - Muauluga, Timmons, KA vs McMillan, unknown and KA - KA is a wash, starting both seasons. McMillan is an upgrade, Maualuga was that bad. I'm uncertain on the 3rd spot. Anthony? Baker? Either can cover better than Timmons. I'll call that even.
CB - Maxwell, X, and McCain vs unknown, X, McCain - Lippett or Tank over Maxwell is an upgrade. Based on X's play the last 8 games of '17, I'm calling the '18 X an upgrade over the game 1 '17 X. McCain? I'm inclined fans will see a better McCain, but I'll call it even.
S - Jones and Aiken vs. Jones and Fitz. Fitz is an upgrade.

Looks to me like 6 upgrades, some significant, and one downgrade. And the intangibles - 1 year in the system and, for guys like Tank and Harris, a year's experience in the NFL, and Burke having experience, SHOULD be upgrades. Thus, I see a better D. Now it's up to the players to perform.

 

[artdnj]

We will suffer a bit without Suh. I hope that lb play takes up the slack or we'll see the effect of losing that stud in the interior.

 

[The Ghost]

There are enough addition's and talent added to this defense that I am ok with just letting the chips fall where they may. There will be bumps along the way but hopefully our offense can steer the ship long enough for the defense to find it's rhythm.

 

[SF Dolphin Fan]

It's hard to say. I think the secondary should be quite a bit better with the additions of Fitzpatrick, Lippett coming back and McDonald being available for the entire season.

I agree with you on defensive tackle. That is probably the biggest question mark heading into the season. Not sure counting on Phillips to take that next step is the best idea, but if he does that certainly would be huge.

Linebacker has the potential to be better as well with McMillan and Baker.

 

[NBP81]

It sucks because Im usually a very optimistic person, but I think the D will fall flat on its face in 2018... The middle of the D is neither stout or experienced, they will not control the line of scrimmage very well. 2018's D will depend alot on the offense outputs in first halves of games... Fins have to grab leads and make opponents one dimensionnal, in that script, the defense's best players will shine, in games where opponents can use the whole playbook, they will be overwhelmed... IMO

 

[Burnt Reynolds]

We will suffer a bit without Suh. I hope that lb play takes up the slack or we'll see the effect of losing that stud in the interior.

we'll suffer more than a bit without Suh. He's a huge void to fill. Literally.

 

[Burnt Reynolds]

It sucks because Im usually a very optimistic person, but I think the D will fall flat on its face in 2018... The middle of the D is neither stout or experienced, they will not control the line of scrimmage very well. 2018's D will depend alot on the offense outputs in first halves of games... Fins have to grab leads and make opponents one dimensionnal, in that script, the defense's best players will shine, in games where opponents can use the whole playbook, they will be overwhelmed... IMO

I have the same fear for the same reasons, but don't think we quite fall on our face. I think our DE's will get decent pressure and secondary will play a bit tighter than last year, but I fear we'll get crushed up the middle and relying upon unproven pieces to get the job done (DT's and LB's).

Our offense under Gase has typically taken a while to get warmed up (seems like we hardly put together many opening scoring drives in the Gase era) and if we start from behind and get one-dimensional, it gets scary putting that much pressure on Tannehill.

 

[Burnt Reynolds]

This is more of a question than a statement of fact. I want to compare the D personnel of '17 to the projected personnel of '17. Instantly, we know a problem. There is no real evidence for guys like McMillan, but I'm going to try anyway. BTW, I'm using game 1 of '17. And I'm going to list units but I want to compare individual players.

DT - Suh and Phillips vs Unknown and Phillips. Phillips is equal since he's a starter both years. Anybody replacing Suh is a downgrade.
DE - Branch and Wake vs Wake and unknown. Miami SEEMS to have talent at DE. Will the 2nd DE be Harris, Branch, or Quinn? Hard to say. For me, it's equal.
LB - Muauluga, Timmons, KA vs McMillan, unknown and KA - KA is a wash, starting both seasons. McMillan is an upgrade, Maualuga was that bad. I'm uncertain on the 3rd spot. Anthony? Baker? Either can cover better than Timmons. I'll call that even.
CB - Maxwell, X, and McCain vs unknown, X, McCain - Lippett or Tank over Maxwell is an upgrade. Based on X's play the last 8 games of '17, I'm calling the '18 X an upgrade over the game 1 '17 X. McCain? I'm inclined fans will see a better McCain, but I'll call it even.
S - Jones and Aiken vs. Jones and Fitz. Fitz is an upgrade.

Looks to me like 6 upgrades, some significant, and one downgrade. And the intangibles - 1 year in the system and, for guys like Tank and Harris, a year's experience in the NFL, and Burke having experience, SHOULD be upgrades. Thus, I see a better D. Now it's up to the players to perform.

One thing you fail to address is how these units interact with each other and play as a whole. For example, Suh's absence not only affects the DT's, but the DE's and LB's. If Suh isn't there to get double-teamed, then Wake or Quinn will and that makes our DE's weaker. If Suh isn't there drawing double teams or penetrating and opening holes for the LB's, then our those extra blockers get to the second level and block out our LB's making that unit weaker. His absence will be noticeable.

 

[phintim]

Run defense is the weak link right now no Suh who stopped the run better than anyone on the roster until proven otherwise.
Downgrade_So DT downgrade compared to last year this time.
Could surprise-Linebacker with Msi, Kiko, McMilian and Timmons looked stronger last year at this time when comparing it to Kiko. McMillan, Baker and a host of other less experienced linebackers on this years roster.
Average-Punter
Shutdown- We got the stuff / talent to be elite in both the backfield and corners if all stay healthy and the coaching shows up. Gonna force the opposing teams to pound our middle. Eh but not the worst problem to have.
Kickbutt top notch-Defensive end talent, depth and experience on this squad should be able to send wave after wave of sacks.

 

[PHINANALYST]

I think that the whole Suh thing is way overrated... we’ll see of course as the season goes on ....

Not saying the man wasn’t good at his craft, but he only did what ‘he’ wanted to do ... and did not do for the team.

We need more than just line up every snap and see if they can beat us .... we were way too vanilla. With the folks we have in house right now, we ‘should’ have the ability and buy in for different looks ....

 

[JahnDho]

Run defense is the weak link right now no Suh who stopped the run better than anyone on the roster until proven otherwise.
Downgrade_So DT downgrade compared to last year this time.
Could surprise-Linebacker with Msi, Kiko, McMilian and Timmons looked stronger last year at this time when comparing it to Kiko. McMillan, Baker and a host of other less experienced linebackers on this years roster.
Average-Punter
Shutdown- We got the stuff / talent to be elite in both the backfield and corners if all stay healthy and the coaching shows up. Gonna force the opposing teams to pound our middle. Eh but not the worst problem to have.
Kickbutt top notch-Defensive end talent, depth and experience on this squad should be able to send wave after wave of sacks.

Last time I checked, Misi retired last year after spinal neck fusion. They have a few young guys in Anthony, Baker and Polling. Anthony was a 1st rd pick for NO that Miami picked up cheaply. We need him to play to his potential.

Fins defensive front 7 is their weakest link. Teams will force them to stop the run, short routes, screens and flats. If they get ahead they’ll just continue to pound the ball and kill the clock to keep Miami’s O off the field. Their rotation of Wake, Quinn, Hayes, Branch and Harris isn’t stout. Wake and/or Quinn will get taken out by extra attention and double teams. Neither are elite anymore to shed that on a consistent basis. No DE will get more than 12 sacks and I think that’s a stretch.

Secondary will do well against the pass, but being forced to play the run so much will compromise their ability to be an elite group.

 

[phintim]

Last time I checked, Misi retired last year after spinal neck fusion. They have a few young guys in Anthony, Baker and Polling. Anthony was a 1st rd pick for NO that Miami picked up cheaply. We need him to play to his potential.

Fins defensive front 7 is their weakest link. Teams will force them to stop the run, short routes, screens and flats. If they get ahead they’ll just continue to pound the ball and kill the clock to keep Miami’s O off the field. Their rotation of Wake, Quinn, Hayes, Branch and Harris isn’t stout. Wake and/or Quinn will get taken out by extra attention and double teams. Neither are elite anymore to shed that on a consistent basis. No DE will get more than 12 sacks and I think that’s a stretch.

Secondary will do well against the pass, but being forced to play the run so much will compromise their ability to be an elite group.

I can agree with most of your observations at this point though I like our DE potential better than you do and our safties should held the run D a bit. Linebackers are a wildcard and DTs just look soft. Though I expect a better short pass defense this year. We definitely need to gang tackle.

 

[Superself]

Three things:

1. The defensive line rotation has to mitigate losing Suh. There isn't one player who will replace his impact.
2. The defense needs more turnovers.
3. Matt Burke has to make it happen in year 2.

 

[ckparrothead]

Three things:

1. The defensive line rotation has to mitigate losing Suh. There isn't one player who will replace his impact.
2. The defense needs more turnovers.
3. Matt Burke has to make it happen in year 2.

That's the story they're selling. But I think we'd be fools to buy it.

The middle of the defensive line took a serious, serious hit in terms of capability. They're HOPING that a combination of rotation, better defensive end play, and better Mike linebacker play, can make up for it. But that's thin as ****.

We are potentially one injury to Davon Godchaux away from having a defensive front that is as soft as wet toilet paper.

 

[fansinceGWilson]

That's the story they're selling. But I think we'd be fools to buy it.

The middle of the defensive line took a serious, serious hit in terms of capability. They're HOPING that a combination of rotation, better defensive end play, and better Mike linebacker play, can make up for it. But that's thin as ****.

We are potentially one injury to Davon Godchaux away from having a defensive front that is as soft as wet toilet paper.

The biggest hope I have for the DTs comes from the biggest question. Suh was said, during his time here, too freelance "too much." Was that 3-4 plays a game? Half the plays? Plays at critical times? I don't think any fan knows. How detrimental was the freelancing? Again, no one knows. If his freelancing hurt the D significantly, his lose means less than expected. We won't know how "serious" for a while, but it's reasonable to expect a downgrade.