Vegas line for AZ game... | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Vegas line for AZ game...

Chri$

Chri$

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so we opened as 2.5 point favorites
explain to me how we are now 2 point dogs when AZ is 1-4 on road and we is 5-1 at home?
 
We have a bottom 3 run D in the NFL and David Johnson is coming to town. There is one example.
 
Because all the money is going on Arizona.
 
It's almost like they watched our defense get exposed and completely destroyed by the Ravens offense, which is not as good as the Cardinals. Hmm.
 
Because we are not practicing and have all but thrown in the towel. In other words, the betting public thinks the Dolphins are a bunch of sissies that won't fight.
 
It took 12 games but finally someone exposed the soft middle of the D. Look for that trend to continue, especially against the Cards and Cheaters. Who have smart head coaches.
 
Just noticed the swing myself. Big change very quickly. Nobody believes in the dolphins after last week. Could be a chance for a decent money line win if the trend continues and the Dolphins could pull the upset at home.
 
Fins1971 said:
Just noticed the swing myself. Big change very quickly. Nobody believes in the dolphins after last week. Could be a chance for a decent money line win if the trend continues and the Dolphins could pull the upset at home.
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Honeslty wasnt sure why we were favored to begin with, said that when I saw the opening line.
 
I'm surprised we were ever favored - obviously everyone else thought the same the way the line shifted.
 
mnphinfan said:
It took 12 games but finally someone exposed the soft middle of the D.
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Nah, the Rams ran the exact same game plan, but they didn't have the tools to execute it as well.
 
Everyone is taking the cardinals. They want people to take miami
 
miamiron said:
Thank you, I don't believe many people really know how the lines are determined
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For those who don't know the spread is not an estimate of what Vegas or your local bookie thinks the outcome of the game will be. The spread is simply the number estimated that would result in equal about of money to be bet on both teams. For example if you have a room with 100 bettors wagering a total of $1000 on the game your goal is to have $500 on the Cardinals and $500 on the Dolphins. That way you can take the $500 bet on losers, take the vig (10% that goes to the house or bookie) and pay off the winners with the remaining $450. Obviously it's hard to get an exact amount bet on both sides, but you want it as close as possible. If the you get an unbalanced ledger where say $900 is bet on the Dolphins and only $100 is bet on the Cardinals than the house runs the risk of either having a very profitable outcome or a lopsided losing one. The goal is to reduce the risk of the house losing money and assuring a positive outcome.. A balanced ledger should result in the house winning money regardless of the outcome.

In short the spread is a gage of the betting public and really has little to do with the strength or weakness of the two teams.
 
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