The one area where Tebow does well as a QB sanchez also does well and that's playing well late in games.
I am not worried for a second about Tebow ever taking the job from sanchez.
Vegas puts Dolphins over/under win total at 7.5
- Thread starter Nublar7
- Start date
The one area where Tebow does well as a QB sanchez also does well and that's playing well late in games.
I am not worried for a second about Tebow ever taking the job from sanchez.
SuperMarksBros.
Formerly Fiedler for MVP
You should be, and not because Tebow is some savior or Sanchize sucks, but more due to the pressures that will be put on your team by fans, media, tebowites, etc if Sanchez slips. Its going to be a circus, and the only fans that dont see that are Jet fans.
it's been a circus for most of the last 3 years, last year was the least circus like atmosphere around the team so maybe it's a good thing?
More joints have put these up now. The Dolphins are as low as 7 flat, which means equal juice on the over and under.
MGM Mirage put up Miami at 7 flat.
I guess I should detail the lingo a little bit, since most posters don't gamble. The term "7 over" means 7 over -120 and under Even money. At "7.5 under" it means 7.5 under -120 and over Even money. Then it can be taken further to "7.5 under a quarter" which is 7.5 under -125 and over +105. And so forth.
Earlier in the thread somebody claimed to have bet $2500 on Miami over 7.5 -110 once the initial number from Cantor Gaming was publicized. I seriously doubt that wager was placed. On sports forums hyperbole like that is commonplace, apparently to make a point and impress somebody. Those numbers weren't even bettable online at that stage. I don't even see them now at the major offshore joints. Unless the person was in Nevada, or had connections, it was an air wager.
I certainly hope it was an air wager. Otherwise it was beyond senseless to jump on the first number available, which was a terrible price to begin with. The number figured to be 7 over or 7.5 under. He may be the only person on the planet with a ticket on the Dolphins over 7.5 and giving -110 juice. A major part of the battle is using instinct and beating the price.
The LVH (formerly called the Las Vegas Hilton) followed by putting Miami at 7.5 under -120. (Over even money)
LVH used New England at 12.5, not 11.5 like MGM Mirage or 12 like Cantor Gaming. Jay Kornegay runs LVH and is a sharp guy. Years ago he was at Imperial Palace, popularizing the expansion of Super Bowl props. Kornegay has talked about the absurd imbalance in the league in this era, with the deep runs at unbeaten. He always hangs that prop early. I wasn't surprised he shaded New England high.
Two friends and I got a number we were desperately looking for at MGM Mirage. They hung Cleveland at 6 under. God bless them. If that team wins 7 times in 16 games I'm willing to lose. LVH already agreed with our assessment, using Cleveland at 4.5 over. So that's a middle opportunity if we want it.
MGM Mirage put up Miami at 7 flat.
I guess I should detail the lingo a little bit, since most posters don't gamble. The term "7 over" means 7 over -120 and under Even money. At "7.5 under" it means 7.5 under -120 and over Even money. Then it can be taken further to "7.5 under a quarter" which is 7.5 under -125 and over +105. And so forth.
Earlier in the thread somebody claimed to have bet $2500 on Miami over 7.5 -110 once the initial number from Cantor Gaming was publicized. I seriously doubt that wager was placed. On sports forums hyperbole like that is commonplace, apparently to make a point and impress somebody. Those numbers weren't even bettable online at that stage. I don't even see them now at the major offshore joints. Unless the person was in Nevada, or had connections, it was an air wager.
I certainly hope it was an air wager. Otherwise it was beyond senseless to jump on the first number available, which was a terrible price to begin with. The number figured to be 7 over or 7.5 under. He may be the only person on the planet with a ticket on the Dolphins over 7.5 and giving -110 juice. A major part of the battle is using instinct and beating the price.
The LVH (formerly called the Las Vegas Hilton) followed by putting Miami at 7.5 under -120. (Over even money)
LVH used New England at 12.5, not 11.5 like MGM Mirage or 12 like Cantor Gaming. Jay Kornegay runs LVH and is a sharp guy. Years ago he was at Imperial Palace, popularizing the expansion of Super Bowl props. Kornegay has talked about the absurd imbalance in the league in this era, with the deep runs at unbeaten. He always hangs that prop early. I wasn't surprised he shaded New England high.
Two friends and I got a number we were desperately looking for at MGM Mirage. They hung Cleveland at 6 under. God bless them. If that team wins 7 times in 16 games I'm willing to lose. LVH already agreed with our assessment, using Cleveland at 4.5 over. So that's a middle opportunity if we want it.
Thanks Awsi but I am a little confused. Using the example of the $2500 bet on the over for the Phins, how does that -120 fit the scheme and how could you deduct that that could not have been a legitimate bet?
5Dimes has the numbers up now. Miami is 7.5 under -145, with a 30 cent line hence the over is +115.
Check the "Props" box under Football, then scroll down.
That's all I meant by my previous posts, that the Dolphin number figured to settle between 7 over and 7.5 under. No need to rush and jump in on a bad number, considering the devastating impact on value. For example, regarding the $2500 number mentioned earlier in this thread: At -110 juice on the over, the Cantor opening number, it would take $2750 to return $2500 profit. Wait a week (or many) for more places to put it up, and you can grab a 7 flat, or a number like +115 at 5Dimes. The same $2750 at +115 instead of -110 returns $3162.50 profit, not $2500. It's like winning an additional $662.50 wager at Even money, simply by getting a decent price instead of a horrendous price.
It took plenty of bad numbers in the '80s for me to catch on. I remember giving the -14 opening number on the Tampa Bay Bandits against Memphis in a USFL game, only to sit in horror all week back in Los Angeles as the spread plummeted to 13, 12, 11, and finally down to 10.
Luckily Steve Spurrier decided to run a reverse to Gary Anderson from midfield with a minute remaining, and then have Anderson punch it in from the 5 on the next play instead of kneeling down. All was forgiven, and every number covered. :D
Check the "Props" box under Football, then scroll down.
That's all I meant by my previous posts, that the Dolphin number figured to settle between 7 over and 7.5 under. No need to rush and jump in on a bad number, considering the devastating impact on value. For example, regarding the $2500 number mentioned earlier in this thread: At -110 juice on the over, the Cantor opening number, it would take $2750 to return $2500 profit. Wait a week (or many) for more places to put it up, and you can grab a 7 flat, or a number like +115 at 5Dimes. The same $2750 at +115 instead of -110 returns $3162.50 profit, not $2500. It's like winning an additional $662.50 wager at Even money, simply by getting a decent price instead of a horrendous price.
It took plenty of bad numbers in the '80s for me to catch on. I remember giving the -14 opening number on the Tampa Bay Bandits against Memphis in a USFL game, only to sit in horror all week back in Los Angeles as the spread plummeted to 13, 12, 11, and finally down to 10.
Luckily Steve Spurrier decided to run a reverse to Gary Anderson from midfield with a minute remaining, and then have Anderson punch it in from the 5 on the next play instead of kneeling down. All was forgiven, and every number covered. :D
Burlington-phin
Practice Squad
over
ckparrothead
Premium Member
I could read about this stuff all day.
You mentioned you found -120 on the under on the Browns at 6.0 wins...are you particularly low on them?
Because I have to be honest, I'm looking at certain players on that team and seeing a team I might want to visit with a few times in their weekly spreads. You mentioned before you can't just add up all the games where teams are favored and not in order to get an over/under...I'm pretty aware of that I think, but I also think it's a fun way to look at things. So far Cantor doesn't have Cleveland favored in a single game. I plan on taking advantage of that, personally.
But thing is, I saw the over/under set at 5.5 (never found a 6.0, kudos on finding that)...and even being more bullish on them than I feel most people are...I don't want the over on that. I certainly wouldn't want the over on 6.0. That's just a team I would rather take advantage of on the weekly lines right at the beginning of the year, them being better right away than I think they're given credit for being, and then I'd just have to feel them out on the rest of the season...but there's a good chance I'd want to escape with some early money and then back off them.
I mean, you complain about teams that throw 40 times with "mush" quarterbacks...this is not a team that will do that. This a team that hoss'd up with Peyton Hillis in 2010 when it was possible to do so. They called plays as if they were scared to let Colt McCoy make a play (not without reason). Now they've got Trent Richardson and not only will they let him be the hoss, they'll throw a lot of screens to him too. Richardson is not Mark Ingram. He's physically stupendous, the best I've seen since Adrian Peterson, who was the best I ever saw (since I wasn't evaluating when Barry hit the Draft).
And maybe I'm biased because I've been evaluating the guy for two years and absolutely love his talent level, but I don't think they have a mush quarterback, either. Weeden was in my opinion particularly dangerous at Oklahoma State recognizing defenses as he walked up to the line and changing to the appropriate built in run plays which resulted in a tailback like Joseph Randle (who is built like a wide receiver) having an Emmitt Smith-like 24 touchdown runs not to mention nearly 6 yards per carry. That's unusual production relative to Joseph Randle's talent, in my opinion, and I believe you can lay that at the quarterback's feet.
Watching how the defense is set up...it's familiar. It's so similar to back in the early 2000's with the way Miami played. A lot of shell with aggressive coverage, a lot of relying on the defensive line to get after the quarterback. Would it shock you if I felt the Cleveland Browns' secondary in 2011 was somewhere in the top three among NFL secondaries that I studied? Dimitri Patterson was an inspired slot corner. T.J. Ward is a good safety. Joe Haden is an elite corner. The weakness was Sheldon Brown but he wasn't as weak as you see in other secondaries and they kept safeties over top of him anyway. On the DL, they just lost Phil Taylor for an unknown amount of time. A big blow and one I definitely have to take account of. But Ahtyba Rubin was the sempai in that relationship anyway. Jabaal Sheard is a stud. They have under appreciated upside surprise baked in with Marcus Benard who is healthy after a motorcycle accident, and should provide a lot of pass rush juice on nickel downs. The linebackers unit is led by D'Qwell Jackson, who is back to form. They just added my second favorite inside linebacker in the Draft, James-Michael Johnson.
You complained about the lack of contrast in the league. To me, Cleveland is that contrast. They're the team that will pound the ball at you with the best rookie tailback I've seen since Peterson, pass the ball to an unusually talented and athletic group of tight ends (the three of which are faster than many of their wide receivers) and then play frustrating Miami-style shell pass defense that keeps opposing offenses off the fast-track that seems so chic nowadays.
As I said before, I don't like an over on 6 wins. If you found the under on that, that's a good bet. But you mentioned seeing a 4.5. I personally wasn't planning on taking an over/under on that team, but if I saw the 4.5, the over might tempt me.
ck, personnel analysis doesn't play a major role in preseason over/unders, not the way my friends and I look at it. It's value and leverage. We weren't going to play Cleveland under unless we found a 6. We certainly didn't expect to locate 6. Cantor went first and put up 5.5. I damn near posted in that thread that I was looking for under 6 on Cleveland but I canceled that sentence at the last minute. My friend Dave was paranoid at anything we used to say on the radio and now he wants nothing divulged on the internet if he has any stake. I tell him he's nuts but there have been a few times he's ranted when stuff I've posted online has made it's way to one of the sports betting sites. There's a guy named Kaufmann in Las Vegas who walks around with a briefcase over his shoulder and specializes in middling over/unders and props and early spreads. Huge bettor. Doesn't like day to day stuff but works months in advance. If it's mid football season he's prioritizing basketball props. He apparently locates the internet handles of certain guys and tries to find out what they are looking for, then pounces early. We've had him taunt us, flashing limit tickets on numbers he grabbed before we knew they were up. Luckily he's a cool guy who smiles and will ask you to a comped meal all the time. But it still stings when he cashes tickets we should have had. Granted, stealing online material has diminished now that LasVegasAdvisor.com forum has changed. That used to be the wise guy hangout. I swiped more angles than I contributed, particularly regarding college basketball. Now it's a stuffy pay site run by Steve Fezzik, who is an incredibly arrogant local gambler who wins so much I can't criticize him as much as I'd prefer. Fezzik ignored pass attempt differential for many years but now he's reluctantly caught onto that. We really should have shut up. He's won the famed Hilton NFL handicapping contest more than once, and with very high percentages.
Anyway, Cleveland under 6 was an automatic play because it had to go down. Keep in mind we aren't looking for a winning bet as much as a tremendous edge in comparison to the closing number. It's the same philosophy in betting the early numbers every week. Generally Dave makes the parameters, with input from me. College games have wider disparity so I'll use an example there. Let's say TCU is hosting Baylor. Our sheet will say, "TCU -10" on the bottom, and "Baylor +22" on top. That means we are looking for -10 or lower on TCU or +22 or higher on Baylor. Friends look at our sheet down the line and think it's a colossal waste of time, that none of the numbers will show up. But invariably a half dozen or more of them do surface. And once we grab them those are the ones that move wildly in our direction. You'll sit there on Saturday with -16 on the original side and +20 the other way. Middles can salvage a season even if the systems and subjective handicapping have awful years. When everything clicks...bonanza.
MGM Mirage put up Cleveland at 6 under -120. Fortunately we got a tip when those numbers would go up. My friend grabbed it for us. Rookie quarterbacks draw under money and are invariably underdogs, even at home. If the bet looks bad and we're forced to hedge, most likely we'll be getting points. In other words, Cleveland has 5 wins and we need them to lose. If we take Cleveland +7 and they happen to lose by 1-6, the over/under is gold plus we collected on the hedge. I haven't looked at the schedule to refer to a specific game. But the last thing we want is an under bet and our team becomes a favorite week after week, or an over and we're stuck with a team getting points. Hedging opportunity is severely diminished. Let's just say we were thrilled when Kornegay at LVH hung up Cleveland at 4.5, lower than anyone else. Their opinion holds weight.
I agree with you that Cleveland likely will run the ball often with Richardson, and not fall into the mush trap that I prefer when betting against. The three of us talked about that. It wasn't even necessary. We've known each other for 20+ years, and all the biases and angles that each one of us favor. It's not a perfect bet. As I've mentioned for several years, I prefer the "bounce" unders, when a fraud team jumps from let's say 5 wins to 11, then you can wager under 9 or thereabouts the following year. My good friend Larry Matthews turned me onto that trend years and years ago. He was a sad Las Vegas victim, apparently taken out to the desert and murdered in spring 2004. Still unsolved, as far as I know. I gave all the info I had to a missing person's detective and later a homicide detective. Larry bragged about his bankroll far too much. In his final months he insisted that Dallas under the season win total in 2004 was the greatest bet he'd seen in years. How right he was, even though he never saw it. I thought about that a few days ago, while watching the Cowboys' Hard Knocks season of 2002 on NFL Network.
Bottom line the simple approach works best in what we do. I've deleted literally hundreds of situational and statistical angles from my Excel spreadsheets because they were conflicting with great foundational stuff that still works. If something is 375-249 over 20 years that's plenty. I don't want to fret over a low sample obscure trend that is 19-8 and tilts the other way.
Weakest team in a tough division with rookie quarterback warrants under 6. Take our chances. I have a few months to decide if I'll play for the middle on my split. Some joints update those over/unders weekly during the first couple of weeks, so you can "see" a game or two before committing.
Also, Miami is now +130 on over 7.5 at many spots, including 5Dimes.eu. I warned it was best to wait on that one.
Anyway, Cleveland under 6 was an automatic play because it had to go down. Keep in mind we aren't looking for a winning bet as much as a tremendous edge in comparison to the closing number. It's the same philosophy in betting the early numbers every week. Generally Dave makes the parameters, with input from me. College games have wider disparity so I'll use an example there. Let's say TCU is hosting Baylor. Our sheet will say, "TCU -10" on the bottom, and "Baylor +22" on top. That means we are looking for -10 or lower on TCU or +22 or higher on Baylor. Friends look at our sheet down the line and think it's a colossal waste of time, that none of the numbers will show up. But invariably a half dozen or more of them do surface. And once we grab them those are the ones that move wildly in our direction. You'll sit there on Saturday with -16 on the original side and +20 the other way. Middles can salvage a season even if the systems and subjective handicapping have awful years. When everything clicks...bonanza.
MGM Mirage put up Cleveland at 6 under -120. Fortunately we got a tip when those numbers would go up. My friend grabbed it for us. Rookie quarterbacks draw under money and are invariably underdogs, even at home. If the bet looks bad and we're forced to hedge, most likely we'll be getting points. In other words, Cleveland has 5 wins and we need them to lose. If we take Cleveland +7 and they happen to lose by 1-6, the over/under is gold plus we collected on the hedge. I haven't looked at the schedule to refer to a specific game. But the last thing we want is an under bet and our team becomes a favorite week after week, or an over and we're stuck with a team getting points. Hedging opportunity is severely diminished. Let's just say we were thrilled when Kornegay at LVH hung up Cleveland at 4.5, lower than anyone else. Their opinion holds weight.
I agree with you that Cleveland likely will run the ball often with Richardson, and not fall into the mush trap that I prefer when betting against. The three of us talked about that. It wasn't even necessary. We've known each other for 20+ years, and all the biases and angles that each one of us favor. It's not a perfect bet. As I've mentioned for several years, I prefer the "bounce" unders, when a fraud team jumps from let's say 5 wins to 11, then you can wager under 9 or thereabouts the following year. My good friend Larry Matthews turned me onto that trend years and years ago. He was a sad Las Vegas victim, apparently taken out to the desert and murdered in spring 2004. Still unsolved, as far as I know. I gave all the info I had to a missing person's detective and later a homicide detective. Larry bragged about his bankroll far too much. In his final months he insisted that Dallas under the season win total in 2004 was the greatest bet he'd seen in years. How right he was, even though he never saw it. I thought about that a few days ago, while watching the Cowboys' Hard Knocks season of 2002 on NFL Network.
Bottom line the simple approach works best in what we do. I've deleted literally hundreds of situational and statistical angles from my Excel spreadsheets because they were conflicting with great foundational stuff that still works. If something is 375-249 over 20 years that's plenty. I don't want to fret over a low sample obscure trend that is 19-8 and tilts the other way.
Weakest team in a tough division with rookie quarterback warrants under 6. Take our chances. I have a few months to decide if I'll play for the middle on my split. Some joints update those over/unders weekly during the first couple of weeks, so you can "see" a game or two before committing.
Also, Miami is now +130 on over 7.5 at many spots, including 5Dimes.eu. I warned it was best to wait on that one.
Austin Tatious
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Mad dog, what do you do in Italy if you don't mind my asking? Are you coming back soon?
ckparrothead
Premium Member
Beautiful. Like I said, I could read this stuff all day. I love it.