We need "depth", lets trade down, we have to many holes...

[NBP81]

I see alot of posts expressing that line of thinking and TBH I cant see the logic behind it... First of all, there are 2 options when it comes to aquiring players, FA and the draft, which are both capped, 7 picks and a salary cap. One is a bidding auction on players who have played in the NFL for 4 years, while the other is a lottery skewed to favor teams with a lower level of talent.
Holes: This is a position where you have no decent starting material whatsoever.
Depth: Where you do have decent starting material but nobody competent enough to back them up.

Now my question is this.... Would you rather fill your holes with players you have 4 years worth of tape on in the NFL, or the lottery?
IMO fixing holes is not what I would use the lottery for, alas Thomas being our starting guard at the moment is disturbing. There were opportunities to pick someone at the very least decent for a reasonable price to at least not make this an urgent ****ing situation and we didnt. But it doesnt mean we should draft a guard 1st round because of that. We should draft the best player available thats either fixing a hole or adding great depth... In football, you need depth everywhere, while you might think to yourself that there are positions that are more prone to be hit by injuries, its still a crap as to what position is going to need that depth during the season.
So basically, you should plug your holes in FA with average starting material who you should be able to get at real market value as the 1st tier of FA as already passed AND try and find a superstar in the draft(Who will play for peanuts for the first 4 years of his contract).
So how do you find a superstar in the draft? you might ask... There is nothing surefire 100% in the NFL draft, there is always bust potential. But you sure as hell got a better shot at it the sooner you draft... Beyond round 2, its hopes and dreams... The system works to give weaker teams better draft picks, and yet some of those teams end up trading their better opportunity at elite level talent for more opportunities at weaker players... Its ****ing insane...

 

[zach attach]

Agreed. If there is a player at 5, there's a reason for it. If the scouting, and GM are both talented as well, then you build great teams. You can't compare a Wolf to an Ireland. All said, I hope we draft at 14 or higher depending on the talent.

 

[normaldude]

Now my question is this.... Would you rather fill your holes with players you have 4 years worth of tape on in the NFL, or the lottery?

Proven NFL veterans cost a lot more than draft picks.

For example, would you rather have..

a) WR Odell Beckham Jr (12th overall pick) for $2.5 million/yr

b) WR Michael Crabtree for $3.5 million/yr

We're operating with a salary cap. And while we can afford to draft WR Amari Cooper, the NFL veteran equivalent would basically break the bank.

 

[Bumpus]

Well stated! I'm convinced ... Let's go get a stud!

 

[NBP81]

Proven NFL veterans cost a lot more than draft picks.

For example, would you rather have..

a) WR Odell Beckham Jr (12th overall pick) for $2.5 million/yr

b) WR Michael Crabtree for $3.5 million/yr

We're operating with a salary cap. And while we can afford to draft WR Amari Cooper, the NFL veteran equivalent would basically break the bank.

sorry bout that... didnt know Crabtree signed a 3.5MIL/year contract... my bad...EDIT: And you say that in hindsight, OB has a year in the pros right now so you cant compare him to a rookie class...

 

[normaldude]

sorry bout that... didnt know Crabtree signed a 3.5MIL/year contract... my bad...

No, that's basically what it will take to sign him. We offered $3 million. He wants $3.5 million. If we want Crabtree, he'll cost $3.5 million. But even he agrees to our $3 million, that's still very expensive compared to what you have to pay for drafted WRs.

Given the salary cap, it is literally impossible for Miami to sign a stud veteran WR this year. We can afford Michael Crabtree, Greg Jennings, Amari Cooper, Kevin White, DeVante Parker. They will all cost about the same amount of money.

 

[NBP81]

No, that's basically what it will take to sign him. We offered $3 million. He wants $3.5 million. If we want Crabtree, he'll cost $3.5 million. But even he agrees to our $3 million, that's still very expensive compared to what you have to pay for drafted WRs.

Given the salary cap, it is literally impossible for Miami to sign a stud veteran WR this year. We can afford Michael Crabtree, Greg Jennings, Amari Cooper, Kevin White, DeVante Parker. They will all cost about the same amount of money.

and a trade down wont secure any of them...

 

[normaldude]

and a trade down wont secure any of them...

My point is that we don't have the cap space to fill our holes with veteran starters. We might be able to sign 1-2 more veteran starters (Greg Jennings level of talent), and the rest of the holes have to be filled with draft picks.

 

[NBP81]

My point is that we don't have the cap space to fill our holes with veteran starters. We might be able to sign 1-2 more veteran starters (Greg Jennings level of talent), and the rest of the holes have to be filled with draft picks.

What Im saying is if you get to the point where you try to fill holes through the draft, your not thinking straight. The draft is the only way to get your hands on elite talent for negligible impact on your salary cap... And that trading down just makes you less likely to get your hands on such talent... Average players=dime a dozen..... elite players making less money than average NFL veterans=early 1st round picks...

 

[normaldude]

What Im saying is if you get to the point where you try to fill holes through the draft, your not thinking straight. The draft is the only way to get your hands on elite talent for negligible impact on your salary cap... And that trading down just makes you less likely to get your hands on such talent... Average players=dime a dozen..... elite players making less money than average NFL veterans=early 1st round picks...

I have no problem with Miami trading up to grab Amari Cooper or Kevin White. But sometimes you just can't find a trade partner.

So it's possible that we'll be stuck at #14. Maybe Amari Cooper, Kevin White, DeVante Parker, Brandon Scherff are all taken early. And at that point, trading back into the latter part of the 1st round, and picking up an extra 2nd rd pick, is not a bad move (if available).

 

[Kornnut]

Everything isn't going to be fixed in one year. Very few teams don't have any holes or plenty of depth. I say swing for the fences. I say trade jordan daily but will be the first to admit I loved the move. It's a different front office now and maybe we can get it right.

 

[j-off-her-doll]

I agree with the thinking here, NPB81. The draft is the only "inexpensive" way to acquire premium talent. The draft is basically a lottery, where you can increase your odds by solving puzzles. If you have a good system in place, you'll hit at a higher rate. If you go into the draft with the mindset of filling holes, you're already behind the 8-ball. It's basically like taking bad loan.

 

[NMB Fin]

hate this soft mentality, people say this because they feel they are supposed to.....draft stud playmakers, period

 

[Fin Thirteen]

All of this depends heavily on where you're picking and how deep the draft is in a given year.

But drafting for value is a better way of doing it that having a trade-down policy. The Ravens' drafting ability gets a bit overblown, but they do know how to find value at their given pick.

Just last season, the value pick for us in Round 1 was Teddy Bridgewater. Teddy fell because he didn't wear his gloves at his pro-day. He should have gone #1. That kind of groupthink is what you need to exploit. But you have to be prepared to take a player where you don't have a big hole. And taking Teddy last season in round one would have required giant testicular fortitude by a first year GM. It was still the right pick and is indicative of the thinking you have to have if you want to reduce risk in the draft and truly improve your roster.

 

[Bumpus]

All of this depends heavily on where you're picking and how deep the draft is in a given year.

But drafting for value is a better way of doing it that having a trade-down policy. The Ravens' drafting ability gets a bit overblown, but they do know how to find value at their given pick.

Just last season, the value pick for us in Round 1 was Teddy Bridgewater. Teddy fell because he didn't wear his gloves at his pro-day. He should have gone #1. That kind of groupthink is what you need to exploit. But you have to be prepared to take a player where you don't have a big hole. And taking Teddy last season in round one would have required giant testicular fortitude by a first year GM. It was still the right pick and is indicative of the thinking you have to have if you want to reduce risk in the draft and truly improve your roster.

That's one way of looking at it ... Another way of saying that might be "head-up-ass-syndrome"


That would not have been the right pick BECAUSE it would not have truly improved our roster.