We need more play-action to help Tua

[Awsi Dooger]

This thread is primarily four related links. Yesterday it was obvious Gailey was trying to figure out ways to benefit Tua. Early in the game it was quick passes, which many of us had suggested following the Broncos game. Then second half the solution was uptempo. That's fine. It worked in a short sample. But for a team with a rookie quarterback and separation-challenged wide receivers, the best big picture tonic is greater use of play action. The league is steadily figuring out the immense value of play action, regardless of your caliber of running game. But the Dolphins are being left behind, near the bottom of the league in terms of play action passes.

First, this link from 2020 draft analysis. Tua had the highest percentage of play action passes among the 2020 top draft eligible quarterbacks. It was 46%. Saban and Alabama are way ahead of the curve in terms of helping out the quarterback and passing game. If it doesn't link directly, go to the "Play Environment" tab, or scroll that tab right to "Play Action %":



Now an August 2020 link from 538. It primarily focuses on wide receiver separation. But when I saved this link in August I was most struck by the big picture summation from the chart at center of the link, titled: "Play-action creates separation no matter who is targeted":

Our New Metric Shows How Good NFL Receivers Are At Creating Separation

Is Michael Thomas elite? On its face, that seems like an outrageous question. Michael Thomas, the New Orleans wide receiver who led the NFL in receiving yards a…

fivethirtyeight.com

Here's a 538 articles from earlier this season, evaluating the reasons for the upticked scoring in the NFL. It includes this paragraph:

"Finally, play-action is up 5.6 percentage points since 2010. So far in 2020, the league average play-action pass has been worth an incredible 0.25 expected points added per play, making it the most valuable play type in football. Any increase in play-action rate leaguewide is likely to lead to higher scoring."

Scoring Is Way Up In The NFL. Which Teams Does That Help?

There has been more pre-snap motion, play-action and fourth-down conversion attempts.

fivethirtyeight.com

However, this final link demonstrates the Dolphins under Chan Gailey are stodgy and being left behind. Entering yesterday there were only 69 play action passes, near the bottom of the league and basically half of the number of teams like the Rams and Titans. I don't think this will link directly to the category. If not, go to "Play Type" tab and click, then sort under "PlayAction." Click "PassAtt" and it will sort either high to low or low to high, depending on your preference. The Steelers with a defense of that caliber don't care about play action but other teams are making great use. It is also interesting to see how some teams like the Rams and Browns don't care about RPO. Neither one has thrown an RPO pass all season. Buffalo is extremely interesting, with Daboll helping out Josh Allen with high combined numbers of play action plus RPO, but tilted heavily toward play action. And no excuse to Carson Wentz. The Eagles have very number of play action plus RPO. Most interesting of all may be the Chiefs and Cardinals. They have a distinct blueprint that is totally different than any other teams, given their mobile quarterbacks. The combined play action plus RPO pass numbers are extremely high, but there is a much greater tilt toward RPO than other teams, with the play action number not dramatically higher than RPO passes. Buffalo is 122 play action passes and 44 passes from RPO, while Kansas City's ratio is 88-70 and Arizona at 94-82. The Dolphins are 69-20:

2020 NFL Advanced Stats | Pro-Football-Reference.com

2020 NFL Advanced Stats

www.pro-football-reference.com

I've got other things going on. Four family members among seven tested positive, after a Thanksgiving get together. Not myself. I always wore two masks. Two are symptom free but two having problems. Fortunately they are younger...19 and 44. I'm helping out so I don't have much time to post but I thought I'd drop this here since it seemed so obvious after yesterday.

 

[Pachyderm_Wave]

That's a little ambitious for some around here. Not even crayons and cuties would work for a lot of 'em.

 

[Sirspud]

Tua’s floor is just below Fitz’s ceiling.

the difference is, Fitz gets to his ceiling with reckless throws and luck. Tua’s floor is based on an over abundance of caution.

Tua's floor is Denver.

You act like throwing nice passes in the second half, which he did, has suddenly cured his ills. He didn't face much pass rush, and the only times he had more than one rusher his holding the ball hadn't changed. The guy is still an adventure in the pocket.

How many times were we on the brink of the playoffs with RT, only to have him bust out performances like Denver where he could barely even get a pass off? We can hope Tua gets better, but since in two out of five starts that's what he was, that's his floor.

I get excited when I see Tua’s upside, but until he goes up against a defense that brings consistent pressure from multiple angles and still leads consistent drives, we really can't make assumptions about what he will ultimately be. And there's no guarantee he ever does that since if every young qb fixed their weaknesses with time we wouldn't have busts.

 

[Danny]

This thread is primarily four related links. Yesterday it was obvious Gailey was trying to figure out ways to benefit Tua. Early in the game it was quick passes, which many of us had suggested following the Broncos game. Then second half the solution was uptempo. That's fine. It worked in a short sample. But for a team with a rookie quarterback and separation-challenged wide receivers, the best big picture tonic is greater use of play action. The league is steadily figuring out the immense value of play action, regardless of your caliber of running game. But the Dolphins are being left behind, near the bottom of the league in terms of play action passes.

First, this link from 2020 draft analysis. Tua had the highest percentage of play action passes among the 2020 top draft eligible quarterbacks. It was 46%. Saban and Alabama are way ahead of the curve in terms of helping out the quarterback and passing game. If it doesn't link directly, go to the "Play Environment" tab, or scroll that tab right to "Play Action %":



Now an August 2020 link from 538. It primarily focuses on wide receiver separation. But when I saved this link in August I was most struck by the big picture summation from the chart at center of the link, titled: "Play-action creates separation no matter who is targeted":

Our New Metric Shows How Good NFL Receivers Are At Creating Separation

Is Michael Thomas elite? On its face, that seems like an outrageous question. Michael Thomas, the New Orleans wide receiver who led the NFL in receiving yards a…

fivethirtyeight.com

Here's a 538 articles from earlier this season, evaluating the reasons for the upticked scoring in the NFL. It includes this paragraph:

"Finally, play-action is up 5.6 percentage points since 2010. So far in 2020, the league average play-action pass has been worth an incredible 0.25 expected points added per play, making it the most valuable play type in football. Any increase in play-action rate leaguewide is likely to lead to higher scoring."

Scoring Is Way Up In The NFL. Which Teams Does That Help?

There has been more pre-snap motion, play-action and fourth-down conversion attempts.

fivethirtyeight.com

However, this final link demonstrates the Dolphins under Chan Gailey are stodgy and being left behind. Entering yesterday there were only 69 play action passes, near the bottom of the league and basically half of the number of teams like the Rams and Titans. I don't think this will link directly to the category. If not, go to "Play Type" tab and click, then sort under "PlayAction." Click "PassAtt" and it will sort either high to low or low to high, depending on your preference. The Steelers with a defense of that caliber don't care about play action but other teams are making great use. It is also interesting to see how some teams like the Rams and Browns don't care about RPO. Neither one has thrown an RPO pass all season. Buffalo is extremely interesting, with Daboll helping out Josh Allen with high combined numbers of play action plus RPO, but tilted heavily toward play action. And no excuse to Carson Wentz. The Eagles have very number of play action plus RPO. Most interesting of all may be the Chiefs and Cardinals. They have a distinct blueprint that is totally different than any other teams, given their mobile quarterbacks. The combined play action plus RPO pass numbers are extremely high, but there is a much greater tilt toward RPO than other teams, with the play action number not dramatically higher than RPO passes. Buffalo is 122 play action passes and 44 passes from RPO, while Kansas City's ratio is 88-70 and Arizona at 94-82. The Dolphins are 69-20:

2020 NFL Advanced Stats | Pro-Football-Reference.com

2020 NFL Advanced Stats

www.pro-football-reference.com

I've got other things going on. Four family members among seven tested positive, after a Thanksgiving get together. Not myself. I always wore two masks. Two are symptom free but two having problems. Fortunately they are younger...19 and 44. I'm helping out so I don't have much time to post but I thought I'd drop this here since it seemed so obvious after yesterday.

Thanks for posting. Hope your family members get better soon.

 

[Rowdy1972]

This thread is primarily four related links. Yesterday it was obvious Gailey was trying to figure out ways to benefit Tua. Early in the game it was quick passes, which many of us had suggested following the Broncos game. Then second half the solution was uptempo. That's fine. It worked in a short sample. But for a team with a rookie quarterback and separation-challenged wide receivers, the best big picture tonic is greater use of play action. The league is steadily figuring out the immense value of play action, regardless of your caliber of running game. But the Dolphins are being left behind, near the bottom of the league in terms of play action passes.

First, this link from 2020 draft analysis. Tua had the highest percentage of play action passes among the 2020 top draft eligible quarterbacks. It was 46%. Saban and Alabama are way ahead of the curve in terms of helping out the quarterback and passing game. If it doesn't link directly, go to the "Play Environment" tab, or scroll that tab right to "Play Action %":



Now an August 2020 link from 538. It primarily focuses on wide receiver separation. But when I saved this link in August I was most struck by the big picture summation from the chart at center of the link, titled: "Play-action creates separation no matter who is targeted":

Our New Metric Shows How Good NFL Receivers Are At Creating Separation

Is Michael Thomas elite? On its face, that seems like an outrageous question. Michael Thomas, the New Orleans wide receiver who led the NFL in receiving yards a…

fivethirtyeight.com

Here's a 538 articles from earlier this season, evaluating the reasons for the upticked scoring in the NFL. It includes this paragraph:

"Finally, play-action is up 5.6 percentage points since 2010. So far in 2020, the league average play-action pass has been worth an incredible 0.25 expected points added per play, making it the most valuable play type in football. Any increase in play-action rate leaguewide is likely to lead to higher scoring."

Scoring Is Way Up In The NFL. Which Teams Does That Help?

There has been more pre-snap motion, play-action and fourth-down conversion attempts.

fivethirtyeight.com

However, this final link demonstrates the Dolphins under Chan Gailey are stodgy and being left behind. Entering yesterday there were only 69 play action passes, near the bottom of the league and basically half of the number of teams like the Rams and Titans. I don't think this will link directly to the category. If not, go to "Play Type" tab and click, then sort under "PlayAction." Click "PassAtt" and it will sort either high to low or low to high, depending on your preference. The Steelers with a defense of that caliber don't care about play action but other teams are making great use. It is also interesting to see how some teams like the Rams and Browns don't care about RPO. Neither one has thrown an RPO pass all season. Buffalo is extremely interesting, with Daboll helping out Josh Allen with high combined numbers of play action plus RPO, but tilted heavily toward play action. And no excuse to Carson Wentz. The Eagles have very number of play action plus RPO. Most interesting of all may be the Chiefs and Cardinals. They have a distinct blueprint that is totally different than any other teams, given their mobile quarterbacks. The combined play action plus RPO pass numbers are extremely high, but there is a much greater tilt toward RPO than other teams, with the play action number not dramatically higher than RPO passes. Buffalo is 122 play action passes and 44 passes from RPO, while Kansas City's ratio is 88-70 and Arizona at 94-82. The Dolphins are 69-20:

2020 NFL Advanced Stats | Pro-Football-Reference.com

2020 NFL Advanced Stats

www.pro-football-reference.com

I've got other things going on. Four family members among seven tested positive, after a Thanksgiving get together. Not myself. I always wore two masks. Two are symptom free but two having problems. Fortunately they are younger...19 and 44. I'm helping out so I don't have much time to post but I thought I'd drop this here since it seemed so obvious after yesterday.

WHY WAS THIS MERGED TO THIS DUMPSTER FIRE THREAD? This is good stuff and needs to be on its own. This is a well thought out thread that is going to get lost in all this other bullshit. This is actually educational why most of this other stuff in this thread is the same 6 or 7 posters bitching at each other.

 

[andyahs]

WHY WAS THIS MERGED TO THIS DUMPSTER FIRE THREAD? This is good stuff and needs to be on its own. This is a well thought out thread that is going to get lost in all this other bullshit. This is actually educational why most of this other stuff in this thread is the same 6 or 7 posters bitching at each other.

Agreed. The OP's thread starter and this one don't deserve each other at all.

 

[NBP81]

This thread is primarily four related links. Yesterday it was obvious Gailey was trying to figure out ways to benefit Tua. Early in the game it was quick passes, which many of us had suggested following the Broncos game. Then second half the solution was uptempo. That's fine. It worked in a short sample. But for a team with a rookie quarterback and separation-challenged wide receivers, the best big picture tonic is greater use of play action. The league is steadily figuring out the immense value of play action, regardless of your caliber of running game. But the Dolphins are being left behind, near the bottom of the league in terms of play action passes.

First, this link from 2020 draft analysis. Tua had the highest percentage of play action passes among the 2020 top draft eligible quarterbacks. It was 46%. Saban and Alabama are way ahead of the curve in terms of helping out the quarterback and passing game. If it doesn't link directly, go to the "Play Environment" tab, or scroll that tab right to "Play Action %":



Now an August 2020 link from 538. It primarily focuses on wide receiver separation. But when I saved this link in August I was most struck by the big picture summation from the chart at center of the link, titled: "Play-action creates separation no matter who is targeted":

Our New Metric Shows How Good NFL Receivers Are At Creating Separation

Is Michael Thomas elite? On its face, that seems like an outrageous question. Michael Thomas, the New Orleans wide receiver who led the NFL in receiving yards a…

fivethirtyeight.com

Here's a 538 articles from earlier this season, evaluating the reasons for the upticked scoring in the NFL. It includes this paragraph:

"Finally, play-action is up 5.6 percentage points since 2010. So far in 2020, the league average play-action pass has been worth an incredible 0.25 expected points added per play, making it the most valuable play type in football. Any increase in play-action rate leaguewide is likely to lead to higher scoring."

Scoring Is Way Up In The NFL. Which Teams Does That Help?

There has been more pre-snap motion, play-action and fourth-down conversion attempts.

fivethirtyeight.com

However, this final link demonstrates the Dolphins under Chan Gailey are stodgy and being left behind. Entering yesterday there were only 69 play action passes, near the bottom of the league and basically half of the number of teams like the Rams and Titans. I don't think this will link directly to the category. If not, go to "Play Type" tab and click, then sort under "PlayAction." Click "PassAtt" and it will sort either high to low or low to high, depending on your preference. The Steelers with a defense of that caliber don't care about play action but other teams are making great use. It is also interesting to see how some teams like the Rams and Browns don't care about RPO. Neither one has thrown an RPO pass all season. Buffalo is extremely interesting, with Daboll helping out Josh Allen with high combined numbers of play action plus RPO, but tilted heavily toward play action. And no excuse to Carson Wentz. The Eagles have very number of play action plus RPO. Most interesting of all may be the Chiefs and Cardinals. They have a distinct blueprint that is totally different than any other teams, given their mobile quarterbacks. The combined play action plus RPO pass numbers are extremely high, but there is a much greater tilt toward RPO than other teams, with the play action number not dramatically higher than RPO passes. Buffalo is 122 play action passes and 44 passes from RPO, while Kansas City's ratio is 88-70 and Arizona at 94-82. The Dolphins are 69-20:

2020 NFL Advanced Stats | Pro-Football-Reference.com

2020 NFL Advanced Stats

www.pro-football-reference.com

I've got other things going on. Four family members among seven tested positive, after a Thanksgiving get together. Not myself. I always wore two masks. Two are symptom free but two having problems. Fortunately they are younger...19 and 44. I'm helping out so I don't have much time to post but I thought I'd drop this here since it seemed so obvious after yesterday.

Thats a great post, I've been looking at the Fins splits for a while now and I agree the Fins arent following what works these days offensively... I havent checked after last game but Tua had only attempted 6 passes from RPO, which I find kind of odd given his prior experience... Hell to a point where I wasnt even sure how accurate the stat was since it was so bizarre.

This shouldnt be merge with the all in Tua thread IMO, this post is about alot more than just Tua... These are the thread FH should welcome IMO.

 

[13marino13]

WHY WAS THIS MERGED TO THIS DUMPSTER FIRE THREAD? This is good stuff and needs to be on its own. This is a well thought out thread that is going to get lost in all this other bullshit. This is actually educational why most of this other stuff in this thread is the same 6 or 7 posters bitching at each other.

It was done by mistake, I fixed it. It's a really good thread.

 

[NBP81]

Tua's comp%/YPA/Rating when in and out of PA:

• PA: 69% / 7.4 / 103.5
• Non-PA: 62% / 6.4 / 98.5

 

[Feverdream]

One reason that Tua played with lots of play action in Alabama is because of the facts that 1) He had such a huge talent advantage on his side. His teams were so deep that their opponents literally had no idea what 'Bama would do next. This isn't true now. and 2) Bama has (and had) a power back. Backs like this double or triple the advantage of play action. Smaller backs are tracked down, rather than bullied down... so the LBs can read and react.

It would do little good to go play-action in Miami... this year.

Next year, when we have better/larger RBs... it may not be so.

 

[Dan13Forever]

You spent a lot of time on your post. Thank you.

 

[NBP81]

One reason that Tua played with lots of play action in Alabama is because of the facts that 1) He had such a huge talent advantage on his side. His teams were so deep that their opponents literally had no idea what 'Bama would do next. This isn't true now. and 2) Bama has (and had) a power back. Backs like this double or triple the advantage of play action. Smaller backs are tracked down, rather than bullied down... so the LBs can read and react.

It would do little good to go play-action in Miami... this year.

Next year, when we have better/larger RBs... it may not be so.

Play action success is almost not related to team running ability, its mostly driven by situational play...

 

[Feverdream]

Play action success is almost not related to team running ability, its mostly driven by situational play...

I'll stand on what I said... and politely disagree with you.

 

[Pachyderm_Wave]

Success of play action has nothing to do with the size of the back or the number of stars next to a recruit's name. The integrity of run fits comes first in any structure.

A lot of QB's aren't comfortable with play action because they have to take their eyes off the defense and then get their head around and relocate the safeties. Joe Burrow struggled with this in 2018. That's why they went empty and RPO based in 2019 under Brady.

RPO is just play action while keeping your eyes on the defense and isolating a specific defender.

 

[Pachyderm_Wave]

Play action success is almost not related to team running ability, its mostly driven by situational play...

Try these...