We need one more help for the wild card | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

We need one more help for the wild card

DolfanDaveInMI

DolfanDaveInMI

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Pittsburgh has to beat Baltimore on December 27th.

If Miami and Baltimore run the table and finish 10-6, both teams will have 8-4 records in the conference. However, the next tiebreaker (record against common opponents) would go to Baltimore because they would have three wins (San Diego, Pittsburgh x2) while Miami would only have two (New England, Pittsburgh).

But if Pittsburgh beats Baltimore, we would still be in good shape for the wild card at 9-7 as long as that loss wasn’t to Pittsburgh. We would hold head-to-head advantages over the Jets and Jaguars, we’d have the strength-of-victory tiebreaker over Baltimore, and I see all of the 6-7 teams taking at least one more loss.

With that being said, I'm still holding out hope that New England takes one more loss so we can have a shot at the division. :d-day:
 
i dunno if that tiebreaker would be the next applicable because there are only 2 common opponets, there has to be 4 games that are common for this. The next tiebreaker is strength of victories, alot of our wins are quality wins but im not sure about baltimores so they may be fairly close and depending upon who wins and loses we may have a slight edge assuming we win out.

*edit*

sorry i was wrong about that, there are 4 games applicable, these include san diego, pittsburgh, new england and indy. we would still be tied in these games, as we would end up tied in this tiebreaker as baltimore would have wins over san diego and pittsburgh and we would have wins over pittsburgh and new england. I'm not completely positive on how this tiebreaker though what games it would take from this so i may still be wrong in this regard.
 
IF Miami wins out, and it's really not going to be easy for them to do so, I gotta think at least one of the other 8 games will go our way.... I just don't see New England AND Baltimore both winning out.
 
The most interesting thing about this is that 4 weeks ago many people were laughing at those of us saying we might and will make the playoffs. "There's no chance" "Forget it". Yet here we are.

The greatest thing is that 10-6 3 weeks ago still didn't look good enough. Now the Phins have themselves in position to most likely get a playoff spot if they win out. Also with the way these teams are playing there is NOW a slim but possibly chance that 9-7 could get the phins in.

Cincy definitely has 2 possible losses left on their schedule. With the downward spiral they might be on it isn't far fetched to say they could lose out so that opens another possible door for Miami. If Cincy loses to games and Miami wins out and Balitmore wins out then Cincy is out and Miami is in.

Each week there are more possibilities of the Phins making it.

2 weeks ago it was win and the Phins still might not get on. Now only Baltimore is ahead of the Phins for the 6th seed. It isvery feasible that Miami could catch Cincy/Balt and Denver. So each week as long as Miami wins they could go as high as the #3 seed potentially. They are only 2 games back now of the #3 seed depending on how tie breakers fall.
 
outlawd2u said:
IF Miami wins out, and it's really not going to be easy for them to do so, I gotta think at least one of the other 8 games will go our way.... I just don't see New England AND Baltimore both winning out.
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Don' forget Miami can still catch Denver and Cincy too. There are 4 teams Miami can now feasibly catch. Denver is a stretch but Cincy with games against the Jets and Chargers are now looking like they can be caught.
 
GRYPHONK said:
Don' forget Miami can still catch Denver and Cincy too. There are 4 teams Miami can now feasibly catch. Denver is a stretch but Cincy with games against the Jets and Chargers are now looking like they can be caught.
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I don't know about that, They would only have to lose one to Oak or KC and divisional games are never a walk in the park. With that said I do think the Denver route is the biggest long shot for us.
 
I fear Pitt. If we win vs Ten and Hou We have Pit left. I feel like like they will beat GB, and The Ravens which helps us but that last week we would not be safe. They will be a tough especially if they have a shot into the playoffs.
 
I fear Houston for they may be tougher for us . if we lose to tenn and Houston then I would assume we wont make the playoffs but if we were to sweep the last three games then we got it made .
 
Acefin 500 said:
I fear Houston for they may be tougher for us . if we lose to tenn and Houston then I would assume we wont make the playoffs but if we were to sweep the last three games then we got it made .
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I think in theory you may be right. But I still worry more about Tennessee. It is the 2nd road game in a row. They have been home and just had an easy game. And it's cold. I just think if we can win this one, the closer we get to the end and the more life we have we will play better.
 
If we finish 9-7, as the OP points out the Ravens-Steelers game will be key to our chances. But we'd also need a Jets loss, our own loss can't come to Pittsburgh, and we'd need another Jags loss as well (or else they could win a 3-way tie with Mia and Bal via AFC record, despite our head-to-head edge).

Also keep in mind that the "Denver route" to a wildcard (at 10-6) might work with a Broncos loss to Philadelphia, but that way involves a strength of victory tiebreak that is impossible to predict right now. SOV rarely comes into play, but the Giants won their wildcard in 2006 via SOV over the Packers, so it can happen.
 
RE: Superblammoboy - by the end of the season, Miami and Baltimore will have five games in common. If we both run the table, Baltimore will be 3-2 in those games while Miami will be 2-3 (Baltimore beat Pittsburgh twice while we split with New England).

RE: GRYPHONK - Denver isn't about to lose either of those division games at home, so they'll finish ahead of us on the conference record tiebreaker. Cincinnati wins the North unless Carson Palmer's elbow falls apart.

RE: PhinsPhan122 - tomorrow's game scares me the most too, but not for the reasons you stated. We can run the ball well and we have a cold-weather QB so I think our offense will travel well. My concerns is that we don't set the edge well against the run and teams like that see Chris Johnson's dreads disappear quickly into the horizon. We have to be very disciplined with our run assignments against Tennessee.
 
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