We Win the turnover battle, we win the game!!!

[mnphinfan]

Here is an interesting fact found by Matty over on the Phinsider it is in his article "Dolphins vs Jets: Miami's Keys to Victory". I think this will be the key stat of the game.

http://www.thephinsider.com/2009/10/12/1078335/dolphins-vs-jets-miamis-keys-to#storyjump

Protect the football
This is obviously a key element to every football game. But it's even more important against the Jets.
The Jets have forced 8 turnovers in their first four games. And these forced turnovers help cover up the glaring weakness of this Jets team. The Jets have the 24th ranked offense, averaging just 297 yards per game and 4.8 yards per play. But the key stat that I want to highlight is this: the Jets are ranked 27th in the league in yards gained per drive. They are only gaining 23.26 yards per possession this year. How bad is that? That's 2.5 yards per drive fewer than the Dolphins were gaining during their horrendous 1-15 season and less than one yard greater than the Lions gained last year en route to an 0-16 season.
Over their last two games, the Jets have just one touchdown drive that started on their own side of the 50 yard line. All of their other touchdown drives resulted from good field position thanks to either turnovers or poor punts. Simply put - I'm not convinced the Jets can drive 60 or 70 yards for a touchdown. So the Dolphins have got to protect the football and win the battle of field position. Make Mark Sanchez lead his offense on 70 yard drives - not 30 or 40 yard drives.

I think this really ties into the hidden yardarge that Sparano is talking about. If we can just limit the turnovers and force the Jets into make long, withstanding drives our chance at winning this ball game will be greatly increased.

 

[dainfamusgc]

damn you figured it out now the jets lose 12 in a row

 

[WISfinfan13]

I just started this thread...

http://www.finheaven.com/forums/f2/the-game-tonight-will-be-decided-by-259331.html

 

[jetsattack]

that's not a key stat. that stat is directly influenced by the fact that our defense gives us alot of short fields. so does our special teams.

 

[mnphinfan]

Actually it is a direct stat. It shows that you are unable to sustain long drives. Luckily for you, you haven't had to worry about this because of the turnovers and good special teams play. However, if we don't turn the ball over and play our normal special teams it will lengthen the field for you. Which means you will have to worry about sustaining longer drives for points. Which gives us a better chance to win.

 

[jetsattack]

Actually it is a direct stat. It shows that you are unable to sustain long drives. Luckily for you, you haven't had to worry about this because of the turnovers and good special teams play. However, if we don't turn the ball over and play our normal special teams it will lengthen the field for you. Which means you will have to worry about sustaining longer drives for points. Which gives us a better chance to win.

yeah but how do you sustain long drives when most of your drives are starting wirth such great field position or even on the opponents side of the 50? it's a stat that has been directly affected by the fact that we've had alot of drives start so close to mid-field and/or beyond. lengthening the field for your opponent is part of any teams strategy.....

 

[mnphinfan]

yeah but how do you sustain long drives when most of your drives are starting wirth such great field position or even on the opponents side of the 50? it's a stat that has been directly affected by the fact that we've had alot of drives start so close to mid-field and/or beyond. lengthening the field for your opponent is part of any teams strategy.....

Exactly. That is why we have to lengthen the field.
The most telling stat to this is the 4.8 yards per play. Now our stat is not that much better with a clip of 4.9 yards per play, but you have to look at how many of each plays both teams have ran and then compare the teams.

The Dolphins have ran 147 out of a possible 262 plays giving us the highest #1 rushing offense at 183.5 yards per game at 5.0 yards per carry.

The Jets on the other hand have run 131 out of a possible 241 plays as the leagues 16th ranked rushing offense at 130.5 yards per game and 4.0 yards per carry.

Now I am not going to break down the passing stats as both teams are also farily equal in stats. The Jets throw for 167 yards per game and the Phins throw for 138.

What this shows me is because the stats are so close (and this being a division game we can throw the records out the window) this game is going to come down to a field position/turnover battle. Now I didn't predict we would win these but that if we do we will probably win the game.