Ya i know a lot can happen over the next 5 weeks and I have factored in that Baltimore and Indy are ahead in the tie breakers for now. BUT I'm only sold on Indy getting one of the 2 Wildcard spots leaving one more since Baltimore has a very hard schedule left with WASH, PITTS, and DALLAS. Basically the best chance we have of making the playoffs is the wildcard and we have to win 4 of 5 and NE to lose 2 of 5 OR we win 5 of 5 and NE lose 1 of 5. This will give us a tie in regards to our overall record and lead to these possible scenarios:
**I know we can also have us go 3 of 5 and have NE to go 2 of 5 but its not very likely for NE to lose 3 of 5 having OAK and SEA left to play with 5 games to go. That's pretty much 2 Ws with NE only needing to win 1 more out of 3.
Tie breaker #1 - Head-to-Head:
Tied at 1-1 - Irrelevant
Tie breaker #2 - Division Record:
NE plays one more division game @BUF (Final week)
If we win 5 of 5 and NE only has a loss to BUF or if we win 4 of 5 games (MUST beat JETS and BUF) and NE loses @BUF and has 1 other loss (any team of the other 4) then we are in with a tied overall record (at 11-5 or 10-6) but a better division record at 4-2 vs 3-3.
Tie breaker #3 - Common Games:
Assuming NE does not lose @BUF, but we still have a tied overall record.
Here are the common games:
San Diego ---- NE Lost, Phins Won
Denver - NE Won, Phins Won
KC - NE Won, Phins still to play
SF - NE Won, Phins still to play
ST. Louis - NE Won, Phins still to play
Seattle - NE still to play, Phins Won
Oakland - NE still to play, Phins Won
Arizona - NE still to play, Phins Lost
At this point we are both tied at 4-1 in common games with 3 games left each (NE has @SEA, @OAK, & ARIZ & Phins have @ST.L, @KC, & SF). These are 3 games we MUST win and hope that NE drops one most likely to either OAK with thier stingy secondary or to ARIZ who can rack up points vs any defense especailly a injured NE secondary who gave Penny a career day. SEA may win b/c they seem due for a Win at home but thats reaching. OAK or ARIZ are the more likely possibilites. That would shift the common games record to Phins going 7-1 and NE going 6-2. We would win the tie breaker.
Tie breaker #4 - Conference Games:
Right now both teams have a 5-4 record against AFC teams. We essentially MUST beat the JETS and BUF and should beat KC so that puts us at 8-4 in the AFC for the season. NE plays PITTS, OAK, and BUF. I can see PITTS winning and that makes NE 7-4 at best in the AFC and if either of the other two beat NE then it porbably wont even get to this tie-breaker. But in the case that it gets this far then I would give the edge to the PHINS in this tie breaker.
Tie breaker #5 - Strength of Victory:
This is figured by calculating the combined winning percentage of the opponents a team has beaten. **edited due to error
Official NFL Tie-breaking procedures:
http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakingprocedures
**I know we can also have us go 3 of 5 and have NE to go 2 of 5 but its not very likely for NE to lose 3 of 5 having OAK and SEA left to play with 5 games to go. That's pretty much 2 Ws with NE only needing to win 1 more out of 3.
Tie breaker #1 - Head-to-Head:
Tied at 1-1 - Irrelevant
Tie breaker #2 - Division Record:
NE plays one more division game @BUF (Final week)
If we win 5 of 5 and NE only has a loss to BUF or if we win 4 of 5 games (MUST beat JETS and BUF) and NE loses @BUF and has 1 other loss (any team of the other 4) then we are in with a tied overall record (at 11-5 or 10-6) but a better division record at 4-2 vs 3-3.
Tie breaker #3 - Common Games:
Assuming NE does not lose @BUF, but we still have a tied overall record.
Here are the common games:
San Diego ---- NE Lost, Phins Won
Denver - NE Won, Phins Won
KC - NE Won, Phins still to play
SF - NE Won, Phins still to play
ST. Louis - NE Won, Phins still to play
Seattle - NE still to play, Phins Won
Oakland - NE still to play, Phins Won
Arizona - NE still to play, Phins Lost
At this point we are both tied at 4-1 in common games with 3 games left each (NE has @SEA, @OAK, & ARIZ & Phins have @ST.L, @KC, & SF). These are 3 games we MUST win and hope that NE drops one most likely to either OAK with thier stingy secondary or to ARIZ who can rack up points vs any defense especailly a injured NE secondary who gave Penny a career day. SEA may win b/c they seem due for a Win at home but thats reaching. OAK or ARIZ are the more likely possibilites. That would shift the common games record to Phins going 7-1 and NE going 6-2. We would win the tie breaker.
Tie breaker #4 - Conference Games:
Right now both teams have a 5-4 record against AFC teams. We essentially MUST beat the JETS and BUF and should beat KC so that puts us at 8-4 in the AFC for the season. NE plays PITTS, OAK, and BUF. I can see PITTS winning and that makes NE 7-4 at best in the AFC and if either of the other two beat NE then it porbably wont even get to this tie-breaker. But in the case that it gets this far then I would give the edge to the PHINS in this tie breaker.
Tie breaker #5 - Strength of Victory:
This is figured by calculating the combined winning percentage of the opponents a team has beaten. **edited due to error
Official NFL Tie-breaking procedures:
http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakingprocedures
