Week 15 Dolphins “Did you know?”

[hugoguzman]

http://www.realfootball365.com/articles/dolphins/13394

- Miami boasts a top 10 defense in terms of preventing third-down conversions, allowing teams to succeed at just a 37 percent clip. This stat is key; after all, it explains why most of Miami's recent opponents – excluding the Patriots – have had a lot of trouble sustaining drives and scoring touchdowns.

I have some other tidbits like this one. Give the article a quick read and let me know what you think. Thanks!

 

[shaunm000]

Great read!

Although, it did scare me a bit.

 

[hugoguzman]

Thanks for the feedback!

As for being scared, I must admit that I never understand when I hear fans say that about a particular matchup.

Here's why:
1) In the NFL, most teams are evenly matched. This isn't college, where most matchups are decidedly on-sided
2) If you think you're team is good, then there should never be a reason to be scared.

 

[JimToss]

Good article overall.

I thought your one stat was kind of misleading. The Ronnie/Ricky combined would put them at #2 for individual players.
However, many teams run this shared backfield, including the Vikings who you mention specifically. Other teams including but not limited to the Panthers, Giants, Titans, Falcons (to a lesser extent), and Ravens (who have rotated due to injuries.)
These teams top 2 leading rushers absolutely hand Ronnie and Ricky their mediocrity papers.
I will admit these teams mentioned do have much better o-lines then our Phins.

Like the article overall, nice work, just wanted to point out a bit of a logical fallicy.

 

[Clipse]

Great read Hugo

 

[hugoguzman]

Good article overall.

I thought your one stat was kind of misleading. The Ronnie/Ricky combined would put them at #2 for individual players.
However, many teams run this shared backfield, including the Vikings who you mention specifically. Other teams including but not limited to the Panthers, Giants, Titans, Falcons (to a lesser extent), and Ravens (who have rotated due to injuries.)
These teams top 2 leading rushers absolutely hand Ronnie and Ricky their mediocrity papers.
I will admit these teams mentioned do have much better o-lines then our Phins.

Like the article overall, nice work, just wanted to point out a bit of a logical fallicy.

It's interesting that you point that out, and I think that it's valid to a certain extent, but consider this:

3 of the top 10 rushers in the league have a YPC average that is more or less on par with that of Ricky and Ronnie (Michael Turner 4.2, Matt Forte 4.0, Ryan Grant 4.0).

Forte is especially interesting, in that he's one of the league's few remaining "every down" backs and is also 7th in the NFL in rushing. He's amassed 1,081 yards and 6 touchdowns on 269 carries, behind an offensive line that more or less as equally inept at run-blocking as Miami's line is.

If you projected Ricky or Ronnie's production out to 269 carries, here's what you'd have:
Ronnie Brown - 1,102 yards, 15 rushing touchdowns
Ricky Williams - 1,131 yards, 6 rushing touchdowns

Now I know that playing the projection game is not a perfect science, because you can't account for wear and tear, etc...but the point is that Brown and Williams seem to measure up when compared to backs that play behind similarly pedestrian offensive lines.

Michael Turner, the league's second leading rusher, is another good example. He's 1,269 yards and 12 TDs on a ridiculous 300 carries. And again, if you project Ronnie and Ricky's numbers, they would be on par for the most part.

 

[Funkymonks]

Which brings up a point I made earlier, Why put the strain on your back if you can get the same production out of 2? We get 1300 yards out of 2 back with half the wear and tear on each of them. I'm sure if we stuck with one back the whole time, Ricky or Ronnie, would get the same production by themselves. However, why do that if you get the same thing using both of them?

 

[BobDole]

http://www.realfootball365.com/articles/dolphins/13394

- Miami boasts a top 10 defense in terms of preventing third-down conversions, allowing teams to succeed at just a 37 percent clip. This stat is key; after all, it explains why most of Miami's recent opponents – excluding the Patriots – have had a lot of trouble sustaining drives and scoring touchdowns.

I have some other tidbits like this one. Give the article a quick read and let me know what you think. Thanks!

good read.

yeah, some of those stats were a little alarming. but i like how our D matches up against their offense - especially with how we've been playing. i especially like how our red zone D matches up against their red zone offense. i believe we are ninth and they are twentieth - and hill isn't exactly stellar in the red zone - he's completing under 50% of his passes and has thrown a few picks.

i think this will be a defensive game. 17-12 miami.

 

[JimToss]

It's interesting that you point that out, and I think that it's valid to a certain extent, but consider this:

3 of the top 10 rushers in the league have a YPC average that is more or less on par with that of Ricky and Ronnie (Michael Turner 4.2, Matt Forte 4.0, Ryan Grant 4.0).

Forte is especially interesting, in that he's one of the league's few remaining "every down" backs and is also 7th in the NFL in rushing. He's amassed 1,081 yards and 6 touchdowns on 269 carries, behind an offensive line that more or less as equally inept at run-blocking as Miami's line is.

If you projected Ricky or Ronnie's production out to 269 carries, here's what you'd have:
Ronnie Brown - 1,102 yards, 15 rushing touchdowns
Ricky Williams - 1,131 yards, 6 rushing touchdowns

Now I know that playing the projection game is not a perfect science, because you can't account for wear and tear, etc...but the point is that Brown and Williams seem to measure up when compared to backs that play behind similarly pedestrian offensive lines.

Michael Turner, the league's second leading rusher, is another good example. He's 1,269 yards and 12 TDs on a ridiculous 300 carries. And again, if you project Ronnie and Ricky's numbers, they would be on par for the most part.

Very nice rebuttal.
I believe that I was extracting a little more then what you meant when you originally wrote the article. I guess that is why I called it "misleading."

From what I understand you are saying now is: "if Ricky and Ronnie were given true #1 type carries they would each be a Top 10 back."
I completely agree with this statement, and the numbers you "projected" show that. (15TD may be a bit skewed, but it is the math:up:)

I'm very happy with the Ricky/Ronnie combo. Plus, I would much rather spread the wear over 2 backs, then have 1 "Top 10 RB."
I do wish we would hand them the rock more, and our O-line could consistently open up gourges for them to run through.

 

[hugoguzman]

Very nice rebuttal.
I believe that I was extracting a little more then what you meant when you originally wrote the article. I guess that is why I called it "misleading."

From what I understand you are saying now is: "if Ricky and Ronnie were given true #1 type carries they would each be a Top 10 back."
I completely agree with this statement, and the numbers you "projected" show that. (15TD may be a bit skewed, but it is the math:up:)

I'm very happy with the Ricky/Ronnie combo. Plus, I would much rather spread the wear over 2 backs, then have 1 "Top 10 RB."
I do wish we would hand them the rock more, and our O-line could consistently open up gourges for them to run through.

How refreshing.

A misunderstanding and/or difference of opinion that is settled peacefully and respectfully without any insults or personal attacks.

There's is hope for the world (and this board)!

 

[PYRO]

8 is great, but 9 sounds good doesn't it. This team should play great, Chad never underestimates his opponents and the players have something to fight for.

But the offense really needs to convert more third downs if we really are at the bottom of the league in the category. I knew we were bad at it, just not that bad.

 

[hugoguzman]

8 is great, but 9 sounds good doesn't it. This team should play great, Chad never underestimates his opponents and the players have something to fight for.

But the offense really needs to convert more third downs if we really are at the bottom of the league in the category. I knew we were bad at it, just not that bad.

Just to be clear, the Dolphins are not dead last or anything. I believe that they rank 22nd in the league.

 

[JimToss]

How refreshing.

A misunderstanding and/or difference of opinion that is settled peacefully and respectfully without any insults or personal attacks.

There's is hope for the world (and this board)!

Hey it was just nice talking to someone civilly, and it was just a common misunderstanding.

Keep posting your articles they are always a good read during the week.