Week 16 efficiency rankings: Fins #10

[NYCphan]

For those who find stats-based analysis interesting: Advanced NFL Stats has updated its efficiency rankings, rating Miami #10 (down from #9 last week), #5 on offense and #20 on defense.

Jets remain at #20 overall, #23 on offense and #15 on defense.

Advanced NFL Stats: Week 16 Efficiency Rankings

FWIW, this translates to a 61% probability that Miami wins on Sunday.

 

[CJTaKoZ]

Does the 61% account for this game being @ NYJ?

For what it's worth, the site I visit (FootballOutsiders) has Miami 17th and the Jets 19th:

http://footballoutsiders.com/stats/teameff2008

 

[NYCphan]

Does the 61% account for this game being @ NYJ?

Yes, I think it does. Another site, NFL Forecast, takes the efficiency ratings and runs simulations to estimate probable outcomes, and I'm pretty sure they factor in some degree of home-field advantage. Their updated playoff probabilities have Miami at 60.86% to win the division, which obviously equates to the same probability of winning in New York.

FWIW, they give the Pats a 24% chance of winning the AFCE, and the Jets the remaining 15%.

 

[PassRush]

Too much triganamatry involved in these things, I just update the rosters, play Madden and drink a beer.