Week one line is out!

[XXXSURTAINXXX]

Hey, call me dumb if you want but, could you give a little explaination to what that means exactly. (im a 17 year old too. Haha, im just stupid and never learned it)

it's probably something you never want to learn bro. Spend that time you would have spent learning the points system volunteering somewhere. It looks better on college and scholarship applications.

LOL @ the influences online.

 

[Ross]

the line opened at 3 1/2.....I would take Miami and the under..

Not at the website the guy linked. It opened at 5.5 2 weeks ago. But you can hit alot of different websites and get different lines at times. I wish I would have slapped some money on that line then. I can't remember the last time Miami was an opening day dog at home...

--Ross

 

[byroan]

it's a nice thought, but as of right now just consider yourself $10 poorer.

Who said it was $10? :confused:

 

[unifiedtheory]

Who places bets for week one 2 1/2 months before the season starts?

That being said....I'd take the Phins at home +4 in a heartbeat...I think the Phins are a smart bet for the first week or two because it won't take the Vegas guru's long to figure out we are a hell of a lot better then last year.

One side note, fror those who like to bet the over/under I read a fact that shows how good the Vegas bookies are.

From 1983 - 1999 there were 3459 games played. 1664 went over and 1759 went under. In a 17 season period there is a 3.7% difference between the two...almost an even split.

 

[Awsi Dooger]

Not at the website the guy linked. It opened at 5.5 2 weeks ago. But you can hit alot of different websites and get different lines at times. I wish I would have slapped some money on that line then. I can't remember the last time Miami was an opening day dog at home...

--Ross

Ross, you forgot about last year so soon? We were +3 at home vs. Tennessee. Otherwise you're right, it goes WAY back.

I didn't have my best NFL season last year but it did get off to a good start. After watching the preseason I challenged us to score 17 points by wagering seperately on Tennessee and under. The total was 37 so that made the projection 20-17 Tennessee.

Anyone who is new to this, that's a good method. Take the spread and total and look at what they are projecting and see where you think it errs, if at all. So in this year's opener at +4 and 38.5, that is essentially saying the score will be Denver 21, Miami 17. If you think we will definitely score more than 17 points, you might bet Miami and over seperately. As long as we score 17 points or more, no way you can lose both bets.

As far as the vig, that's the bookie cut. Called vigorish. The -110 on each side and not even money. The poster who complained about monkeying with the vig probably means they frequently move to -120 on one side and even money on the other side, or perhaps beyond that. I acually like places like that, because it means they are overreacting and half the time it will be in your favor.

 

[vegasphan]

Ross, you forgot about last year so soon? We were +3 at home vs. Tennessee. Otherwise you're right, it goes WAY back.

I didn't have my best NFL season last year but it did get off to a good start. After watching the preseason I challenged us to score 17 points by wagering seperately on Tennessee and under. The total was 37 so that made the projection 20-17 Tennessee.

Anyone who is new to this, that's a good method. Take the spread and total and look at what they are projecting and see where you think it errs, if at all. So in this year's opener at +4 and 38.5, that is essentially saying the score will be Denver 21, Miami 17. If you think we will definitely score more than 17 points, you might bet Miami and over seperately. As long as we score 17 points or more, no way you can lose both bets.

As far as the vig, that's the bookie cut. Called vigorish. The -110 on each side and not even money. The poster who complained about monkeying with the vig probably means they frequently move to -120 on one side and even money on the other side, or perhaps beyond that. I acually like places like that, because it means they are overreacting and half the time it will be in your favor.

I dont think Denver will score 21. I love the under.

 

[fishfan34]

How can they even have a line out already? There are so many factors and variables to consider between now and then. What if half the Broncos offsense tears their ACL's during training camp and the preseason games? Regardless, we should beat them week 1. We should have beaten them last year in Denver.

 

[Awsi Dooger]

Money line. $20 can win me $33.

I also put a few dollars on winning the AFC east, and Superbowl. If we win the SB, I'm $750 richer.

You have to bet too much to win a lot of money on the total wins for the season. Putting just $20 just isn't worth it.

Byroan, I realize you are brand new to this. I should have offered a few more tips in that thread you have linked.

Taking +1.65 instead of 4 or 4.5 points is not great value. Look at it this way, you saved 75 cents but surrendered 4 or 4.5 points. Taking +4 (or 4.5 which is still available) costs -110, so that's 75 cents worse than your money line. But generally 4 or 4.5 points is worth MORE than 75 cents, especially in the NFL. Tons of games land on 3 or 4. Three is by far the most vital number. If Denver wins by 3, you have turned a win into a loss.

Somewhere I have a chart listing man-to-man money line equivalencies. I wish I could locate it now and detail the precise numbers. But suffice to say at +4 it is higher than +1.65. The sportsbook has a decided edge giving you +1.65 instead of 4 points. At that number it should be at least +1.80 before you consider taking it, even at home.

A good idea is to look at the standard money lines for each pointspread. You want to aspire to the bookie number. In other words, if they are offering a 3 point favorite at -1.60 and the dog at +1.40, that's a good indicator you should look for games where you can get a 3 point dog at +1.60 or higher on the money line, or a 3 point favorite at -1.40 or less on the money line. Admittedly, I have more opportunity in Las Vegas with many sportsbooks and chance of errors. The offshore/internet books seem to make far fewer mistakes.

 

[Ross]

Ross, you forgot about last year so soon? We were +3 at home vs. Tennessee. Otherwise you're right, it goes WAY back.

Damn my bad. But it is still a healthy trend if you for look for such things.

Anyone who is new to this, that's a good method. Take the spread and total and look at what they are projecting and see where you think it errs, if at all. So in this year's opener at +4 and 38.5, that is essentially saying the score will be Denver 21, Miami 17.

I never thought of it that way. Something to look into. Oh and thanks for the info on the Vig. But it really doesn't seem to me how they move it. I still have to hit over 55% to turn a profit. House always has the built in edge. I hate that.

--Ross