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☠️ Banned ☠️
It would mean this team could contend for a Super Bowl only if it compiles one of the league's best defenses.
The reason for that is that passer rating differential -- offensive passer rating minus opponents' passer rating -- accounts for 85% of the variation in win percentage in the NFL.
The 2016 Dolphins' passer rating was 95.5, above average. Its opponents' passer rating was 88.5, right about average. A differential of +7 points.
Compare that to the Patriots' 2016 passer rating of 109.5, and its opponents' passer rating of 84.4 -- a differential of +25 points. That much greater imbalance in the Patriots' favor produced a 14-2 record, a first-round bye, and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, and we know what that led to.
The Dolphins would've needed to have a defense that held its opponents to a passer rating of 70.5 to produce the same differential as the Patriots in 2016.
Now think of how unlikely that is. Between 2004 and 2016 there were a mere 32 teams of the 416 that played, that held their opponents to a passer rating below 72.
So there is a mere 7.7% chance that the Dolphins -- given the level of QB play they had in 2016 -- would've performed well enough on defense to produce the situation the Patriots were in, heading into the 2016 playoffs. They're 92.3% unlikely to do so, with that level of QB play.
Going beyond just the Patriots, the average passer rating differential of Super Bowl winners since 2004 is +16.7, so ideally you'd like to get Tannehill's rating to stay between 95 and 100, while compiling a defense that's able to hold opposing teams to an overall passer rating between 78 and 83, which is far more realistic.
Now let's take a look at what the team was doing after the early part of 2016, when many believe Tannehill and the offense were adjusting to Gase's new system.
The passer rating for Tannehill during that period was just over 100, and for Moore after Tannehill's injury it was 105.6. So if the passer rating surrendered to opposing teams was roughly the same during that period as it was on the season as a whole (88.5), there was a differential of about +13 to +15.
That of course had a lot to do with why the team was 9-2 during that period.
With this year's pass defense, however, which is surrendering a horrendous opponents' passer rating of 104, the record during that period last year would've been expected to be 5-6/6-5, not 9-2. The team would've likely finished 6-10/7-9, and there would've been no playoff berth, despite the higher-quality QB play it had than in previous years.
So the team needs QB play of at least Tannehill's 2016 caliber, while the defense needs to improve a great deal as well. The best-case scenario of course is that the starting QB can have a passer rating of at least 100, and the defense can become among the league's best and surrender an opposing passer rating in the upper 70s or lower 80s, which is realistic. That passer rating differential of at least +20 would make the team a contender for the Super Bowl.
Obviously that would require a great deal of improvement in the defense, however. Reducing opponents' passer rating from this year's 104 to the high 70s/low 80s is quite the task.
Additionally, there is no correlation at all in the league between offensive passer rating and opponents' passer rating, and so Tannehill's return to his characteristic level of play alone won't help the defense.
Tannehill's return alone is about only half of the equation here. There's a whole lot more that needs to be accomplished.
The reason for that is that passer rating differential -- offensive passer rating minus opponents' passer rating -- accounts for 85% of the variation in win percentage in the NFL.
The 2016 Dolphins' passer rating was 95.5, above average. Its opponents' passer rating was 88.5, right about average. A differential of +7 points.
Compare that to the Patriots' 2016 passer rating of 109.5, and its opponents' passer rating of 84.4 -- a differential of +25 points. That much greater imbalance in the Patriots' favor produced a 14-2 record, a first-round bye, and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, and we know what that led to.
The Dolphins would've needed to have a defense that held its opponents to a passer rating of 70.5 to produce the same differential as the Patriots in 2016.
Now think of how unlikely that is. Between 2004 and 2016 there were a mere 32 teams of the 416 that played, that held their opponents to a passer rating below 72.
So there is a mere 7.7% chance that the Dolphins -- given the level of QB play they had in 2016 -- would've performed well enough on defense to produce the situation the Patriots were in, heading into the 2016 playoffs. They're 92.3% unlikely to do so, with that level of QB play.
Going beyond just the Patriots, the average passer rating differential of Super Bowl winners since 2004 is +16.7, so ideally you'd like to get Tannehill's rating to stay between 95 and 100, while compiling a defense that's able to hold opposing teams to an overall passer rating between 78 and 83, which is far more realistic.
Now let's take a look at what the team was doing after the early part of 2016, when many believe Tannehill and the offense were adjusting to Gase's new system.
The passer rating for Tannehill during that period was just over 100, and for Moore after Tannehill's injury it was 105.6. So if the passer rating surrendered to opposing teams was roughly the same during that period as it was on the season as a whole (88.5), there was a differential of about +13 to +15.
That of course had a lot to do with why the team was 9-2 during that period.
With this year's pass defense, however, which is surrendering a horrendous opponents' passer rating of 104, the record during that period last year would've been expected to be 5-6/6-5, not 9-2. The team would've likely finished 6-10/7-9, and there would've been no playoff berth, despite the higher-quality QB play it had than in previous years.
So the team needs QB play of at least Tannehill's 2016 caliber, while the defense needs to improve a great deal as well. The best-case scenario of course is that the starting QB can have a passer rating of at least 100, and the defense can become among the league's best and surrender an opposing passer rating in the upper 70s or lower 80s, which is realistic. That passer rating differential of at least +20 would make the team a contender for the Super Bowl.
Obviously that would require a great deal of improvement in the defense, however. Reducing opponents' passer rating from this year's 104 to the high 70s/low 80s is quite the task.
Additionally, there is no correlation at all in the league between offensive passer rating and opponents' passer rating, and so Tannehill's return to his characteristic level of play alone won't help the defense.
Tannehill's return alone is about only half of the equation here. There's a whole lot more that needs to be accomplished.
