What it takes to learn to play QB

[CrunchTime]

Taking a simplistic approach it takes approx 1000 throws before you can evaluate a QB.

 

[rafael]

Did you break down film of all their starts to make your assessment; or are you simply formulating an argument of convenience?

I reviewed the tapes of about half his starts last year.

 

[zach13]

Rob Johnson dominated the state of most sacks per attempt. It was amazing to me that a quarterback would get sacked so often. I used to love it when he was quarterback because Miami could pat their sack statistics. I was sad when he was benched

Agreed, Rob Johnson was my favorite QB for any opposing team.

The fins used to just kill that guy.

 

[Justasportsfan]

Losman "could be" the second coming of Favre/Kelly combined? Wow....just put him into the HOF already. Gimme a break...

He also 'Could be' the next Ryan leaf. Point is neither opinions are right nor wrong.

 

[Justasportsfan]

Leave it to a Bills fan to say Losman will be the next Kelly and Favre combined. :shakeno: That's some serious high praise for a player who has yet to start a game.
AJ Feeley is alot older than a 2 nd year player. His learning curve is diminishing. I'm not saying this because of my personal view of AJ. It's just the truth. This year, I think, will be his last year to prove if he has it. If he doesn't win the QB job this year, then it can almost be a guarantee that he never will.
Stating that any QB will be Kelly and Favre combined is a tall order. Stating that a QB wil be either one period is a tall order. I know we don't have a Favre on our Roster and I doubt that we have a Kelly.

There's a difference between "could be" and "will be". Don't twist his words around.

 

[Justasportsfan]

While on the bills site I was reminded of a game that I watch of Jim Kelly's first game as a bill. Mind you he'd had plenty of experience in the usfl prior to comming to the bills. Anyway the fan's statement set me at ease with AJ's first part time year.



It was the same way with Bret farve. I don't know if AJ will get the chance to do what these guys got to do, because the coaches kept them in until they got it. Will Saban be willing to do that with AJ, I don't know..but I hope so, because AJ seems to have that it. And generally you have to support someone like that..Here's to hoping AJ's it, come out and play alot more this year.

No matter how ba the bills were when Kelly came in, he took charge and told everyone he was gonna do it his way even in just his second year. That was documented.

Aj is in his 4th (?). I doubt he will ever comes close to Kelly. It's not even sure if he can beat out Gus who's not even close to whar Kelly was.

You are reaching for the stars MD. Let AJ prove himself to be a starting qb first before you start asking if he can come close what Kelly did.

IMO , he's not even a Fiedler yet. Yeah, so Fiedler sucked to some of you guys, but he's been able to get to the playoffs and before you start giving the credit to you D and RW, AJ hasn't even achieved that either.

 

[rafael]

Taking a simplistic approach it takes approx 1000 throws before you can evaluate a QB.

I know that this is the conventional wisdom in the NFL, but I don't think it's necessary to go that far. There is a human tendency to assume that more information is more accurate. The fact is that's not always true. In many cases it's less accurate. You just need to be able to identify the most relevant predictors. The example that comes to mind is from outside the football world.

Cook County Hospital was trying to find a better way to predict which ER patients were really having heart attacks and which should be sent home. There is a fairly large list of factors that contribute to the likelihood of having a heart attack (EKG results, history of diabetes, age, etc.). Making assessments on all of these would often take as long as three days (which of course is very expensive). The Chief administrator there developed a 3 question questionaire covering what he felt were the most relevant predictors. Over two years they compared the accuracy of the diagnosis by the doctors using the old method and that of the questionaire. The result was that the doctors using all their experience and compiled data were far less accurate. The doctors were 70% less accurate at recognizing patients who weren't having heart attacks and between 6% and 20% less at identifying the people who were having heart attacks. In short, having more info didn't help, in fact it hurt.

There are examples like this everywhere and IMO it applies to analyzing QBs. You're looking for that IT factor. That feel for the game. All the other qualities like arm strength, mobility, etc. aren't good predictors. Sure, you need minimum levels of those to perform in the NFL, but almost all NFL QBs have those. When you look for a starter you look for feel. If the guy you have starting lacks that then you keep looking even if he has every other quality in spades.

That's the mistake I believe many of the people who believe in AJ are making. They either say we need more info or they are focused on an irrelevant predictor like arm strength. The relevant predictor is feel and AJ hasn't shown that.

 

[MDFINFAN]

No matter how ba the bills were when Kelly came in, he took charge and told everyone he was gonna do it his way even in just his second year. That was documented.

Aj is in his 4th (?). I doubt he will ever comes close to Kelly. It's not even sure if he can beat out Gus who's not even close to whar Kelly was.

You are reaching for the stars MD. Let AJ prove himself to be a starting qb first before you start asking if he can come close what Kelly did.

IMO , he's not even a Fiedler yet. Yeah, so Fiedler sucked to some of you guys, but he's been able to get to the playoffs and before you start giving the credit to you D and RW, AJ hasn't even achieved that either.

Right now I don't know where AJ will end up, he maybe on the bench for all I know. My point was that Kelly did start rough, he did have some time in the USFL before he got to the bills, so he had a chance to get some experience and still had his growing pains in the NFL. So seeing AJ struggle last year, especially behind our OL, meathead statement just clam me down when it came to AJ. I should have known that this threat would get turned into the comparison of JP and cross between...I started to edit that part out.

 

[josephreese]

Rob Johnson dominated the state of most sacks per attempt. It was amazing to me that a quarterback would get sacked so often. I used to love it when he was quarterback because Miami could pat their sack statistics. I was sad when he was benched

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[Oboy]

Can't believe I'm going to defend a Jills fan... he did say "JP MIGHT be the next..." He was by no means saying he will definitely be. Who knows how good Loseman may be? NO one thought Farve was going to end up as good as he did. NO one thought Brady would have as much success as he as had. That poster was just saying even IF he ends up being great he will most likely stuggle some this year. Which I think is a fair statement.