I looked at the top 20 most reliable mocks according to Huddle Report with from 3-5 years track record and which had free mocks posted in May. The results for MIA were interesting.
Falling Elite Players
I know everyone is fixed on RT, but the expected run on OTs in the top and middle of the first round is driving some really good skill position talent down the boards.
Almost everyone has the top four OTs cleaned out by the NYG pick at #12. MIA needs a RT, not a LT, and no RT is worth trading up to the top third of the first round to get. Forget it.
Ebron is one of the best TE prospects over the past decade and easily a top ten talent. Ebron/Clay would give MIA their Gronk/Hernandez. Ebron actually has a 25% chance of falling to #19 and a 65% chance of falling to #17. If Ebron gets past the NYG at 12, MIA needs to start working the phones to trade up past BAL and the NYJ, preferably by offering a 2015 pick or two. Ebron is that good IMHO.
Mosley is the best ILB prospect with no close second and a top ten talent. However, he reportedly has some physical red flags and is also falling. MIA was seriously shopping for starting ILB in free agency, with the plan to replace Wheeler with Ellerbe at WLB. Mosley has a 70% chance of falling to #19, with 4 mocks predicting MIA will choose him outright.
There are three blue chip CBs in the draft (Gilbert, Dennard and Fuller) and you can never have enough of those. There is a better than 50% chance two will fall to #19 and an almost certain chance one will fall.
There are two blue chip FS in the draft (Dix & Pryor) and MIA could start one of them over Delmas. Pryor has a 50% chance of falling to MIA, but no one has MIA picking him outright. Pryor general falls when there is a run on the blue chip CBs.
Right Tackle
Half the top mock drafters say MIA will either reach at #19 or trade down to a WR or QB hungry team for either James or Kouandijo. (The last minute mocks were the ones with James and they are the ones talking about trade downs.) MIA has ranked one or both as first round talent in various reports and multiple other mock drafters have the two ranked and going in the bottom of the 1st and first half of the second.
The consensus smart move is for MIA to trade down from #19, get their RT at a better value pick and also pick up a couple more picks later in this very deep draft.
Allow me to offer another alternative - pick up a falling elite player in the first round and trade up from #50 using a 2015 pick or two to get their starting RT.
WLB
MIA reportedly worked out WLB and former safety Shazier over the last couple days and there was a bit of talk yesterday about MIA picking him. However, only one mock released this morning has MIA picking Shazier. A few more had Dallas taking him and the vast majority had Sahzier falling in the latter part of the first round. I don't see MIA's interest here. Ellerbe would be better than Shazier.
Hope this helps. Regardless how it turns out, this may be the most unpredictable first round for MIA in years. :up:
Falling Elite Players
I know everyone is fixed on RT, but the expected run on OTs in the top and middle of the first round is driving some really good skill position talent down the boards.
Almost everyone has the top four OTs cleaned out by the NYG pick at #12. MIA needs a RT, not a LT, and no RT is worth trading up to the top third of the first round to get. Forget it.
Ebron is one of the best TE prospects over the past decade and easily a top ten talent. Ebron/Clay would give MIA their Gronk/Hernandez. Ebron actually has a 25% chance of falling to #19 and a 65% chance of falling to #17. If Ebron gets past the NYG at 12, MIA needs to start working the phones to trade up past BAL and the NYJ, preferably by offering a 2015 pick or two. Ebron is that good IMHO.
Mosley is the best ILB prospect with no close second and a top ten talent. However, he reportedly has some physical red flags and is also falling. MIA was seriously shopping for starting ILB in free agency, with the plan to replace Wheeler with Ellerbe at WLB. Mosley has a 70% chance of falling to #19, with 4 mocks predicting MIA will choose him outright.
There are three blue chip CBs in the draft (Gilbert, Dennard and Fuller) and you can never have enough of those. There is a better than 50% chance two will fall to #19 and an almost certain chance one will fall.
There are two blue chip FS in the draft (Dix & Pryor) and MIA could start one of them over Delmas. Pryor has a 50% chance of falling to MIA, but no one has MIA picking him outright. Pryor general falls when there is a run on the blue chip CBs.
Right Tackle
Half the top mock drafters say MIA will either reach at #19 or trade down to a WR or QB hungry team for either James or Kouandijo. (The last minute mocks were the ones with James and they are the ones talking about trade downs.) MIA has ranked one or both as first round talent in various reports and multiple other mock drafters have the two ranked and going in the bottom of the 1st and first half of the second.
The consensus smart move is for MIA to trade down from #19, get their RT at a better value pick and also pick up a couple more picks later in this very deep draft.
Allow me to offer another alternative - pick up a falling elite player in the first round and trade up from #50 using a 2015 pick or two to get their starting RT.
WLB
MIA reportedly worked out WLB and former safety Shazier over the last couple days and there was a bit of talk yesterday about MIA picking him. However, only one mock released this morning has MIA picking Shazier. A few more had Dallas taking him and the vast majority had Sahzier falling in the latter part of the first round. I don't see MIA's interest here. Ellerbe would be better than Shazier.
Hope this helps. Regardless how it turns out, this may be the most unpredictable first round for MIA in years. :up:
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