Ok so seeing how there is pretty much ZERO news right now I did a bit of research just for fun to see what we can expect as far as Ginn in his second year. Arguably the 2 hardest positions to be GREAT at in the league after QB has to be DB/CB (arguably just as hard as QB) then followed by WR (WR has it a bit b/c he knows the play). The wide receiver position has so little room for error overall especially since the throwing window for QBs at best is 4 - 7 seconds unless ur Brady who takes 7 seconds to scratch his balls then has 7 more to complete a pass. Developing routes at the NFL level needs to happen quick and precise to the last detail. The smallest error or step just 1/2 a second too soon or late can result in an INT just as quickly. But this is where great WRs can compensate with natural ability. If you look at the history of the draft you will see that there have been more busts at the WR position than any other position. Now part of that definitely stems from teams having more WR than pretty much any other position but u can still see the relevance..
So I decided to look at the current set of elite WRs in the league to see exactly how long it took for them to actually become consistent play makers. So here goes:
T.O. - 5 years (Thats with Steve Young and Jeff Garcia under center [Both great QBs in their right] )
Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne - 3 yrs each (and thats with a guy named Manning tossing them the ball)
T.J. Houshmanwhatever - 5 yrs
Braylon Edwards - 3 yrs
Steve Smith - 3 yrs
Paxlico Burress - 4 yrs but had >1000 yds in year 2
Hines Ward - 3 yrs
Exceptions:
Jerry Rice - 1 yr (Top 2 of all time - Controversially I just might take Randy Moss over him)
Randy Moss - out the gate balled it up (but hes possibly the best receiver ever -Top 2 ...i don't care if Brady threw him the ball...some of his catches last year were down rite ridiculous...see the game vs the phins or pretty much any of the other 14 games if u need some visuals)
Ocho Cinco - out the gate as well
Torry Holt - 1 yr
Now to my next point that the consistency at the QB position has a lot to do with the WRs ability to get better. Things like route running, timing, and especially anticipating the ball being there before you even turn around are HUGE factors (for lessons on this see any game with Harrision and Manning who have probably the best timing and anticipated throws than any other QB/WR combo in the league solidified by their record for most QB to WR touchdowns). These are those little things that make a WR go from average to great.
Now Ginn does have a lot of promise with those huge strides, quick feet, NASTY acceleration, and pretty good hands. His height is a bit of a concern but if you know how to get open it wont be much of an issue (i.e. Hines Ward - but he was recently voted smartest offensive player by current NFL coaches, so ya). But as much as I want to believe that next year will be a break out year for Ginn its hard to see that happening especially since history tells us otherwise.
Now I didnt write this to bag on Ginn...On the contrary it is to put in perspective the reality of the WR position and for people to understand that patience will bring out the best in Ginn. Especially since we have a legitimate coaching staff finally in place who is looking for a run first approach that will open up the secondary with 6 - 8 men being in the box leaving for a lot of man to man coverage. And with that speed and the next couple years under his belt Ginn can grow as a player and be the receiver we desperately need.
In conclusion, I say this - "The NFL is a ' what-have-you-done-lately' kind of a league, but we have 2 - 3 years min (best case) to become playoff contenders once again. So the next time you feel the need to once again bash on the #1 pick of the 07 draft (although I havnt seen too much of that after early in the offseason), bite your tongue and be patient. Give him the chance to get a better feel for the league (which seems will take more than 2 or 3 years for WRs) and if by the '09 - '10 season there hasn't been that level of play we expect from a 1st rounder well then at that point say what you will, but at least let the opportunity to succeed surpass him before writing him off."
So I decided to look at the current set of elite WRs in the league to see exactly how long it took for them to actually become consistent play makers. So here goes:
T.O. - 5 years (Thats with Steve Young and Jeff Garcia under center [Both great QBs in their right] )
Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne - 3 yrs each (and thats with a guy named Manning tossing them the ball)
T.J. Houshmanwhatever - 5 yrs
Braylon Edwards - 3 yrs
Steve Smith - 3 yrs
Paxlico Burress - 4 yrs but had >1000 yds in year 2
Hines Ward - 3 yrs
Exceptions:
Jerry Rice - 1 yr (Top 2 of all time - Controversially I just might take Randy Moss over him)
Randy Moss - out the gate balled it up (but hes possibly the best receiver ever -Top 2 ...i don't care if Brady threw him the ball...some of his catches last year were down rite ridiculous...see the game vs the phins or pretty much any of the other 14 games if u need some visuals)
Ocho Cinco - out the gate as well
Torry Holt - 1 yr
Now to my next point that the consistency at the QB position has a lot to do with the WRs ability to get better. Things like route running, timing, and especially anticipating the ball being there before you even turn around are HUGE factors (for lessons on this see any game with Harrision and Manning who have probably the best timing and anticipated throws than any other QB/WR combo in the league solidified by their record for most QB to WR touchdowns). These are those little things that make a WR go from average to great.
Now Ginn does have a lot of promise with those huge strides, quick feet, NASTY acceleration, and pretty good hands. His height is a bit of a concern but if you know how to get open it wont be much of an issue (i.e. Hines Ward - but he was recently voted smartest offensive player by current NFL coaches, so ya). But as much as I want to believe that next year will be a break out year for Ginn its hard to see that happening especially since history tells us otherwise.
Now I didnt write this to bag on Ginn...On the contrary it is to put in perspective the reality of the WR position and for people to understand that patience will bring out the best in Ginn. Especially since we have a legitimate coaching staff finally in place who is looking for a run first approach that will open up the secondary with 6 - 8 men being in the box leaving for a lot of man to man coverage. And with that speed and the next couple years under his belt Ginn can grow as a player and be the receiver we desperately need.
In conclusion, I say this - "The NFL is a ' what-have-you-done-lately' kind of a league, but we have 2 - 3 years min (best case) to become playoff contenders once again. So the next time you feel the need to once again bash on the #1 pick of the 07 draft (although I havnt seen too much of that after early in the offseason), bite your tongue and be patient. Give him the chance to get a better feel for the league (which seems will take more than 2 or 3 years for WRs) and if by the '09 - '10 season there hasn't been that level of play we expect from a 1st rounder well then at that point say what you will, but at least let the opportunity to succeed surpass him before writing him off."
