What To Look For & To Avoid In A Draft Pick? | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

What To Look For & To Avoid In A Draft Pick?

So Be

So Be

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I was listening to Pollian the other day, and he had all the stats looked up since the start of FA 22 years ago on draft picks success. The guidelines were a pick making it in the NFL with the team drafting him.

There were only 9 #1 overall picks who made it. He went on to say that it did not matter if it was the first round or the 7th, only half make it as NFL players. I've seen and heard the same from many.

That said, experts and analysts are far from in agreement on what to look for or avoid in finding success, even on the same team. There are no rules that have proven to work over others.

There are height and weight, speed, baggage, injury, small schools, position change, 4 year players, taking plays off, intelligence, need, scheme fit, projects, leadership, etc, etc.

So, what do you look for, and to avoid, in a draft pick? /and how is Miami doing based on what you believe?
 
Southbeach 2 said:
I was listening to Pollian the other day, and he had all the stats looked up since the start of FA 22 years ago on draft picks success. The guidelines were a pick making it in the NFL with the team drafting him.

There were only 9 #1 overall picks who made it. He went on to say that it did not matter if it was the first round or the 7th, only half make it as NFL players. I've seen and heard the same from many.

That said, experts and analysts are far from in agreement on what to look for or avoid in finding success, even on the same team. There are no rules that have proven to work over others.

There are height and weight, speed, baggage, injury, small schools, position change, 4 year players, taking plays off, intelligence, need, scheme fit, projects, leadership, etc, etc.

So, what do you look for, and to avoid, in a draft pick? /and how is Miami doing based on what you believe?
Click to expand...

Under Jeff Ireland, Miami went after more Height/Weight/Speed guys . . . . which is fine, however they seemed to go after guys who, on paper, can do more than one thing . . . rather than guys who are real good at one thing.

Like it's more appealing to Ireland to take Jonathan Martin, who he feels, can start at RT day one, but replace Jake Long at LT. Come to find out, he sucked at both. He goes after a Michael Egnew who has good height/speed for the position, but personality wise was soft as cotton.

Hickey in 2014, he gambled on small school players, but with his 2 money picks, he got 2 "less than spectacular" athletes, however guys who were team leaders and good fits for what we want to do. There is no wonder that James/Landry are 2 of most favored draft picks in the last 15 years.

2015, I think you saw a blend of Hickey/Tannenbaum and I like what they did. Took great fits and stuck to the best player on their board in many cases. Gambled on a few guys, got value and early in this draft process it seems like it is one of the better drafts we've seen around these parts in a while.

You have to avoid guys with chronic character issues. It's just not worth it to depend on those type of guys at important positions. It's why I was against DGB . . . he could be fully turned around, but nobody knows that. 3 weed incidents and domestic violence . . . nah I'm good . . . let somebody else gamble. Parker is clean off the field and fits exactly what we need . . . DGB may have more upside, but the floor is below the basement.
 
look for: Bane-esque players
avoid: non Bane-esque players
 
www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/mia/draft.htm

Here's a link for the Dolphins draft history. It would be interesting to see how we did over the last 20 years with Pollians guidelines, year by year.

I'll do some later. If anyone else wants to play, pick a year and give an opinion on the 50% success.
 
I am Bane said:
look for: Bane-esque players
avoid: non Bane-esque players
Click to expand...


Definition of BANE


1

a obsolete : killer, slayer

b : poison

c : death, destruction <stop the way of those that seek my bane — Philip Sidney>

d : woe

2

: a source of harm or ruin : curse <national frontiers have been more of a bane than a boon for mankind — D. C. Thomson>

Based on definition, I think I will pass on your suggestion. :)
 
Southbeach 2 said:
Definition of BANE


1

a obsolete : killer, slayer

b : poison

c : death, destruction <stop the way of those that seek my bane — Philip Sidney>

d : woe

2

: a source of harm or ruin : curse <national frontiers have been more of a bane than a boon for mankind — D. C. Thomson>

Based on definition, I think I will pass on your suggestion. :)
Click to expand...


awwwwwwwww.... stop looking into the negative side ever so.

lol... football is how i got the nickname... Bane- "the cause of ruin and destruction"
 
I am Bane said:
awwwwwwwww.... stop looking into the negative side ever so.

lol... football is how i got the nickname... Bane- "the cause of ruin and destruction"
Click to expand...

Need to expand my friend or, some may be thinking of poison and woe.

PS- Hope this had to do with D, and not O. :)
 
Southbeach 2 said:
www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/mia/draft.htm

Here's a link for the Dolphins draft history. It would be interesting to see how we did over the last 20 years with Pollians guidelines, year by year.

I'll do some later. If anyone else wants to play, pick a year and give an opinion on the 50% success.
Click to expand...

Lets start with 2012.

Tannehill- success

Martin- failure

Vernon- success

Egnew- failure

Miller- success

Kaddu- failure

Cunni9ngham- fai9lure

Randall- failure

Matthews- success

total- 9 picks and 4 good ones.
 
Southbeach 2 said:
Lets start with 2012.

Tannehill- success

Martin- failure

Vernon- success

Egnew- failure

Miller- success

Kaddu- failure

Cunni9ngham- fai9lure

Randall- failure

Matthews- success

total- 9 picks and 4 good ones.
Click to expand...

How dare you call Tannehill a success. He hasn't thrown for 9,000 TDs yet.

Can he throw a 346-yard bomb against gale force winds? No.

Can he simultaneously cure cancer and tame dozens of angry bulls? No.

Has he perfected time travel? I don't think so.

Dude's a waste of a draft pick, obviously.
 
SCLSU Mud Dogs said:
How dare you call Tannehill a success. He hasn't thrown for 9,000 TDs yet.

Can he throw a 346-yard bomb against gale force winds? No.

Can he simultaneously cure cancer and tame dozens of angry bulls? No.

Has he perfected time travel? I don't think so.

Dude's a waste of a draft pick, obviously.
Click to expand...

I was hoping for sane, as oppose to bane (not the poster) type posters to reply. lol
 
I'll make it easy on me and go with the '03 season

2 49 Eddie Moore LB - Fail
3 78 Wade Smith T - Success
3 87 Taylor Whitley G - Fail
5 156 Donald Lee TE - Fail
5 169 J.R. Tolver WR - Fail
6 181 Corey Jenkins LB - Fail
6 209 Tim Provost T - Fail
6 213 Yeremiah Bell DB - Success
7 248 Davern Williams DT - Fail


2/9 :crazy:
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Sons of Shula said:
I'll make it easy on me and go with the '03 season

2 49 Eddie Moore LB - Fail
3 78 Wade Smith T - Fail
3 87 Taylor Whitley G - Fail
5 156 Donald Lee TE - Fail
5 169 J.R. Tolver WR - Fail
6 181 Corey Jenkins LB - Fail
6 209 Tim Provost T - Fail
6 213 Yeremiah Bell DB - Success
7 248 Davern Williams DT - Fail


1/9 :crazy:
Click to expand...

Hell, that will kill any average.
 
In the first round, you want a player that is the proto-type size and athletic ability that has also been very productive. The Bills failed at this when under an old regime they drafted Aaron Maybin. Maybin had only one year of production and as a defensive end he weighed 230 LB's when playing the year he was drafted. That is the how you screw up as I and many others criticized the player being picked high before it happened.
 
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