What we should do in the draft

[KendallCat]

First off I really like the moves made by Mueller and Cameron to date, and they are doing what should have been done a long time ago by the Dolphins front office. The way the NFL is set up these days going 9-7 or 8-8 every year is a recipe for never getting to a Super Bowl, and the way our front office gave away 1st and 2nd round picks the past 5-6 years was a crime. If you take into account the (2) #1's for Ricky, a #2 for Feeley, a #2 for Culpepper, I believe a 3rd also for Ricky, using a 2nd on Eddie Moore, a
1st on Fletcher when we had Madison and Surtain, and a 4th to move up one spot to get Carey is it any wonder we are in the shape we are in. That right there is (3) 1st round picks, (3) 2nd round picks, a 3rd, and a 4th wasted in the last 6 drafts.

This year we have a great opportunity by having the 9th overall pick to go along with a pair of 2nd round picks thanks to the Welker trade, and since our biggest needs are on offense we should be able to address this in the draft. The only problem is that at #9 we are just outside of having a lock on an impact player like Russell, Thomas, Johnson, Peterson according to the draft experts, but we are guaranteed someone like Okoye, Brown, Landry, Ginn, or Adams. The real issue is will one of the above players make a huge difference to our team by picking them at #9, or are we better off moving down 4-6 spots and picking up an extra 2nd or 3rd round pick. I think we are better off moving down and getting the extra picks and here is why:

* outside of the top 4-5 players there are really no impact players in the draft that people will overpay for with picks, but for teams trying to fill a need at other positions they will move up to #9

* moving down a few spots and getting an extra 3rd round pick would be the best move because it would allow us to still get o-line help in the form of either Brown or Blaylock, and we could package the 3rd rounder with one of our 2nd round picks to pick up a late first round pick and get either Kalil at center, Willis at LB or one of the receivers like Jarrett, Meachem, or Ginn if they drop that far

* with our 2nd round pick we could go after a young QB to groom like Stanton, Sidney Rice at WR, or Merriweather at safety

* with our 3rd round pick we would after the BPA or if we don't go QB in the 2nd we could take Kolb as a QB.

While this is not the sexiest draft in terms of high impact picks it would be the one that 2-3 years from now people would say that we picked up 1-2 Pro Bowler's and some impact players on offense. If we were to add the best guard (Blaylock) and center (Kalil) along with a WR like Rice we would essentially be picking up 3 players with 1st round grades, and with Ronnie Brown in the backfield having a couple of strong o-lineman to run behind would make our offense better from day 1. Teams would have to stack 8-9 in the box to stop our runnng game, and with a WR core of Chambers, Hagan, and Rice we could exploit matchups in the secondary. If we stick at #9 and don't get Quinn then Okoye is the smartest move. A 19 year old kid who I have seen play live several times is a great DT, and he should only be a freshman/sophomore in college this year to boot! In 3-4 years he will hit his prime so he has plenty of room to grow and mature.

 

[MrEd]

Based on your own analogy...why in the world would a team want to move up then? Why would a team give up a precious 2nd or 3rd round pick to move up to a spot we dont even want to be in? C'mon, bro...think!!!

No one will want to trade up to #9. Aint happening.

 

[twg76]

Trading up and down is usually a spontaneous thing. If someone slips to 9 that wasn't predicted to be there, Miami may get offers to trade down. You never know. But you can go into the draft counting on that.

 

[KendallCat]

Based on your own analogy...why in the world would a team want to move up then? Why would a team give up a precious 2nd or 3rd round pick to move up to a spot we dont even want to be in? C'mon, bro...think!!!

No one will want to trade up to #9. Aint happening.

You are so right Mr Ed - why would a team want to give up a 2nd or 3rd to move up in the draft to make sure the player they need is not already gone. I am sure the Bills don't need a replacement for losing McGahee, and with Peterson assuredly gone when they pick that only leaves Lynch from Cal as the only other RB close to a first round grade. Of course St Louis does not desperately need help at DT, and with Branch gone they would love to have Okoye from Louisville. Kansas City and Tennessee both need WR's, and being able to get Ginn, Jarrett, or Meachem might be worth giving up a 3rd round pick.

Nobody ever trades up for players - better tell that to Atlanta when they moved up with San Diego for Vick or the NY Giants when they gave up a ton to get Eli. Just because we have multiple needs and can use the extra picks does not mean a team that is 1-2 players away with the window to win a SB closing would not make the trade - history shows it happens all the team. Maybe if you lost the attitude and did some research it would help next time.

 

[Phanatical]

KendallCat:

I like your ideas, just don't really follow how it would work.

OK, someone trades up for our 9 spot, what do we gain? A lower first and a second? That would be real sweet if they could pull it off! If it could be done I would say go for it in a heartbeat. We need a LT, a LG, a C and a QB. Your scenario would allow us to pickup all four in the first two rounds. Let's hope we get that lucky. My only real disagreement with your scenario is if we don't trade down, and Brown ro Quinn is available, I don't see how we can pass either of them up.

GO PHINS~!

 

[KendallCat]

phanatical - thank you for the nice comments and here is the scenario to make it happen. We currently own the #9, #40, and #60 overall picks after the Welker trade for NE's 2nd rounder. If we were to trade down in the first
4-5 spots for a 2nd or 3rd rounder it would then give us picks #15, #40, #60, and a pair of 3rd rounders. Looking at the draft value chart we could package our 2nd at #40 with a 3rd round pick and move into the late part of the 1st round/early 2nd round.

As far as Quinn and Brown are concerned it is up to our scouting department to evaluate them and decide if they are worth taking at #9. This to me is the most important piece in the draft in that while it is important to have high draft picks it is also important to get the right players. Robert Gallery went #2 overall as a "franchise LT" to Oakland and he has been a bust to date, but Marcus McNeill the mammoth LT from Auburn was seen as an injury risk with spinal stenosis and many wondered if he could play in the NFL. He was drafted by San Diego in the 2nd round and was the offensive POY last year. If Quinn or Brown are there at #9 and we feel that they are best player to take I say we pull the trigger.

I think the biggest mistake teams make is that teams make is that they don't use their high picks wisely - see Miami giving away numerous #1's and #2's in trades, and there are also positions that have bust written all over them - namely QB's and WR's. Look at how many WR's the past few years have been early picks and have not produced - Charlest Rogers, Mike Williams, Roddy White, Ashley Lelie, Josh Reed, Reggie Williams, Clayton to name a few. Look at players like Steve Smith, Colston, Marvin Harrison, TO, Donald Driver, Charles Johnson who were not high picks and are some of the best in the league. We need to come out of every draft with 3-4 solid starters, and over the past 5 years we have done that once back in 2005. That is why we are currently in the shape we are in.

 

[Phanatical]

Hey, you're making a lot of sense. Perhaps you should be working for the Phins.

Anyway, no matter what we do, I hope we don't trade UP again!

 

[PHINSfan]

Cat...great post!!!
I really like the idea of trading down and picking up Kalil and Stanton.
Good job!!

 

[Geforce]

You are so right Mr Ed - why would a team want to give up a 2nd or 3rd to move up in the draft to make sure the player they need is not already gone. I am sure the Bills don't need a replacement for losing McGahee, and with Peterson assuredly gone when they pick that only leaves Lynch from Cal as the only other RB close to a first round grade. Of course St Louis does not desperately need help at DT, and with Branch gone they would love to have Okoye from Louisville. Kansas City and Tennessee both need WR's, and being able to get Ginn, Jarrett, or Meachem might be worth giving up a 3rd round pick.

A team that might look to trade up has to be convinced that we or another team might draft the player they want, otherwise there is not need to trade up.

For the sake of argument, let's say Peterson falls to us at #9. Every team knows that we will not take him because we already have Ronnie Brown and, if he's reinstated, Ricky Williams. They also know that the possiblity of Atlanta or San Francisco drafting him is very low as well. So a team like Buffalo that may be looking for a running back will have no reason to trade up unless they feel Green Bay or another team will try to move ahead of them to acquire Peterson.

 

[PhinsRock]

First off I really like the moves made by Mueller and Cameron to date, and they are doing what should have been done a long time ago by the Dolphins front office. The way the NFL is set up these days going 9-7 or 8-8 every year is a recipe for never getting to a Super Bowl, and the way our front office gave away 1st and 2nd round picks the past 5-6 years was a crime. If you take into account the (2) #1's for Ricky, a #2 for Feeley, a #2 for Culpepper, I believe a 3rd also for Ricky, using a 2nd on Eddie Moore, a
1st on Fletcher when we had Madison and Surtain, and a 4th to move up one spot to get Carey is it any wonder we are in the shape we are in. That right there is (3) 1st round picks, (3) 2nd round picks, a 3rd, and a 4th wasted in the last 6 drafts.

This year we have a great opportunity by having the 9th overall pick to go along with a pair of 2nd round picks thanks to the Welker trade, and since our biggest needs are on offense we should be able to address this in the draft. The only problem is that at #9 we are just outside of having a lock on an impact player like Russell, Thomas, Johnson, Peterson according to the draft experts, but we are guaranteed someone like Okoye, Brown, Landry, Ginn, or Adams. The real issue is will one of the above players make a huge difference to our team by picking them at #9, or are we better off moving down 4-6 spots and picking up an extra 2nd or 3rd round pick. I think we are better off moving down and getting the extra picks and here is why:

* outside of the top 4-5 players there are really no impact players in the draft that people will overpay for with picks, but for teams trying to fill a need at other positions they will move up to #9

* moving down a few spots and getting an extra 3rd round pick would be the best move because it would allow us to still get o-line help in the form of either Brown or Blaylock, and we could package the 3rd rounder with one of our 2nd round picks to pick up a late first round pick and get either Kalil at center, Willis at LB or one of the receivers like Jarrett, Meachem, or Ginn if they drop that far

* with our 2nd round pick we could go after a young QB to groom like Stanton, Sidney Rice at WR, or Merriweather at safety

* with our 3rd round pick we would after the BPA or if we don't go QB in the 2nd we could take Kolb as a QB.

While this is not the sexiest draft in terms of high impact picks it would be the one that 2-3 years from now people would say that we picked up 1-2 Pro Bowler's and some impact players on offense. If we were to add the best guard (Blaylock) and center (Kalil) along with a WR like Rice we would essentially be picking up 3 players with 1st round grades, and with Ronnie Brown in the backfield having a couple of strong o-lineman to run behind would make our offense better from day 1. Teams would have to stack 8-9 in the box to stop our runnng game, and with a WR core of Chambers, Hagan, and Rice we could exploit matchups in the secondary. If we stick at #9 and don't get Quinn then Okoye is the smartest move. A 19 year old kid who I have seen play live several times is a great DT, and he should only be a freshman/sophomore in college this year to boot! In 3-4 years he will hit his prime so he has plenty of room to grow and mature.

Outstanding post, makes a LOT of sense. I see the possibility of being able to trade down from the 9 spot, especially if someone high calibur happens to fall and some teams really want the guy. Giving this thread 5 stars. Good stuff.

 

[KendallCat]

A team that might look to trade up has to be convinced that we or another team might draft the player they want, otherwise there is not need to trade up.

For the sake of argument, let's say Peterson falls to us at #9. Every team knows that we will not take him because we already have Ronnie Brown and, if he's reinstated, Ricky Williams. They also know that the possiblity of Atlanta or San Francisco drafting him is very low as well. So a team like Buffalo that may be looking for a running back will have no reason to trade up unless they feel Green Bay or another team will try to move ahead of them to acquire Peterson.

The draft is a lot like a vintage car auction in that if only one person is interested the price does not go up very much, but if TWO people want the same car the price goes through the roof. You are correct in that two teams need to have the same need whether it is a RB, a DT, a QB, or any other position where they feel this one player is the last piece to complete their team. Think back to when we had Marino at QB and we could never get a running game for him - we tried Sammie Smith, Lorenzo Hampton, Konrad, JJ Johnson, Cecil Collins, and many others; however, what if we had stepped up just one year and traded a 2nd round pick to move up from our usualy spot of #16-26 in the draft and had the #8 overall pick? We could have picked up a 1000 yard rusher for the next 8-10 years to go along with Marino.

The other factor is good scouting and luck, and teams like the Bills (Thurman Thomas in the 2nd round), Dallas with Emmitt in the 20's.... did not have to use a high pick to get a franchise back. With our needs this year across the board one player will not elevate this franchise, but developing a strong line with Brown and Kalil or Blaylock and Kalil along with a good WR in the 2nd or 3rd will go a long way towards improving our offense in '07.

 

[snook]

great post! And I can see Cameron doing this to pick up Kalil. As he said "I think you build it from the center"