What you don't want to hear | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

What you don't want to hear

where's th'fish

where's th'fish

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According to Football Outsiders playoff odds, the Dolphins have a 27% chance of making the playoffs. I'm sorry to say, that sounds about right to me. Why? We have 3 tough opponents left and we're not that much better than them. If we were, we wouldn't be in close games all the time. And so much can go wrong in a close game...

I'm posting this because so many people think we'll win our last 3 without breaking a sweat. And if we don't and we miss the playoffs, then of course they'll be calling Henne a bust, Sparano an idiot, Henning the worst play-caller ever, and so on and so on... which seems terribly unfair to me and is making me feel ill before it's even happened. If we go 9-7 and miss the playoffs it still will have been a great year considering all the adversity we've faced this season, and we'll still have a lot to look forward to next year.

So knock it off with the "maybe we can get help from the Raiders" threads already.
 
Any intelligent fan would be very happy with us having a chance to make the playoffs when we kick off on the last week of the season. Just making every game of this season interesting to watch after starting 0-3 would be a miracle season, no matter if our fans see it or not. I am very happy we are still playing meaningfull games, and the $300 I spent on Sunday ticket did not go to waste.

The realality is San Diego and Indy are scary good, and one of the two will be in the Super Bowl. If you think Miami is getting in the way of that you are a bit delusional. This season was about getting a lot of young players needed experience, but we are a player or two away from being serious contenders next season, and since our team is so young, hopefully for a long time.
 
where's th'fish said:
According to Football Outsiders playoff odds, the Dolphins have a 27% chance of making the playoffs. I'm sorry to say, that sounds about right to me. Why? We have 3 tough opponents left and we're not that much better than them. If we were, we wouldn't be in close games all the time. And so much can go wrong in a close game...

I'm posting this because so many people think we'll win our last 3 without breaking a sweat. And if we don't and we miss the playoffs, then of course they'll be calling Henne a bust, Sparano an idiot, Henning the worst play-caller ever, and so on and so on... which seems terribly unfair to me and is making me feel ill before it's even happened. If we go 9-7 and miss the playoffs it still will have been a great year considering all the adversity we've faced this season, and we'll still have a lot to look forward to next year.

So knock it off with the "maybe we can get help from the Raiders" threads already.
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is vegas giving odds on this?
 
Why can't we be excited?

Sheesh, I think the dolphins will win the superbowl every year. There's no way I'm gonna look ahead and say "oh i don't think we're gonna have a chance to make it." Ruins the game.
 
35% isn't that bad, when you consider that it includes Accuscore's projection that Miami finishes 9-7 or 8-8. It also projects New England finishing 10-6.

If Miami beats its expectations to finish 10-6, there would be a much better chance than 35% of reaching the playoffs.
 
Win out and have one of 8 games fall in our favor? I find these stats more reliable than football outsiders. 4% last week is ridiculously low. I am going to trust this site that actually breaks down the probabilities and has one and only one purpose.. present the probabilities of a playoff birth.

http://www.playoffstatus.com/nfl/afcstandings.html
 
These forecasters are all very similar, but use different systems of weighting probabilities of each remaining game. I like www.nfl-forecast.com because you can also launch a Java program that lets you play around with probabilities for yourself and see how they affect the final standings. (Click on 'Launch Pro-Football Forecast.')

Using their default settings, it says Miami has a 12.8% chance of making the playoffs -- but it doesn't expect us to finish 10-6.

However, if you force it to have Miami winning the last three games, it gives us a 95% chance of getting in.
 
where's th'fish said:
According to Football Outsiders playoff odds, the Dolphins have a 27% chance of making the playoffs. I'm sorry to say, that sounds about right to me. Why? We have 3 tough opponents left and we're not that much better than them. If we were, we wouldn't be in close games all the time. And so much can go wrong in a close game...

I'm posting this because so many people think we'll win our last 3 without breaking a sweat. And if we don't and we miss the playoffs, then of course they'll be calling Henne a bust, Sparano an idiot, Henning the worst play-caller ever, and so on and so on... which seems terribly unfair to me and is making me feel ill before it's even happened. If we go 9-7 and miss the playoffs it still will have been a great year considering all the adversity we've faced this season, and we'll still have a lot to look forward to next year.

So knock it off with the "maybe we can get help from the Raiders" threads already.
Click to expand...

Well I think for me as long as we win and dont have to deal with a game like last week. I had a complete meltdown in my house in the 4th quarter after we fumbled for like the 84th time.
 
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