Whoa! Didn't See That Coming....

[finfan54]

we got beat down by hurry up. BB knew that teams would be out of shape, just like his. He just beat us to the smart punch.

Now teams will see Brady and co. on film and will prepare. Now they lose their Center for a long while. Injuries will catch up like it is with Pittsburgh. You'll all see. In Pro ball, its week to week.

We need to beat Houston. It takes care of alot of sickness from this one.

 

[armyphin]

BB knew that teams would be out of shape, just like his. He just beat us to the smart punch.

That was the key to the game.

It was the first game and it was the Patriots. Losing sucks but losing that game isn't a reason to panic.

The defense did look like poo but last season 14 teams lost to the Patriots and the guy carving up the defense was the league MVP. Some consider the guy coaching that team to be the one the greatest coaches of all time.

Odds are any team that played the Patriots last night would have walked away with the same results the Dolphins did. Last time I checked, the Steelers, Saints and Falcons all lost as well, doesn't mean they suck and their seasons are over. I suspect all three of those teams will make the playoffs. The Jets barely beat the Cowboys, the Patriots would have have carved them up just as much or worse last night.

Call me a blind homer but there are 15 more games to go and I think the Dolphins have a chance to win most of them.

 

[madmic21]

That was the key to the game.

It was the first game and it was the Patriots. Losing sucks but losing that game isn't a reason to panic.

The defense did look like poo but last season 14 teams lost to the Patriots and the guy carving up the defense was the league MVP. Some consider the guy coaching that team to be the one the greatest coaches of all time.

Odds are any team that played the Patriots last night would have walked away with the same results the Dolphins did. Last time I checked, the Steelers, Saints and Falcons all lost as well, doesn't mean they suck and their seasons are over. I suspect all three of those teams will make the playoffs. The Jets barely beat the Cowboys, the Patriots would have have carved them up just as much or worse last night.

Call me a blind homer but there are 15 more games to go and I think the Dolphins have a chance to win most of them.

It would have been nice to start with someone ****ty. A good foot forward and a game to get in game shape would have been nice. Most teams sucked air week 1

 

[ckparrothead]

The cramping issue was a big key to the game I agree. Vontae Davis missed 13 pass plays because of cramps, and Sean Smith missed one pass play, and should have missed the play where he let up that 30 yard near-TD to Aaron Hernandez. On the play previous, Sean was in coverage and after the play he got up and you could tell he was suffering full body cramps. Brady saw it, he knew what Smith's responsibilities were in that personnel grouping (covering flexed TEs) and he took advantage...threw it over top for basically a TD.

Unfortunate for Sean because otherwise he'd only given up a 10 yard completion on the day. They mostly attacked our interior, Benny Sapp and Nolan Carroll, the linebackers, etc.

 

[isaacjunk]

Re: Reggie Bush and yards per throw, one important point is that throws to RB are not quite like throws to WR in terms of completion rate and turnover risk. I don't have the numbers but I imagine they grade out somewhere between a rush and a downfield pass in terms of those percentages ( where a rush is basically 99% complete and with a 1% 'interception rating' ). Thus, this affects the distribution of how your yards come. Averaging 6.0 ypa on throws to the RB is actually not bad if the incompletion and turnover rates are very low: think about it, a 4.5 yards per carry is awesome, right? If you could get a guaranteed 3 yards every single play with no turnovers you would do it because you would score a td every drive.

 

[ckparrothead]

It's a yards per attempt figure, so it actually accounts for incompletions already.

Good point on the interceptions, but I know that Drew Brees did throw at least one interception throwing the ball to Reggie Bush, and there's also fumble risk which is higher on those catches than on carries.

 

[isaacjunk]

It's a yards per attempt figure, so it actually accounts for incompletions already.

Good point on the interceptions, but I know that Drew Brees did throw at least one interception throwing the ball to Reggie Bush, and there's also fumble risk which is higher on those catches than on carries.

Yep, it's YPA I was aware of that. My point is that if a play type X has a higher YPA vs. a play type Y, but play type X has a higher chance of getting 0 yards or negative effective yards ( i.e., incompletion / interception / sack ), play type Y might actually be a better play to run on average. The distribution of those yards gained per attempt matters. Hence the point that if you had a YPA of 3 but no deviation from that ( guaranteed 3 every play ), you'd run that play exclusively and score a td every time. This is because you just need 10 yards every 4 plays to keep the chains moving. ( I'm just making a point here of course ) It's also why 4.5 YPA on rushing plays can allow you to dominate a game.

Bringing it back to Reggie bush, his 6.0 YPA sounds bad compared to your average pass play, but I bet the distribution of those yards is more evened out than your typical pass play to a WR/TE, where you might get 15-20 yards every 4th play, 10 every 2nd play, 0 a lot of times. Throws to RB probably are more tightly grouped into the 4-8 yard gain area. This makes it easier in theory to sustain drives and thus score. Throwing to running backs = fewer interceptions and incompletions, so in a way, the distribution is probably somewhere right in between a run play and a 'typical' pass play. Thus you need to account for this vs. blindly saying 6.0 YPA is a bad # if your average passing play should net you 8.0 YPA or somesuch.

Note that I'm not saying Bush is esp. good or that even throwing to Bush often is an effective strategy, I'm just saying I don't know. My hunch is 6.0 is probably in the average range in in the NFL for throws to backs.