Why drafting a QB in the first round?

[PhinCanuck]

Every single day, I find people who state the Miami Dolphins should not take a quarterback in the first round of this year's draft. They claim the team's other needs are more important. I agree that there are many other needs the Dolphins need to address. However, I also know that those needs can also be addressed thru a later round in the draft or thru FA. When it comes to our quarterback need, I believe this need must be addressed with our first round pick. We need a franchise QB. We have not had one since Dan Marino in 1983.
Out of 32 teams in the NFL, 18 teams have starting quarterbacks drafted in the first round. 3 teams have starting quarterbacks drafted in the second round. 3 teams with SQBs drafted in the third round. 1 team with a SQB drafted in the fourth round. 3 teams with SQBs drafted in the sixth round. 1 team with a SQB drafted in the 8th round. Last, but no least, 3 teams with SQBs undrafted. No SQBs drafted in the fifth round. Funny enough, we do not have a fifth round pick this year. A little note: when it comes to teams that started 2 or more QBs this season, I am considering the QB that started more games for that team as the starter.

This is how the quarterbacks that are starting in a NFL team were drafted:

AFC East
Buffalo Bills: J. P. Losman - Draft: 2004 - 1st round (22nd pick) by the Buffalo Bills
Miami Dolphins: Joey Harrington - Draft: 2002 - 1st round (3rd pick) by the Detroit Lions
Daunte Culpepper Draft: 1999 - 1st round (11th pick) by the Minnesota Vikings
New England Patriots: Tom Brady - Draft: 2000 - 6th round (33rd pick) by the New England Patriots
New York Jets: Chad Pennington - Draft: 2000 - 1st round (18th pick) by the New York Jets

AFC North
Baltimore Ravens: Steve McNair - Draft: 1995 - 1st round (3rd pick) by the Houston Oilers
Cincinnati Bengals: Carson Palmer - Draft: 2003 - 1st round (1st pick) by the Cincinnati Bengals
Cleveland Browns: Charlie Frye - Draft: 2005 - 3rd round (3rd pick) by the Cleveland Browns
Pittsburgh Steelers: Ben Roethlisberger - Draft: 2004 - 1st round (11th pick) by the Pittsburgh Steelers

AFC South
Houston Texans: David Carr - Draft: 2002 - 1st round (1st pick) by the Houston Texans
Indianapolis Colts: Peyton Manning - Draft: 1998 - 1st round (1st pick) by the Indianapolis Colts
Jacksonville Jaguars: David Garrard Draft: 2002 - 4th round (10th pick) by the Jacksonville Jaguars
Byron Leftwich - Draft: 2003 - 1st round (7th pick) by the Jacksonville Jaguars
Tennessee Titans: Vince Young - Draft: 2006 - 1st round (3rd pick) by the Tennessee Titans

AFC West
Denver Broncos: Jay Cutler - Draft: 2006 - 1st round (11th pick) by the Denver Broncos
Kansas City Chiefs: Trent Green - Draft: 1993 - 8th round (26th pick) by the San Diego Chargers
Oakland Raiders Draft: Andrew Walter - 2005 - 3rd round (5th pick) by the Oakland Raiders
Aaron Books - Draft: 1999 - 4th round (36th pick) by the Green Bay Packers
San Diego Chargers: Philip Rivers - Draft: 2004 - 1st round (4th pick) by the New York Giants, traded to San Diego

NFC East
Dallas Cowboys: Tony Romo - Undrafted
New York Giants: Eli Manning - Draft: 2004 - 1st round (1st pick) by the San Diego Chargers, traded to NYG
Philadelphia Eagles: Jeff Garcia – Undrafted
Donovan McNabb - Draft: 1999 - 1st round (2nd pick) by the Philadelphia Eagles
Washington Redskins: Jason Campbell - Draft: 2005 - 1st round (25th pick) by the Washington Redskins

NFC North
Chicago Bears: Rex Grossman - Draft: 2003 - 1st round (22nd pick) by the Chicago Bears
Detroit Lions: Jon Kitna – Undrafted.
Green Bay Packers: Brett Favre - Draft: 1991 - 2nd round (6th pick) by the Atlanta Falcons
Minnesota Vikings: Tavaris Jackson - Draft: 2006 - 2nd round (32nd pick) by the Minnesota Vikings

NFC South
Atlanta Falcons: Michael Vick - Draft: 2001 - 1st round (1st pick) by the Atlanta Falcons
Carolina Panthers: Jake Delhomme - Undrafted
New Orleans Saints: Drew Brees - Draft: 2001 - 2nd round (1st pick) by the San Diego Chargers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Chris Simms - Draft: 2003 - 3rd round (33rd pick) by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers

NFC West
Arizona Cardinals: Matt Leinart - Draft: 2006 - 1st round (10th pick) by the Arizona Cardinals
St. Louis Rams: Marc Bulger - Draft: 2000 - 6th round (2nd pick) by the New Orleans Saints
San Francisco 49ers: Alex Smith – Draft: 2005 -1st round (1st overall)by the San Francisco 49ers
Seattle Seahawks : Matt Hasselbeck - Draft: 1998 - 6th round (34th pick) by the Green Bay Packers

Other important notes:

Indianapolis and Chicago, who played in Super Bowl XVI, have a SQB drafted in the first round. Peyton Manning, IND, (1rst rounder) was the MVP.

Pro-Bowl:
AFC: All of the QBs in this year's all-stars game were 1st rounders: Peyton Manning, IND, Carson Palmer, CIN (MVP),
Vince Young, TEN, Philip Rivers, SD (injured)
NFC: None of the QBs were drafted first round (Romo, Bulger, Brees)

For the 2006 season, two out of the five passing leaders, were drafted in the first round:

Passing Yds
1. D. Brees NO 4418 – 2nd rd
2. P. Manning IND 4397 – 1st rd
3. M. Bulger STL 4301 – 6th rd
4. J. Kitna DET 4208 - undrafted
5. C. Palmer CIN 4035 – 1st rd

This is how 1st round QBs faired against QBs drafted in later rounds when it comes to passer rating.


1. Peyton Manning 101.0 1st rounder
2. Damon Huard 98.0
3. Drew Brees 96.2
4. Donovan McNabb 95.5 1st rounder
5. Tony Romo 95.1
6. Carson Palmer 93.9 1st rounder


This is how they did with regard to touchdowns – interceptions ratio:

1. Peyton Manning 31 – 9 1st rounder
2. Carson Palmer 28 – 13 1st rounder
3. Drew Brees 26-11
4. Tom Brady 24-12
5. Eli Manning 24-17 1st rounder


Conclusion:
After doing this research, I do not believe it is strictly necessary to draft a QB in the first round, but it is a very sound theory. Teams with SQBs drafted in the first round have a better situation at QB. It seems more likely for a AFC team to draft a QB in the first round, than for a NFC team to do it. 12 out of 16 teams in the AFC have a 1st rounder, against 7 out of 16 in the NFC.
In Miami, we currently have two 1st rounders in our roster, and many are hoping to get another one in April. I cannot predict what is going to happen. Nor can I guarantee that by drafting a 1st rounder in this year’s draft things are going to improve 100%. But let me be honest, it looks darn good. What do you think?

Sources: nfl.com

 

[Pocoloco]

I bet you could say this about most positions, 1st rounders tend to do better than guys chosen in later rounds. Not always, just generally.

If Quinn is there, it's a no-brainer for us. He's got a better chance than, say, Drew Stanton, Troy Smith, Trent Edwards etc. People who are wary about 1st round Qbs are usually just scared, that's all.

 

[NMUCats]

Nice research my man. I would love to see a comparison of the % of people starting at each position in the NFL that were drafted in the first round. My hunch is offensive lineman have the lowest, but not sure about which position would have the highest. It would be so time consuming to do though.

BTW, I agree with you folks that don't think the Dolphins need a qb in the first round. You guys need to swap picks with the Bears. We'll give ya sexy Rexy and our first for your #9. Both parties walk away happy! :wink:

 

[Alex44]

There has to be a QB worth taking there. The only one would be Quinn.

Besides we have two first round QB on our roster, so it's not like that list proves a first rounder means you are a winner. The reason there are more first round QB's around is because teams give them a longer leash due to what they have invested in them.

 

[jlfin]

I bet you could say this about most positions, 1st rounders tend to do better than guys chosen in later rounds. Not always, just generally.

If Quinn is there, it's a no-brainer for us. He's got a better chance than, say, Drew Stanton, Troy Smith, Trent Edwards etc. People who are wary about 1st round Qbs are usually just scared, that's all.

That's because of the impact of the position. If the draft pick is a star (Manning, Marino, Elway) they elevate the entire team and compensate for other shortcomings. If the QB is a bust it has repercussions throughout the team as well.
The draft is always a gamble, but the odds of a QB achieving success are higher if he's one of the top rated QB's in his respective draft class. Most GM's believe that your team can never progress until you nail down the QB position 1st. The Phins have too many questions at this point, that's why they can't pass on BQ if he falls to 9. I don't think the Steelers ever believed that Roethlisberger would last until 11. They were more than happy to take him.