Why Hickey Nailed J. James pick

[roy_miami]

What business did James ever have in getting a third round grade anyway?

5 star recruit
no character concerns
no injury concerns
good size
very good combine results
very good on the field results

And on top of all that some draftnicks say he was a very good RT but he actually projects to be an even better LT. So how does somebody with all those credentials ever get projected to go lower than early second round at the very least? It seems to me he should have had a first round grade all along but he arguably could have dropped due to low bench press or showing up to the combine "flabby" or whatever. It seems to me this case is the opposite of a Keenan Allen situation where a good player fall too far due to the "group think" effect among GMs and the media.

So what am I missing?

 

[walt]

How is drafting a guy in the middle of the first round who would have been available in the second round "nailing it." Clearly, they could have gotten something for trading down to the top of the second round to get him, and we'd have more than we have now. This reach earned the pick the honor of being considered the worst pick of the draft by NFL.com. It doesn't really matter how James turns out. Even if he turns into an All Pro, it was bad drafting. I'd give Hickey a pass only if he had solid evidence that someone drafting right after us was considering taking James.

 

[fininpsl]

What business did James ever have in getting a third round grade anyway?

5 star recruit
no character concerns
no injury concerns
good size
very good combine results
very good on the field results

And on top of all that some draftnicks say he was a very good RT but he actually projects to be an even better LT. So how does somebody with all those credentials ever get projected to go lower than early second round at the very least? It seems to me he should have had a first round grade all along but he arguably could have dropped due to low bench press or showing up to the combine "flabby" or whatever. It seems to me this case is the opposite of a Keenan Allen situation where a good player fall too far due to the "group think" effect among GMs and the media.

So what am I missing?

Nothing. The only "negative" I see associated with James is that he played RT and not LT in college. IMHO you are correct. The issue is groupthink. Doesn't mean he will or won't pan out, but every year there are players that media and the fans miss wildly on as compared to what the NFL thinks about a player.

 

[tay0365]

Projecting is a major part of the draft, without it we wouldn't have taken Tannehill. If you never project and only take safe "plug and play" prospects you will have a below average team at the NFL level.

Sometimes you need to take chances, and sometimes you need to make sure the talent you get will have little chance of failing. Miami needed O-line help at R-tackle and Guard, if they got a superstar...Awesome, but most important, the person had to be a player that you could depend on.

With James, you get a much higher floor, then you do ceiling, but the kid still has room to get better. Now in the mean time, as he attempts to become a better tackle, Tannehill will begin to feel more and more comfortable that the pass-rush will not be coming from outside either tackle position, which will allow him to make better reads, and less turnovers.

Hopefully James will eventually become at the very least a solid run-blocker, but for now Miami has a very experienced and effective pass-blocker.

Edit:

A good example of the "Sometimes you need to take chances, and sometimes you need to make sure the talent you get will have little chance of failing." that I spoke of is, Miami took a safe pick in the 1st, but in the 2nd and 3rd, they took a huge chance with huge reward.

 

[FinfanInBuffalo]

How is drafting a guy in the middle of the first round who would have been available in the second round "nailing it." Clearly, they could have gotten something for trading down to the top of the second round to get him, and we'd have more than we have now. This reach earned the pick the honor of being considered the worst pick of the draft by NFL.com. It doesn't really matter how James turns out. Even if he turns into an All Pro, it was bad drafting. I'd give Hickey a pass only if he had solid evidence that someone drafting right after us was considering taking James.

Hey, can I make up a premise for the argument too? Here goes:

He nailed it because he drafted a player that everyone knew was the best player at that spot. Clearly every team that followed us would have drafted James. It was considered the best pick in the last 20 years of the draft according to some. He is a guaranteed hall of famer and any time you can get a HOF player without giving up extra picks you "nailed it".

It is easy to make a strong argument when you can create your own reality.

 

[Padfoot]

They didn't project with Tannehill.... They drafted him to play QB he played QB in college with the exception of his first year I believe. The type of projecting i'm talking about is taking a guy that played on position in college and asking hi to play another position in the NFL.... a lot of teams do it... but when you have glaring holes that you need to fill RIGHT NOW... it's not a good idea to gamble like that.

Tannehill only played QB for a year and a half, he played WR for longer than that. But even with a player staying at the same position you have to project if he will be able to improve to a point to compete at the NFL level.

Juwan James played well for 4 years at the college level. That doesn't automatically mean he will play well at the NFL level. There's really no such thing as a safe pick. Some picks may be "safer" but even the most productive player in college may simply have hit his ceiling already.

It's difficult to know which players will end up worth their picks, and maybe James ends up being worth the #19 pick, but until we see it happen, I just can't see a reasonable argument that he nailed the pick. The draft isn't just about next year, it's about the next several years. Maybe picking James was the right decision for 2014 but what about 2015 or 2016? What new need will we have then that we might have to reach for in the draft that we would've already filled (and at an arguably greater talent level) if we had gone for value instead of need?

 

[Padfoot]

Hey, can I make up a premise for the argument too? Here goes:

He nailed it because he drafted a player that everyone knew was the best player at that spot. Clearly every team that followed us would have drafted James. It was considered the best pick in the last 20 years of the draft according to some. He is a guaranteed hall of famer and any time you can get a HOF player without giving up extra picks you "nailed it".

It is easy to make a strong argument when you can create your own reality.

The difference being his premise was reasonable and probable. Your's is not.

If a GM is too scared to take a risk in trading down that's fine but he better be pretty damn sure about the prospect he's taking and equally unsure about the other options. Otherwise he's giving up free players.

 

[ojmcduffy]

O.K let's just put this James was a wild reach idiocy to bed. Reaching from #25 to #19 is not a wild reach. The player we wanted was availible when we picked, so you take him it's really simple.. We got the 5th best tackle availible. You can't have watched this team last season and not see how bad our oline was.

 

[JTech194]

Hey, can I make up a premise for the argument too? Here goes:

He nailed it because he drafted a player that everyone knew was the best player at that spot. Clearly every team that followed us would have drafted James. It was considered the best pick in the last 20 years of the draft according to some. He is a guaranteed hall of famer and any time you can get a HOF player without giving up extra picks you "nailed it".

It is easy to make a strong argument when you can create your own reality.

I think he nailed it because he drafted a guy with a high probability of starting from day one, because he's started from day one his entire football career. At a position that we need somebody to start from day one. I guess you have a crystal ball knowing that James would have been there when we picked again. No need to take the risk. Did that last year and it didn't work. This was not the year to take huge risks

 

[JTech194]

Time will tell if he "nailed it". Calm yourself

The concept of how he went about the draft he nailed. Who knows if any of three guys will actually be any good. But that's the case with all draft picks

 

[JTech194]

Tannehill only played QB for a year and a half, he played WR for longer than that. But even with a player staying at the same position you have to project if he will be able to improve to a point to compete at the NFL level.

Juwan James played well for 4 years at the college level. That doesn't automatically mean he will play well at the NFL level. There's really no such thing as a safe pick. Some picks may be "safer" but even the most productive player in college may simply have hit his ceiling already.

It's difficult to know which players will end up worth their picks, and maybe James ends up being worth the #19 pick, but until we see it happen, I just can't see a reasonable argument that he nailed the pick. The draft isn't just about next year, it's about the next several years. Maybe picking James was the right decision for 2014 but what about 2015 or 2016? What new need will we have then that we might have to reach for in the draft that we would've already filled (and at an arguably greater talent level) if we had gone for value instead of need?

Well we don't know if Tannehill will progress into a franchise QB. Everyone said Ireland reached taking him that high because he didn't play QB his entire college career. And in today's NFL you have to win enough games before you get the luxury of making draft picks for the future. If Hickey does not win enough games this year, he won't be here for the future so... I say he nailed the pick picking the best guy that can step in and possibly start from day one.