If anything, you could argue that Rosen is better because he's already had NFL experience and learning. He's already done the 'sit for a year' thing.
Then there's the fact that Herbert's question marks are the same ones that Rosen had/has.
Tua's talent Towers over Herbert's and if we dont take him then there's none of these guys (beside Burrow) that you know for a fact is better than Rosen.
You are asking why draft someone like Herbert when we already have in Rosen a prospect with a similar skill set and weaknesses, correct?
The way I see it, because we can't be sure, still, that they are so similar. We can't be sure which, if either, will emerge as a true NFL talent. Herbert represents another turn at bat. But nowhere near as much of a gamble as Tua. Because, no one is suggesting we trade up for him. Most would be fine with taking him much later than 5, too. If we can manage it.
Tua is a highstakes gamble. If he works out, sky may be the limit. However, if we trade up for Tua, the odds of Tua paying off enough to justify his price (certain dependable starter and frequent pro-bowler), are less than about .25, or 25% for. More likely he will flop, given the price we'd pay. But, if we take him at 5 or later, and Tua only manages to be as good as say . . . Tannehill, then the price is much more palatable and closer to his actual worth.
I think hope that Tua will end up a HOF level player aren't really much more realistic than they are for any of the top 4 QBs in this draft. With patience, all could be coached to play better and have stellar careers. It could happen. But we can't bank on it happening with any of them. So, that can't really play much of a part in the here and now decision by Grier, IMHO.
