Why Ryan Tannehill Matters More than the New GM or any Other Current Hubbub | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Why Ryan Tannehill Matters More than the New GM or any Other Current Hubbub

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Shouright

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Since the first year of the salary cap in 1994, the correlation between net yards per pass attempt (net YPA) differential and win percentage in the NFL (including the playoffs) has been 0.83. Net YPA differential is therefore associated with nearly 70% of the variance in win percentage in the NFL.

During the same period of time, the correlation between net YPA on offense and win percentage (including the playoffs) has been 0.66. Net YPA on offense is therefore associated with 44% of the variance in win percentage in the NFL.

So, teams buy themselves about 26% of the variance (70% minus 44%) in win percentage in the NFL by defending the pass well.

By contrast, they buy themselves 44% of the variance in win percentage in the NFL by passing the ball well on offense.

Obviously these figures are discrepant by nearly 20%, and net YPA on offense is a better predictor of winning than the opposing team's net YPA (net YPA on defense, if you will).

Now, let's take a look at the quarterbacks who have had at least 1,000 pass attempts since 1994, in order of their career net YPA during that period -- note the highlighted column in the far right of the table, which is a measure of net YPA in standardized units, with 100 being average:

http://www.pro-football-reference.c...pos_is_db=Y&draft_pos_is_k=Y&draft_pos_is_p=Y

Obviously the quarterbacks in the table encompass a great many number of teams, GMs, head coaches, surrounding casts on offense and defense, and other variables, yet I believe we see a strong and distinct correlation in the table between their net YPA and the consensus perceptions of their individual quality or ability, some exceptions to the rule notwithstanding.

In other words, the quarterbacks generally regarded as better had better net YPAs during that period, while those generally regarded as worse had worse net YPAs. Therefore it could be said that net YPA is primarily a function of quarterback quality or ability, rather than other variables on offense.

It's "a quarterback-driven league," as has been said elsewhere.

It's fun and interesting to think about how the Miami Dolphins franchise may move forward with new personnel atop its leadership structure, but in the near future, the success of the franchise will still be riding on #17. :)
 
Well based on this Flacco should have been a Super Bowl threat because he won it last year, Brees should have been able to win it without the head coach last year, and Dan Marino should have at least 5 rings. Teams and systems still matter as much as any number says otherwise. These numbers come from other places than a successful QB, and a team supporting the QB.
 
Tannehill has 32 games under his resume. Any competent G.M. can make an honest, outside perspective evaluation on his strengths and weaknesses.

You can probably win on average of 9 games using a ball- control offense with Tannehill. Super Bowls though?
 
Question: If Ryan hits a few of those missed long passes to a wide open Wallace wouldn't his YPA skyrocket ?

Fix that and all is good going forward stats wise :)
 
Not being on your ass 60+ times has to help too
 
shouright said:
Net YPA = (passing yards - sack yards)/(pass attempts + sacks)
Click to expand...

There is no stat for fear of getting beat down. I know you had the stat of quick release time, but zero time isn't helpful to a young QB either.
 
10 out of the top 20 have never won a SB. #43, #51, #69, #80 won a SB. The players in slots 1 - 9 have 4 combined SBs. The players in slots 10 - 15 have 11 combined SBs. The stats are also skewed in many cases because of the 1994 start. Many of the players on the list include only a portion of their career.

It is about the team. QB is the most important position, but you do not need to be in the top 5 of net YPA to be a competitive team or to win the SB. And net YPA (as we all know) is a passing offense stat not just a QB stat. Differential is a better measure because defense is taken into account as well.
 
Ruckus45 said:
Not being on your ass 60+ times has to help too
Click to expand...

Sacks hurt your net YPA. Tannehill compares more favorably to his peers and good to very good QBs from the past using YPA rather than net YPA. Net YPA makes sense when evaluating the efficiency of an OFFENSE because the OL is part of the offense. Using net YPA to evaluate a QB unfairly penalizes QBs with crap for OLs (see 2013 Miami Dolphins).
 
shouright said:
Net YPA = (passing yards - sack yards)/(pass attempts + sacks)
Click to expand...

Until you stop using a stat that immensely incorporates a horrible offensive line as your sole reference to judge QB play none of your posts/analytical thinking will be worth a ****.

That stat shows how effective your entire passing offense is, not just the QB. How hard is that for you to comprehend?
 
mnphinfan said:
Until you stop using a stat that immensely incorporates a horrible offensive line as your sole reference to judge QB play none of your posts/analytical thinking will be worth a ****.

That stat shows how effective your entire passing offense is, not just the QB. How hard is that for you to comprehend?
Click to expand...
Did you see the disclaimer at the bottom of the original post? :)
 
Using net yards per attempt — which deducts sacks from a passer’s production — is the simplest and best way to predict future performance.
Click to expand...
http://www.footballperspective.com/correlating-passing-stats-with-wins/

Using YPA instead of net YPA produces the same pattern of results as in the original post in terms of the correlations involved, with a similar correlation between QBs' YPAs and the consensus perceptions of their individual ability. There isn't a significant difference in this regard between YPA and net YPA, though as noted above, net YPA is more predictive of future performance.
 
shouright said:
Did you see the disclaimer at the bottom of the original post? :)
Click to expand...

Yes I did. But that doesn't mean that I can't try to persuade those who's opinions I feel are incorrect, much like yourself.

Don't get me wrong, I appreciate all of the work you put into your threads. I just think that using that stat entirely throws off your argument because of how much emphasis it places on an offensive line, no matter how good or bad it is. YPA is a much better stat for a QB as it doesn't incorporate the offensive lines play. Although it isn't a perfect stat though because it doesn't take into account drops by either the offense or defense.

I choose to use both YPA and the watching of the all 22 game film. With that I can see that Tannehill is a young QB, who has accuracy issues with his deep ball. But one that has improved many things (ie. defensive recognition/choosing proper play at LOS, ball placement, ball security, short and mid range accuracy) in his craft immensely. Once this kid gets the deep ball to Wallace down he will be a top 10 QB for sure.
 
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